49ers-Rams Preview: Do or Die

Can the Niners stop Stafford, Kupp, and Nacua?

Jan 7, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Puka Nacua (17) catches a touchdown pass against San Francisco 49ers cornerback Charvarius Ward (7) during the first quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images / Darren Yamashita-Imagn Images

The Los Angeles Rams are averaging more than 32 points a game in their last four with Matthew Stafford playing his best football of the year. The 49ers defense held Chicago to fewer than 100 net yards passing and 68 yards rushing.  Who maintains their momentum?

The Rams depth on the defensive line should allow their defense to hold up in the 4th and that may decide the game. However, if the 49ers offensive line can protect Brock Purdy, he can target a vulnerable LA secondary.

WEATHER
There’s a 35% chance of rain at kickoff. Only a quarter-inch of rain is expected throughout the day so it should be light rainfall with mild winds. Whether that weather is enough for Purdy to become turnover-prone, we’ll see.

INJURIES
SF Out: Trent Williams, Malik Mustapha, Ben Bartch. Questionable: Nick Bosa, Dre Greenlaw, Isaac Guerendo. Greenlaw is expected to play and will give the team an emotional lift. Guerendo is expected to play as well.

LAR: Cobie Durant their DB1 is out, he allowed just two receptions on seven targets against Buffalo. TE Tyler Higbee is also out. Several players are listed as questionable including OL starters C Beaux Limmer and LT Alaric Jackson.  

49ERS ON OFFENSE
Isaac Guerendo is questionable but I expect him to play as the Niners have to go all-out for the win. The question is how effective will Guerendo be playing with a foot injury? The answer is key. If the Rams don’t have to load up to stop the run they can flood the field with DBs and deny Purdy’s passing windows.

If Guerendo is limited, the Niners can turn to Patrick Taylor Jr., who is effective inside but not a breakaway threat. Kyle Shanahan could also turn to Deebo Samuel, who is demanding more touches. Doing that in the run game is risky as Samuel is averaging just 2.9 yards per carry with a long of 12. If ever there was a time to use Jacob Cowing and Ricky Pearsall in jet sweeps, it’s now.

George Kittle didn’t play in the first matchup.  He typically shines in prime time and will be essential in this game to get big gains and attack in the red zone.

The Rams defense depends on their pass rush led by defensive rookie of the year favorite Jared Verse and his Florida State teammate Braden Fiske. LA looks to pressure opposing quarterbacks to protect their susceptible secondary, made weaker with Durant out. Buffalo targeted CB2 Darious Williams with success and also had explosives against the safeties. Former Niner Akhello Witherspoon will get the start to replace Durant.

RAMS ON OFFENSE
The Niners have yet to play the Rams with both Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua healthy. Baptism by fire for a Niner secondary that will be missing Mustapha, though that will have more of an impact in the run game with the Rams looking to run frequently with Kyren Williams. While Greenlaw likely returns, the Niners can’t expect high impact or volume from him as he gets into football shape.

In the first game Sean McVay prioritized throwing at Charvarius Ward, now he can target both Ward and Ji’Ayir Brown to get the ball to Kupp and Nacua. In matchups where Nacua has played the full game, he’s gone over 110 yards in all six. He had 12 catches for 162 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo.

The Rams like to pass for touchdowns in the red zone, frequently using designed rollouts with Stafford. Knowing this, will the Niners counter with blitzes and disguised coverages? Nick Bosa is listed as questionable, but the Niners need him for this game to pressure Stafford into mistakes.

PREDICTION (8-5)
Losing Mustapha is a killer, which underlines just how important the rookie is to this defense. Without Mustapha, the run defense loses a hitter, and the pass defense hands McVay and Stafford another target in Brown. Look for Nacua to have a huge game.

Stafford is playing exceptionally well, a reflection of the offensive line coalescing. His passes look laser-guided. With a limited Bosa, I don’t see the Niners getting the necessary heat on Stafford to turn the ball over.

While it may rain during the game it’s projected to be a light rain so I think that narrative could be overplayed. The Rams secondary without Durant can be had, provided Purdy gets enough time. If Verse and Fiske are too much for the Niners patchwork OL to handle, I would look for Shanahan to call designed rollouts of his own.

The essence of it. Guerendo plays but he’s limited, the Rams can then add a DB and that’s trouble for Purdy. On the opposite side, Stafford playing this well with a healthy Kupp and Nacua, and two Niners to target, is too much to overcome.

Rams 31 49ers 20

PLAYOFFS
Win and the 49ers cling to hope, their playoff chances are currently at 4%. A loss to the Rams and the Niners fall to 1-4 in the division, the Rams and Seattle would clinch the tiebreakers. Arizona could clinch with a win over the Rams or the 49ers. Lose both and the Niners would have a chance, but it’s about a 1% chance.

For the wild card, if the Niners lose to the Rams and Detroit, and Washington wins at least two of their final four games, the Commanders clinch a wild card spot and the 49ers are eliminated.

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