Four Questions: 49ers Signings and Speculation
In the first week of free agency, the 49ers have focused on affordable middle-class contracts to shore up the defensive line and re-up the offensive line. Meanwhile, rumors indicate Brandon Aiyuk and Jacksonville reportedly have mutual interest in a deal.
1. What do you make of the moves so far in free agency?
Leonard Floyd is the Niners' best Bosa bookend since Dee Ford. Floyd can consistently draw attention from the offensive line to set up his teammates, something the Niners haven’t had since Ford in 2019. Floyd is also durable and reliable. He hasn’t missed a game in six years, and he’s recorded at least nine sacks in each of the last four seasons.
Floyd also has experience under Niners Assistant Head Coach Brandon Staley in a five-man front. This would optimize both Floyd and defensive tackle Javon Hargrave, who thrived in a five-man front in Philadelphia.
Hargrave’s contract was just restructured to create more cap room. The potential of a five-man front implemented by Staley and defensive coordinator Nick Sorensen may have bolstered the Niners' confidence in Hargrave’s future.
The three additional DL acquisitions (Yetur Gross-Matos, Maliek Collins, and Jordan Elliott) are all bets on defensive line coach Kris Kocurek to elevate their games. Gross-Matos had 17 sacks and 35 tackles for loss in his final two seasons at Penn State, he has not come close to that as a pro.
Most of the remaining vets are special teams signings. Two exceptions are Isaac Yiadom at outside corner. I see him as a replacement for Ambry Thomas and he competes with Darrell Luter Jr. as the starter.
At linebacker, De'Vondre Campbell has broken down physically and the question is if that’s a degenerative condition or if his fall in play was due to how he was used in Green Bay.
2. How real is the Aiyuk to Jacksonville rumor?
Not very in my view. Aiyuk and his inner circle are trying to create leverage but the 49ers hold all the cards. The team can let Aiyuk play out his current deal next year and then franchise tag him. The tag this year is $21.8 million, it’ll go up next year but will likely still be below what Aiyuk expects.
My read is Jags GM Trent Baalke is working with Aiyuk’s team to create leverage, a narrative that Aiyuk wants to go to Jacksonville so trade him. But since he wants out, we won’t give you the 17th pick in this draft. That’s the hope. It will fail in my view. The Niners would only make a trade with Jacksonville if contract negotiations go south and Baalke includes the 17th pick. Stalemate.
So this rumor comes down to Baalke, offer the 17th pick for Aiyuk and it’s real. Think you can leverage the Niners into accepting less and it’s fiction.
3. If the Niners move up or down from 31 what will it cost? What’s realistic?
According to the historic draft trade chart:
1st Round Trade Up:
Pick 20, Pittsburgh, for SF picks at 31 and 63, with the Steelers adding a future 5th.
Pick 26, Tampa Bay, for SF picks at 31 and 94, with the Bucs adding a future 5th.
Pick 28, Buffalo, for SF picks at 31, 133, and 176.
Of these, I can see the move up to 26 if one of the six starting tackles or LSU wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. is available. The Niners have been willing to move up in the past to get who they’ve targeted, they did it last year with Ji’Ayir Brown.
1st Round Trade Down:
If Duke center Graham Barton is gone and the Niners aren’t sold on the late first receivers or defensive backs, they could look to deal down. Teams wanting a quarterback in the late first to get an extra year on the rookie contract for a first-round pick would be the most likely partners. They would be looking to trade up for Oregon’s Bo Nix or Washington’s Michael Penix.
The potential teams:
New England (SF 31 for NE 34, 137)
New York Giants (SF 31, 124, 176 for NYG 47, 70)
The Giants' picks fall in the two sweet spots of the draft, mid-2nd and early 3rd.
Denver and New Orleans could also be looking at a move for a quarterback, but they lack the picks to make a deal. The Broncos have no 2nd, the Saints have no 3rd or 4th. A deal with Denver for Patrick Surtain II would require more than the 31st pick.
4. Zach Wilson? Really?
Kyle Shanahan can’t help himself. He just loves Jets backup quarterbacks apparently. So Tyrod Taylor next year?
The latest is the Niners will give a 7th this year or a 6th next year for Wilson. No deal yet as this goes live.
