Expect a Downgrade from the 49ers Defense
The 49ers have become notorious for having depth and an unstoppable run defense. Now we are faced with a new Niners roster, filled with a lack of depth and experience at a multitude of positions. Are these issues something that should stress the Niners faithful? Or should we expect the hard hitting gritty team we’ve seen in the past?
The Niners defense will begin to show its holes
The Niners proved last season that they know how to stop the run. Only two teams gave up less then 80 yards per game on run plays last season, those teams being the Niners and the Titans.
If they have shown promise at stopping the run and even signed Javon Hargrave who has proven himself as an impressive starting defensive tackle, what changes this season? The entire lack of depth on the Defensive Line.
The best Defensive End who is at training camp (since Nick Bosa seemingly can’t sign a new deal) is Clelin Ferrell, who was drafted by the Raiders on a reach of a pick in the first round of the 2019 NFL Draft. After playing three lackluster seasons for the Silver and Black, he had 10 sacks and was not given a fifth year option. This led him to sign his current one year deal with the Niners. Ferrell was not signed to this team to be the starter, but will clearly be one and is a massive downgrade to Samson Ebukam who started all 15 games last season. He had 5 sacks and 7 Tackles for loss, Ferrell will be lucky if he can replicate those numbers.
The Niners have two great defensive tackles in Arik Armstead and Javon Hargrave who have proven themselves as quality first team players, but both are either 30 or about to be. In this physical league injuries happen often and easily, if one of those two go down there isn’t a replacement.
Javon Kinlaw, whom the Niners drafted in the first round of the 2020 draft, hasn’t shown the promise that was expected of him. In his first season he had 1.5 sacks in his 12 games started, since then he’s had his ups and downs in training camp. He has fallen so far that he could be cut this season or even shipped away in a trade for minimal talent in return. Even in the scenario that Kinlaw does pan out, beyond him there’s nothing. T.Y. McGill is a 30-year old veteran who has never started a game in his career, Marlon Davidson and Kevin Givens are young, but have failed to show any true starter or second team potential.
Beyond those two starters, their defensive line is essentially practice squad players.
Is Steve Wilks the solution? Or will he become a problem?
Steve Wilks is one of the best defensive coordinators out there, but has never run a defense like the Niners. Last year they were ranked 20th in blitz percentage per drop back, which led them to be the best defense in the NFL. Wilks consistently is in the top 4 in blitz percentage per drop back. Although he has claimed he doesn’t want to change the Niners system too much, he is bound to go back to his old ways. A blitzing Niners would add a lot of pressure to their corners and safeties in their pass coverage, which last year was ranked 20th. The only hole in the Niners defense is going to be exposed going into the season.
I truly think the 49ers should have heavy concerns on the defensive side going into 2023, and need to be cautious in their approach. If injuries occur they will be in big trouble without that depth they’ve had over the years. and if changes happen too fast they’ll drown.
