ESPN Picks 49ers to Finish 3rd in NFC

Agree or disagree?

ESPN football analyst Bill Barnwell is out with his playoff predictions in the NFC, picking the Niners to finish 3rd behind Philadelphia and Dallas. Fox Sports Colin Cowherd and CBS Sports Will Brinson have made division picks and take the Niners to win the NFC West. Brinson has the Niners as the No. 1 seed in the NFC but also predicts they will not win the Super Bowl.

A review of the reasoning behind the picks and camp news for the NFC contenders In Barnwell’s order.

1. Philadelphia

Biggest Issue: The Eagles lost five starters and both coordinators. They will be depending on rookies and 2nd year players to step into starting roles. Philly took a hit in losing offensive coordinator Shane Steichen but benefitted from addition by subtraction on defense with Jonathan Gannon out and Vic Fangio protégé Sean Desai in, emphasizing physicality.
The talk of camp: Sub 4.4 speed edge rookie Nolan Smith has wowed in camp, with injured starter Haason Reddick saying Smith has “greatness” in him. Top-10 pick Jalen Carter broke a blocking sled in OTAs and has dominated at times. Good reviews for Cam Jurgens at guard with mixed opinions on Nakobe Dean at linebacker.
The camp concern: Free agent safety signing Terrell Edmunds has not earned a starting job and rumors indicate general manager Howie Roseman may be looking to trade for a starting safety.
Camp MVP: Jalen Hurts. No turnovers, big numbers, high completion rate. A.J. Brown has looked very good as well.
Barnwell’s case: From the league’s easiest schedule last year to the toughest this year, lot of departures, but he says the NFC is so weak Philly has room for error to absorb a few more losses this year but still land the No. 1 seed.
My take: Philly has the NFC’s best quarterback and offensive line, the deepest defensive line, and an excellent set of playmakers. The Niners can’t match up in pass protection as the Eagles beat the Niners twice for the No. 1 seed and a return to the Super Bowl.

2. Dallas

Biggest issue: Dak Prescott protecting the ball and Mike McCarthy having more say in the offense. Prescott said he would not be throwing 10 interceptions again this year, and then threw a pick in practice the next day. Dak has thrown 12 touchdowns and five picks in camp so far.
The talk of camp: All-Pro guard Zack Martin is holding out and wants a new deal. Martin has been First-Team All-Pro in four of the last five years. He’s the second highest paid at the position behind Atlanta’s Chris Lindstrom and wants to be No. 1. Jerry Jones says the Cowboys already have their money tied up in Micah Parsons and other stars but is confident he can re-work a deal with Martin.
The camp concern: The offensive line needs to solidify given injury troubles in the past. Martin holding out doesn’t allow for the line to build continuity in camp. Prescott’s pick troubles and Tony Pollard coming off that rough ankle injury from the Niners playoff game are additional concerns.
Camp MVP: Each camp has a standout, but following camp coverage leaguewide it appears there are two high-impact players who have taken their game to another level. The 49ers Brandon Aiyuk and the Cowboys Micah Parsons. Uncoverable and unblockable.
Barnwell’s case: Prescott‘s picks should “regress to the mean,” Dallas is top-five in point differential, and the defense is one of the league’s best. He also points to smart signings in Stephon Gilmore and Brandin Cooks.
My take: The Cowboys go as far as Dak allows, and he throws picks in a crowded pocket when he hurries, can’t set his feet, or step into the throw. Prescott will be under tremendous pressure against the Niners and Eagles' defensive lines. McCarthy is a limiting factor balanced by a great defensive coordinator in Dan Quinn. I think Dallas will improve and Parsons is scary, but in the games that matter most, Dak’s gonna Dak.

3. San Francisco

Biggest issue: Pass protection. With a clean pocket, Brock Purdy picks defenses apart. Under pressure, they pick him apart. Dallas with Micah Parsons in all-world mode will be a handful, and so will Philly coming in waves with the pure speed of Reddick and Smith. Colton McKivitz is winning his 1-on-1’s, but giving up multiple sacks in 11-on-11. On Monday and Tuesday, Purdy dropped back 27 times and was sacked seven. Part of that’s camp, also an elite defensive line, and the right side of the offensive line.
The talk of camp: How talented this team is nearly everywhere, they’re stacked, and the rookies and undrafted free agents are playing well to provide depth. The quarterback debates will sort out, Purdy will keep progressing and I expect he’ll be near last year’s form by the opener and ready to go.
The camp concern: Nick Bosa’s holdout, but the Niners know his market value and have to settle on how much money will be guaranteed. Meanwhile, Bosa is fine working out on his own, he’s always ready. The larger concern may be Spencer Burford, who came into camp with a more developed body but is still getting beat in pass protection.
Camp MVP: Brandon Aiyuk. 23 catches in 7 days. Can’t cover him in a phone booth, that sets up Aiyuk as the top target, and makes things easier for Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, and George Kittle. With time to throw, the weapons on this team are unmatched and it’ll be fun to watch.
Barnwell’s case: Injuries. CMC is fragile, Trent Williams is 34, and a lot of important players will turn 30 or already have. He doesn’t mention it, but the schedule definitely contributes to the injury risk in terms of travel and less rest than their opponents.
My take: This team would be the Super Bowl favorite, if not for right guard and right tackle. The question is if they’ll address that at the trade deadline or more likely let it play out and then finally address it in the draft. I have them signing Kirk Cousins and drafting new starters on the right side of the line. If they do, Super Bowl favorites and the "Quest for Six" is real. Until they address the line, in the mix but no further.

4. Seattle

Biggest issue: Run defense. Two amazing drafts have brought a huge haul everywhere but against the run. Bobby Wagner returns but he doesn’t have much help upfront on the interior line or alongside him. The Seahawks will need to jump out to leads to take the run away, otherwise, trouble in the Emerald City.
Camp talk, concerns, and MVP: Camp MVP Jaxson Smith-Njigba is playing like a five-year pro and making circus catches. The Seattle coaches are so enamored they are planning to make him a big part of the offense and there’s talk of offensive rookie of the year. Smith-Njigba vs. Isaiah Oliver in the Niner games will be a key matchup. The downside for the Seahawks, both running backs are hurt.
Barnwell’s case: Seattle is 4th by default in a down year for the conference. Jamal Adams returns to lead a great secondary. How well will Geno Smith play? The Seahawks are young but talented, he implies a gap to the top three.
My take: Seattle is dangerous. Smith-Njigba looks like the steal of the draft. The Seahawks are the proverbial box of chocolates, they can be very good, but will they be consistent? They‘re a year away, plug the run defense holes and they’re legit.