Chase Young and the 49ers' 2024 Draft

If Young leaves in free agency the past would predict the Niners would use their first-round pick on an edge, and the weakest areas of the roster would be neglected at the top of the Niners draft yet again.

Deadline trade acquisition Chase Young had an immediate impact in his debut, raising the question if the 49ers should look to re-sign him rather than rent him for the rest of this season.

If Young leaves in free agency, the past would predict the Niners would use their first-round pick on an edge, and the weakest areas of the roster would be neglected at the top of the Niners draft yet again.

During the Kyle Shanahan Era, the 49ers have used only one first-round pick at offensive line, Mike McGlinchey in 2018. He proved to be a mistake. I was pounding the table for Derwin James heading into that draft.

Secondary is even more abandoned. San Francisco has not used a first or second-round pick on a defensive back or safety since Shanahan and John Lynch arrived in 2017.

If Young continues to perform well, I believe the Niners need to re-sign him not just for the production but to save them from themselves, and the reflexive first-round defensive line pick.

If the Niners were to take an edge in the first, it would mean that of their eight first-round picks in the Shanahan Era, half of them would have been spent on the defensive line.

That’s not how a championship team is built.

The First Round of The 2024 Draft

Shanahan’s cap blueprint calls for going cheap on the offensive line outside of left tackle. That eliminates spending much in free agency, so long-term starters at right guard and right tackle need to come from the draft.

Colton McKivitz was given an opportunity this year and has played at the level of a backup swing tackle. A new starter is needed.

The Niners passed on a tackle in this year’s draft, with Shanahan citing that potential targets lacked time at right tackle or didn’t fit their profile. That’s not the case in this draft as many of the top tackles have experience on the right side and can play outside zone in the run game.

The Niners are projected to pick from 25-32. By that point the top four tackles in the draft are gone, Olu Fashanu of Penn State, Joe Alt of Notre Dame, Oregon State’s Taliese Fuaga, and J.C. Latham of Alabama.

Jordan Morgan (Arizona) 6-6/320 – Morgan has made a successful recovery from ACL surgery last year. Pro Football Focus gives him an 82.3 overall grade for the year, last year he was 82/79 pass/run. He’s given up two sacks and 11 hurries, strengths are his footwork, hands, and consistency.

Amarius Mims (Georgia) 6-7/340 – Mims only has a limited number of games played and may choose to return to Georgia. If he stays, he could be a top-ten pick in 2025. If he leaves now, he’s taken on physical tools, size with a good bend, length, and strength, smart angles, and high potential.

Kingsley Suamataia (BYU) 6-6/325 – Suamataia was 3rd on Bruce Feldman’s annual Freaks List for the top athletes in college football. He plays faster than linebackers at a tackle’s size. BYU has clocked him at 21.5 on the GPS and his coaches believe Suamataia can run the 40 in the 4.8’s. Only six offensive linemen have ever run 4.85 or faster at the NFL Combine. If he runs that fast, he’ll move up draft boards.

Suamataia has long arms and gets out in pulling and blocks at the second level. In pass pro, scouts indicate he needs work on balance, hand location, and letting edges get into his body. He has experience on the right side, starting there all of last year. A right tackle with Suamataia’s speed would be handy against quick edges like Micah Parsons and Haason Reddick.

Tyler Guyton (Oklahoma) 6-7/327 –Guyton is an effective run blocker in space with agility and speed, but he plays too upright and lacks leverage and power, making him vulnerable in pass protection.

Patrick Paul (Houston) 6-7/315 – Long arms make him tough to beat once he locks in on the defender. Smaller faster edges can beat him with speed and bend as Paul is not an effective bender. He’s solid in the running game.

Others: Graham Barton of Duke, USC’s Jonah Monheim and Washington’s Troy Fautanu play tackle in college but are expected to move inside in the pros. Fautanu is having an excellent season for UW but had a bad game against Utah, allowing five pressures.

Second-round picks at tackle include Notre Dame’s Blake Fisher, a highly intelligent player with physical tools but he hasn’t put it all together yet. He’s played right tackle throughout his career.

If the Niners don’t go right tackle in the first, the collective groan from the Faithful will be heard far and wide. The top player from other positions projected to be available at the Niners pick includes:

Edge - Chop Robinson (Penn State) 6-3/254 – The 4th ranked edge, he runs a 4.47 40 and a 4.22 shuttle. This year he has three sacks with a forced fumble in nine games. He’s 9th on the Freaks List and has the fast first step and bend the Niners look for at edge. Penn State is a proven program at defensive end, producing Micah Parsons and Arnold Ebikite.

Defensive Back - Terrion Arnold (Alabama) 6-0/196 – A fast riser up the draft boards, Arnold has the physicality Steve Wilks wants as a corner that can stop the run while having the skills for man coverage outside. He has 49 tackles with three interceptions and eight pass breakups.

Wide Receiver – Xavier Legette (South Carolina) 6-3/227 – A Deebo clone with size, speed and YAC ability. Another YAC ace is Malachi Corley of Western Kentucky 5-11/210, went for over 1,200 yards last year and is on pace to do it again this year. He has nine TDs with a long of 70.

Keeping Chase Young is expensive, but he’s a proven talent at 24. Cap expert Jason Hurley lays out a scenario where the Niners can keep Young and extend Brandon Aiyuk, provided Young is willing to sign a big bonus backloaded contract.

I’d rather keep Young and draft Suamataia than draft Chop Robinson, get a lower tier tackle, and a lower tier everything else. By using all of the roster tools available to them, the Niners can upgrade the roster where it’s needed most in the draft.