Four 49ers Questions: One Step From the Goal Line

Reports indicate a deal is close. They’re running out of time, the opener is in a little over three weeks.

Jul 27, 2022; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan (left) and general manager John Lynch watches the players during Training Camp at the SAP Performance Facility near Levi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports / Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

The interminable Brandon Aiyuk contract talks are a step away according to Mike Garafolo of NFL Network. He reports that Aiyuk wants a change in the fourth and final year of the proposed deal before signing an extension.

1. Why hasn’t this ended yet?

Garafolo doesn’t have the specifics on what Aiyuk is demanding. A guarantee in the fourth and final year of the deal doesn’t happen across the league. That would be unprecedented and rejected.

A spike in money in the final unguaranteed year is a possibility. Aiyuk has used Amon-Ra St. Brown’s deal as a blueprint, it included a spike in the final year to drive up the reported average annual value of the contract.

This comes down to what Aiyuk is asking for in the final year. Guaranteeing it is a poison pill. Anything less than that is negotiable, but clearly Aiyuk’s request is not something the Niners are comfortable doing or Aiyuk would have signed by now.

John Lynch says, “We feel the urgency to have him.” However, there are limits to the urgency.

The Niners do have an urgent need to sign Aiyuk. The way to beat the Jets in the opener is through the running game and Aiyuk is a key part of that. He also needs time to ramp up to get in football shape in time for the season.

So the game of chicken continues. The Niners have caved on nearly every contract demand, but is this last one a bridge too far? We’ll see if a compromise is possible that finally ends this.

Fans and media have chosen one side or the other throughout these talks, the pendulum has swung in the Niners favor with this latest Aiyuk request. At this point the fan and media consensus opinion is overwhelming: For the love of God finish this. Aiyuk Watch is now in season seven.

2. Given the Niners are caving on nearly everything Aiyuk wants, why stretch out contract talks like this every year, what do they gain by it?

Nothing. The annual strategy of start with a lowball offer bordering on the ridiculous and then cave last minute does not appear to carry any value for the Niners. All it does is upset the player and annoy the fanbase. So why keep doing it? No clue.

The organizational culture has the bad habit of trying to wish things into being. From the offensive line cap strategy, to wishing players to fall to them in the draft, to injury time frames.

That tendency can then lead to thinking that an initial lowball offer creates room to get a player signed to a team-friendly deal. That hasn’t happened for years, yet the Niners continue the strategy.

Like the Aiyuk talks, this negotiation tactic has run its course and needs to end.

3. What about an extension for Trent Williams?

I cut it into thirds. Williams doesn’t want to go to camp. He wants his money guaranteed going forward. His contract is no longer in the top five of NFL tackles.

Williams will need to go to camp to get some contact work before the opener. Nick Bosa proved last year that even though you can be in great shape away from Santa Clara, there is still a need to get into football shape. Trent needs to show up soon.

My guess is the Niners are fine with taking care of Williams, but they want Aiyuk signed first to know all the details on what they can spend when. Money upfront isn’t unlimited, the team also has to budget the payroll out for the years Williams will be guaranteed. It helps to have all the data upfront and then work out an extension.

Kyle Shanahan says the team can succeed with Jaylon Moore starting at left tackle in the opener. Williams knows that isn’t true, more to the point, so does Shanahan. The history is clear, when Williams sits the Niners lose.

Shanahan needs to keep Williams, who is central to huis cap strategy of paying Trent and going cheap at the other four spots. Without Williams the offensive line becomes a house of cards.

Some speculate Williams could threaten to retire, but he’s still one of the top tackles in the game and loves his money. I don’t see Williams retiring, I do see the Niners taking care of him, but Aiyuk’s extension taking forever and a day is slowing things down.

After extending Christian McCaffrey, Williams knows he’s up next and will expect similar treatment. Shanahan also knows he has to ante up. I think a Williams deal can get done before the opener.

4. What to watch for in the New Orleans game?

I want to see improvement on defense against the run and in special teams coverage. On offense, the Niners will have an opportunity to throw at Kool-Aid McKinstry and that’s a good test for the young receivers.

Individually, better and faster decision making from Dee Winters and how Dominic Puni executes in run blocking at right guard.