49ers-Seahawks Game Preview: The Time Bomb Problem

Will the Niners find their focus and identity in Seattle?

Dec 10, 2023; Santa Clara, California, USA; Seattle Seahawks running back Kenneth Walker III (9) runs with the ball after making a catch against the San Francisco 49ers in the fourth quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images / Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

When Kyle Shanahan as defacto GM chose to double down on veterans, he took the risk that those players would remain healthy and productive. This season has shown what can happen when that risk collapses.

No Christian McCaffrey and the red zone offense falls from 1st to 30th. No Dre Greenlaw and the run defense drops from 10th in yards per carry to 22nd. Invest in a top-heavy team and the margin for error approaches zero.

What the 49ers are experiencing right now is a time bomb. The bomb doesn’t explode provided vets are healthy and producing, or young players and free agents cover any slippage. Instead, the reverse has happened, key vets aren’t healthy or delivering, the depth is decimated from poor drafts and free agent signings, and the time bomb explodes.

Props to Vish Kumaran for talking about this roster gap with Rob Guerrera this week. I’ve talked about this as well in discussing Shanahan’s judgment mistakes as GM.

Not enough starters produce and not enough depth to cover them. 2-3 and inconsistent as a result.

49ERS ON OFFENSE

Shanahan is 0-5 over the last year against the top defensive coordinators who excel in simulated pressure and blitzing. Seattle coach Mike Macdonald is one of them, confusing Brock Purdy into four picks against Baltimore last year.

The question for Macdonald is if his scheme can overcome injuries. The Seahawks haven’t had their starting four defensive linemen together for weeks. Their best pass rusher Boye Mafe is finally back and will play Thursday. However, DT Byron Murphy, DB Riq Woolen, LB Uchenna Nwosu, and LB Derick Hall look like they are out.

With Seattle losing two linebackers and a top corner, the Niners should have more success in the red zone. George Kittle and Jordan Mason will have the opportunity for big games.

The Seattle defense is 18th in yards per carry, they’re vulnerable. The Seahawks and Niners are nearly mirror images in pass defense in yards and yards per attempt.

Key Matchups

Brock Purdy and Kyle Shanahan vs. Mike Macdonald

Can the Niners solve sim pressure when Macdonald is forced to use backups? Macdonald knows how to tempt Purdy into mistakes, scheme vs. talent will be put to the test. Macdonald was hired in Seattle to win this matchup specifically.

Brandon Aiyuk back to football shape will be key in giving Purdy a target for quick throws. Shanahan has to milk the run game. Having Mafe back will help Seattle bring some pressure.

George Kittle and the 49er receivers vs. the Seattle back seven in the red zone

The Niners have to turn around the red zone problem in order to win this game. Field goals won’t cut it.

SEATTLE ON OFFENSE

Geno Smith is having a year under former UW offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Smith leads the league in passing yards and is 3rd in completion percentage at 71.9%.

As Niners fans have seen, Smith can get claustrophobic in a crowded pocket and make mistakes. However, the Niner secondary has yet to have a pick this year. If Smith plays a clean game that’s a problem.

The Seattle triumvirate at receiver has an edge, particularly with Charvarius Ward not being 100%. The Niners have had communication mistakes in dealing with bunch packages, Grubb will test that.

Seattle has the most pass attempts in the league, Macdonald wants to see more emphasis on the run game this week. That makes sense against San Francisco, who is vulnerable to the run, and to backs on screens and checkdowns.

Key Matchups

Kenneth Walker III and Zach Charbonnet vs. the 49ers back seven

De’Vondre Campbell will be targeted early and often. The Niners have had some problems with tackling in recent weeks at safety, Malik Mustapha and Ji’Ayir Brown need to play well or Seattle can get big plays from their backs.

The Seattle receivers vs. the Niners secondary

The Seahawks have a decided speed edge. I would expect the Niners to open the game by tailoring coverage to protect against explosives, but that allows Seattle to move the chains underneath. The Niner front four will need to win their matchups without blitzing. Seattle’s offensive line has had injury problems but is getting healthy. They are 3rd in the league in most sacks against.

The 49ers defense vs. the 2nd half

The lack of depth in the defensive line can show up in the second half, particularly in the team’s first short-rest game. Smith will have more time to throw.

PREDICTION (2-3)

Can scheme overcome a lack of talent? That is Macdonald’s challenge in this game. My guess is execution will be inconsistent, but enough to generate at least one turnover. The Niners will improve in the red zone to compensate.

What Seattle has done in past games isn’t an accurate measure as they’ve been decimated by injury and have key players coming back, particularly Mafe. Their context is game-to-game.

I don’t like the matchups on defense for the Niners, the game depends on the D line getting home without any help and that’s a tall order for four quarters given their lack of quality depth. I think the Niners will fade in both trenches in the second half and that carries Seattle to the win.

Seahawks 27 Niners 24

Download and follow The Best 49ers Podcast.