Four Questions: 49ers Super Bowl Edition, Part 1

This week will dwell on strategy and that’s important, but playoff games are won on matchups and mistakes. Who wins their matchup and makes plays, and who makes mistakes?

For the eighth time in franchise history, the San Francisco 49ers are in the Super Bowl. I’ve been following this team for 54 years, time has taught me this much, drink in the moment and enjoy it. Never take a Super Bowl appearance for granted.

That’s not to say getting there is the goal. This game is unforgiving as these Niners know well.

Bill Walsh wrote about the power of belief in adversity. “Do tell yourself, ‘I am going to stand and fight again,’ with the knowledge that often when things are at their worst you’re closer than you can imagine to success.”

This year’s Niner playoff run has made Walsh a prophet.

This week will dwell on strategy and that’s important, but playoff games are won on matchups and mistakes. Who wins their matchup and makes plays, and who makes mistakes?

The NFC Championship brought this point home. I was asked to break down the 2nd half of the Detroit game defensively and point out in granular detail how the 49ers' defense won. Let’s get to it.

How did the 49ers defense beat Detroit in the 2nd half? What can they carry over to the Super Bowl?

The first half mistakes were about space. Zones that were too loose, gaps in the run defense, linebackers playing laterally not vertically, wrong pursuit angles, and overruns. Those mistakes opened more of the field for the touchdown run by Jameson Williams.

A successful defense is connected. It directs a runner into teammates, swarms to the ball, fills the rushing lanes, and plays tight coverage to enable the pass rush. Simple stuff, but stuff that wasn’t happening in the first half.

Scheme played a central role in the game-ending play. The Niners showed man to mask zone, Arik Armstead won his matchup and chased as Goff’s pass was off target and incomplete.

Detroit made five lethal mistakes in the 2nd half, outside of going for it twice on 4th and short:

1. In the early 3rd quarter, Sam LaPorta was open at the 12 for a potential touchdown and Jared Goff overthrew him. Bullet dodged. Then seven points turned to zero.

2. Ben Johnson got too cute when the Lions were running at will with David Montgomery. He gave the ball to Amon-Ra St. Brown on a critical 3rd and four for a gain of only two. That set up 4th and two where Nick Bosa won his matchup and sped up Goff into an unbalanced throw that fell short.

3. Jahmyr Gibbs ran to the wrong side of Goff on a run that confused both of them. Gibbs ran with uncertainty and spun in traffic exposing the ball, Tayshaun Gipson knocked the ball free and Armstead recovered.

4. On a 3rd and ten with the game hanging in the balance, Goff hit a wide-open Josh Reynolds in the stomach for a first down and Reynolds dropped it.

5. On 4th and 3, the Niners show man coverage and Goff takes the bait, expecting man defense he faces zone. Armstead chases and Goff throws the ball to no one incomplete.

Young teams in Detroit and Green Bay handed the 49ers mistakes. A championship team will capitalize on those mistakes. In 2022 the Niners did not against the Rams and missed the Super Bowl. The 2024 edition did and that’s why they are in Las Vegas.

What the 49ers need to carry into the Super Bowl is winning matchups and defensive connectivity. For example, on a first down run Javon Hargrave bulldozed his man, Chase Young next to him moved into the vacated space and tackled Gibbs for no gain. St. Brown catches a pass on 3rd and 10, then three Niners swarm to him to set up the fateful 4th and three that ends the game.

Two defensive keys in the Super Bowl are limiting Isaiah Pacheco's rushing yards after contact and speeding up Patrick Mahomes so he throws the ball away. Stops to get off the field are the goal, not sacks. Mahomes has only been sacked five times in his last six playoff games. 

Kyle Shanahan says the key to the game is defensive line stamina. Is he right?

Yes, it’s one of the keys. Kansas City will look to wear down the Niners defensive line with two and three tight end sets. Andy Reid knows the Niners are top-heavy on the defensive line and lack depth. 

A steady diet of Pacheco and power formations will look to tire out the Niner defensive line in the run game together with the line chasing Patrick Mahomes on passing downs.

Shanahan no doubt is also referring to what cost them the 2020 Super Bowl against the Chiefs when the Niner defense was gassed late and gave up 21 unanswered in the 4th quarter.

However, the reason they were gassed is the 49ers offense couldn’t stay on the field. Only three first downs in the final 12 minutes of the game.

Which leads to this. The guy who can deliver the most rest help to the Niner defense is Shanahan.

I'm starting with the man in the mirror.
I'm asking him to change his ways.

2020 Super Bowl. Four runs and 13 pass plays were called in the final 12 minutes.

2023 vs. Baltimore. Down 16-12 at halftime after three interceptions. In the first three possessions of the second half, two runs, and seven pass plays.

Shanahan can’t afford to just be the offensive coordinator calling what play he thinks will work best. He also needs to be his head coach, managing the energy of the game to protect his defense and give them rest.

The game plan needs to focus on the run and grind out possessions on short quick throws. Get the ball to playmakers in space and eat the clock on time-consuming drives. If the key to the game is defensive line stamina, then help your defense.

Make that change.