Four 49ers Questions: Brock Purdy and Running It Back

How the Purdy extension may play out, and what it could say about the Niners’ decision-making.

Dec 12, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass against the Los Angeles Rams in the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images / Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

The 49ers could choose bold action and a new direction. They won’t, but then you already knew that. Let’s take out the crystal ball and see what might be up.

1. Looking through the ball’s mist and rain I can make out Brock Purdy, struggling. What will the Niners do with his extension?

I think the Yorks will drive this, they see Purdy as the face of the franchise and direct Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch to get a deal done quickly, as they did with Christian McCaffrey. Since Purdy is the chosen one, no free agent alternatives or draft picks are considered, no extra season for evaluation. They want Purdy and they sign him this off-season.

How much? Trevor Lawrence is the potential baseline deal. Five years $275 million, $200 million guaranteed, $143 million upfront. Purdy’s agent Kyle Strongin will be motivated to get more money than Lawrence as the cap escalates. If that’s true, say Purdy at five years $280-295 million, $210 million guaranteed, and the Yorks try to keep the upfront money under $150 million.

Should the Niners do that?

No, but if the Yorks are driving the decision, it’s about business not football, cash register not lemonade stand. Make all the football reasons to not do this, if the Yorks drive the bus none of that matters - and Jed's behind the wheel.

2.      Here’s my core question on Purdy, if he walks what do you lose? What are the skills he provides that others cannot?

Quick read and release QB, Dillon Gabriel of Oregon does that well, but he’s a hobbit like Brock, probably 5-11 if that. You get a younger, cheaper Brock clone on a rookie deal. You say that’s a lateral move, agreed, just saying the same core skills for $50 million per less.

The free agent options, they were interested in Daniel Jones deadline, his accuracy numbers are surprising, good athlete, but he lacks a feel for the game and would be a project. After Lance, the Niners pass. Jameis too many picks. Darnold, I think the Vikings keep him. 13 wins and counting.

So it’s Brock and an affordable backup, in the past Shanahan has liked Zach Wilson and Mac Jones, could see one of them. And yes I hear you, shoot me now. This draft no, there isn’t an upgrade to Purdy, lot of bad footwork, short people, and one read quarterbacks. Hard pass. I’d be more interested in what Tanner Mordecai can do with an off-season of work than this draft class.

Extending Purdy is a dead-end though, they go ringless. But they’re going ringless as long as Shanahan is the defacto GM anyway. Does it matter if Purdy and/or Shanahan are the cause? They’d need to both be gone and this ownership group is petrified of the unknown and starting over.

Now why is that? Because there’s no one in the organization who can make great football decisions consistently. This is one of a million reasons why they need to hire an outside GM. They won’t, and yeah, you already knew that too.

3.      So they’re going to live with Purdy losing in the rain and not making comebacks?

Business over football.

The rain thing. As I’ve mentioned before, after leaving Iowa State Purdy worked to get more velocity by tweaking his lower body mechanics, such as more hip torque. That tweak took Purdy from Mr. Irrelevant to Super Bowl QB, he bridged the NFL velocity gap.

How that connects to the rain. Yes, Purdy needs gloves to prevent the fumbling and get more control out of how the ball leaves his hand. My theory on the rain is it’s not just the hands, it’s the feet. If he can’t get solid footing on every throw due to weather and field conditions then he doesn’t get the velocity boost from his lower body mechanics. Purdy reverts back to his Iowa State velocity while making NFL decisions. The ball floats, picked.

One of my favorite Steve Young quotes that I cite often, he said he could tell what kind of game he had just by watching film of his footwork.

Purdy says he needs to adjust his delivery in the rain so the ball comes out better. I wonder if his feet are part of that equation as well.

4.      If the Niners are going to run it back other than letting go of Special Teams Coordinator Brian Schneider and kicker Jake Moody, how is that going to make them a contender next year?

It’s not. They are counting on an easier schedule, health, and some new help in free agency and the draft. Imagine you have a mediocre restaurant due to the chef and the ingredients. Then you buy new kitchen knives and get better weather and expect business to pick up. You haven’t changed what matters. The essence of how you compete hasn’t changed.

Status quo decisions lead to the inertia wave. Businesses ride a wave of inertia that makes decisions for them. In this case, keeping Shanahan, extending Purdy, running it back. You make decisions on appearances, on what’s expected. You just want the cash register to keep ringing, increase ticket prices, and ride the wave.

The Niners lock themselves into Shanahan where he’s weakest, on personnel evaluation. He can’t evaluate quarterbacks, locks them into Purdy. Shanahan doesn’t connect the draft with blueprints. Two receivers taken, and neither play much. Disconnects and dysfunction. Unchecked.

Lacking a great personnel mind and evaluator, a Super Bowl team falls off a cliff this year. Then the greater mistake, running it back with the same decision-makers the following year. Better record but no title in 2025. That’s where the inertia wave comes to shore with Purdy and Shanahan. The goal is money, the destination is money, and the result is money. Not rings.

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