Four 49ers Questions: Lethal Weapon Edition

The clock is ticking, which jersey will Brandon Aiyuk wear this year?

Sep 10, 2023; Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA; San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) catches a pass for a touchdown with Pittsburgh Steelers cornerback Patrick Peterson (20) defending during the first half at Acrisure Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports / Gregory Fisher-USA TODAY Sports

Cue Danny Glover, a 49ers Faithful, saying he’s too old for this, representing the aging Niner core. In this case though, I’m asking different versions of lethal weapon: are elite wide receivers cap killers now, can a team win without a lethal weapon receiver, will the lethal salaries force the Niners to dig in on being a run-first team?

1. Justin Jefferson gets a deal averaging $35 million per. Brandon Aiyuk wants more than Amon-Ra St. Brown’s $30 million per, have the Niners painted themselves into a corner by waiting to get a deal done?

Yes. The Niners’ strategy of delaying a market offer until July to force a late signing is too costly now in money and performance. The stars signed late have had down seasons. The transparent wait-them-out strategy has run its course, doing more harm than good. They have to change tactics.

2.      What will it take to extend Aiyuk?

Since he’s focused on the St. Brown deal, that can serve as the baseline. St. Brown received more than $24 million guaranteed, spiking to $36 million in the final year working out to four years at $120 million after incentives. Jefferson’s deal comes in at $130 million. Aiyuk can split the difference at $125 million with a higher signing bonus and more guaranteed money than St. Brown.

Aiyuk reportedly wants $27.5 million per guaranteed while the Niners are offering $22 million, but then it is early June.

If the 49ers say we can’t afford more than $27 million given the number of targets Aiyuk receives then they need to trade him. If they can afford it but for only one receiver, then they need to deal Deebo Samuel.

Rumors say the Niners are still talking trades with Pittsburgh, and that the Steelers thought a deal was done at the draft, but John Lynch backed away last minute. Aiyuk’s current contract makes him easier to deal.

3.      What will it take for the Steelers to acquire Aiyuk or Samuel?

Lynch has said he wants a 1st round pick or no deal. Pittsburgh has not been willing to give it. A compromise on Aiyuk with the Steelers offering a 2nd round pick and a veteran at a position of need, tight end or linebacker, may get a deal done. The better the player, the lesser the pick though and no name players would be offered.

Dealing Aiyuk just for picks would damage the Niners chances of returning to the Super Bowl, they would need a contributor back.

A deal for Samuel would be far less given his production and salary, a late 3rd or 4th round pick and a vet.

Given the choice I would trade Deebo, but since Aiyuk is the easier one to deal, and brings back more value, I think he would be more likely to go. The problem with that is Aiyuk’s skillset is more difficult to replace. The Niners could weather the storm of losing Deebo, I doubt they could do the same if they trade Aiyuk.

4.      What are the long-term ramifications of the Aiyuk extension talks?

Top-ten receivers are now going for $30 million per. The Niners may be wary of paying that after Samuel’s performance post-extension. While I think Aiyuk would be more productive and reliable it’s hard to make the salaries fit long-term, particularly after extending Brock Purdy.

The Niners are transitioning to a traditional pay structure, moving from cheap QB pay everyone else to expensive QB cut back where you can. Arik Armstead was the first domino to fall in that transition, Aiyuk or Samuel could be next, followed by Charvarius Ward, Talanoa Hufanga, Kyle Juszczyk, and Aaron Banks next year.

The draft is producing a high volume of plug and play receivers, I think the WR pay scale taking off will force clubs to draft at least one receiver per year. The Niners may take a page from Andy Reid and Brett Veach in Kansas City and keep drafting receivers to allocate cap investment elsewhere. That likely becomes a leaguewide trend and receivers will become more valuable and in higher demand in the draft.

Some argue that with Purdy the 49ers should move to more of a pass-first offense. That’s unlikely on two fronts. That likely forces the team into paying an expensive extension to at least one veteran receiver. It also suggests an investment in elite pass protecting offensive linemen in free agency or the draft. Kyle Shanahan refuses and he sticks to run-first.

What I would do: Pay Aiyuk what he wants and deal Samuel now or at the draft. Pay for what you need and what's rare, Aiyuk has chemistry with Purdy and a skillset they cannot replace. What I think will happen: If Aiyuk isn’t signed by the opening of camp, Pittsburgh pushes for a deal and he’s traded.