Are the 49ers a Good Bet to Win the Super Bowl?

Niners (+1600) among the favorites, but should you bet it?

The San Francisco 49ers enter 2022 as one of the most polarizing teams in the NFL. Some pundits have picked them to win the Super Bowl while others think this season could get more crooked than Lombard Street. Let’s try to make sense of it, as we answer the question, “Are the 49ers a good bet to win the Super Bowl?”

According to Oddsshark.com, which displays odds for various online sportsbooks in one place, the 49ers opened at +1300 to win Super Bowl LVII, but currently sit between +1400 and +1600. This discrepancy is a shining example of why it’s always best to shop around before making any bet. The days of having one bookie, casino or website should be a thing of the past in today’s lush betting landscape.

At 16-to-1, the 49ers provide a lot of value to bettors. The 49ers have one of the most talented rosters in the league and one of the most competent coaching staffs. So, why aren’t they heavier favorites to get that elusive sixth ring? Trey Lance. The polarizing 22-year old has a low floor and a high ceiling, so a futures bet on the 49ers is essentially a bet on Lance. His physical tools are off the charts but his lack of college and NFL playing time make Lance the perfect QB to divide bettors.

Having Jimmy Garoppolo in the fold is nice insurance for 49ers’ futures bettors in case Lance gets hurt. It makes the team stronger. But a healthy Lance would likely have to struggle mightily for Garoppolo to take the keys, and by that time, the 49ers season – and this bet – might be over.

Reasons not to bet it

*The 49ers face a brutal gauntlet Weeks 7-14 which includes back-to-back games against the Chiefs and Rams as well as tough matchups with the Chargers, Cardinals, Saints, Dolphins and Buccaneers. If San Francisco doesn’t get off to a hot start in its first six games against weaker competition, bettors could be in trouble.

*Outside of LT Trent Williams, the 49ers’ offensive line is inexperienced. Left guard Aaron Banks and right guard Spencer Burford have never started an NFL game and center Jake Brendel has only made two starts. Right tackle Mike McGlinchey is a better run blocker than pass blocker and is coming off a knee injury which has him wearing a brace. An inexperienced offensive line and an inexperienced quarterback are not typically recipes for betting success.

Reasons to bet it

*The 49ers had a super bowl roster last season and have improved since. Most notably in their secondary where they added cornerback Charvarius Ward (Free Agent from KC) and rookie nickelback Samuel Womack III, who notched three INTs in the preseason. The pass rush should be much improved too with the addition of Drake Jackson opposite Nick Bosa. The 49ers also overhauled their special teams with several key additions including Ray-Ray McCloud who led the NFL in punt return yards and finished fourth in kick return yardage.

*Value. The 49ers ticket will pay better than other teams who have more question marks. The Rams for instance, have a quarterback with lingering arm issues and very questionable depth at key positions, but pay just +1100. The 49ers and Packers were pretty evenly matched last season, and Green Bay got worse in the offseason (losing Davante Adams and Za’Darius Smith) while the 49ers improved, yet the Packers can be found for +1000 or +1200.

Verdict: Take a swing at +1600 and cross your fingers Trey Lance is the real deal.

Pro tips

*Because the 49ers season starts with two soft opponents (Chicago and Seattle) you’re better off betting this now “pre-flop” than you are once the season starts. If San Francisco starts 2-0, these odds will be less favorable in season.

*The 49ers don’t have to win the Super Bowl for you to profit from this bet. Hedging if the 49ers reach the Super Bowl or the NFC Championship game is on the table.

Tony Farmer can be reached via @Tonyshealthtips on Twitter.