Game Preview: 49ers at Philadelphia Eagles

The 49ers are 3-point favorites, but part of that is Vegas calibrating the line to deal with a heavy volume of Niners fans betting on the game.

The game of the year. So many questions coming in, and revealing answers will come out of it. The 49ers are 3-point favorites, but part of that is Vegas calibrating the line to deal with a heavy volume of Niners fans betting on the game.

Injuries: Lane Johnson expects to play. Dallas Goedert practiced on Friday and now expects to play, he'll help the run game and is targeted on 3rd down and in the red zone. Fletcher Cox is hurt but has a solid backup in Marvin Williams. Run-stopping linebacker Zach Cunningham is who the Eagles need to worry about, he’s unlikely to play and has a weak backup. That may lead Philadelphia to play more five-man fronts or a three-safety look.

For the Niners, Arik Armstead had foot problems in practice but will play. He’s critical to the 49ers' run defense that will be a top-three factor in who wins this game.

Weather: Mid-50s at kickoff with a 30 to 45% chance of intermittent rain during the game and 10 mph winds.

WHEN PHILADELPHIA HAS THE BALL

The Eagles run success tracks with the health of their line. With Cam Jurgens back healthy they ran for 185 yards against Buffalo, led by D’Andre Swift and Jalen Hurts. Buffalo is 28th against the run and the Niners are 10th.

Philadelphia is coming off 5.8 yards per carry last week, now they get Johnson back. The Niners have lost both games when they gave up more than 4.7 yards per carry. They average four.

One of the keys to the game is who wins on first and second down. If Philadelphia wins on the ground the Niners pass rush is taken out of the game.

The Eagles can run on 3rd and 7 and use the 95% successful Brotherly Shove on 4th. As Steve Wilks said the success of that play changes the game to first and 8, and three downs become four. Wilks needs to be aggressive on early downs to take the Shove out of the equation.

Kansas City had five sacks against the Eagles, with Chris Jones beating Jason Kelce and corner Trent McDuffie blitzing for two sacks and a batted pass. If Wilks sends Ji’Ayir Brown, no one has seen it, and Brown can finish.

Chase Young succeeded against the Eagles in Week 4 with a sack and two quarterback hits, but he was also erased on the edge by Jordan Mailata on a touchdown run by Swift.

Young’s sack came by rushing past Mailata and Hurts and then reaching back for the sack. The Niners will need to maintain lanes in rushing Hurts or he can take off running. The line has been disciplined within their rush lanes in recent weeks.

Buffalo had success early in flushing Hurts wide. He loses contact with his receivers. scrambles to open space, and then picks them back up. That leads to him only looking to the near sideline and Hurts threw five passes away. 

If Goedert returns that gives Hurts a favorite target in the red zone and on 3rd to keep the chains moving.

To get to Hurts, the 49ers cornerbacks must limit A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith. Charvarius Ward, Ambry Thomas, and Deommodore Lenoir are playing at their peak in high confidence.

A play to watch is Philly using a fake screen and then going intermediate to deep sideline.

WHEN THE NINERS HAVE THE BALL

Christian McCaffrey should have another game that makes his case for MVP. Philadelphia struggles to set the left edge in the run game and their linebackers and safeties are too slow in pass coverage.

The Niners should have success running wide and passing in the short to intermediate area of the field. If the Eagles rushers get home, screens will be needed. Philadelphia is one of the league’s best at swarming to the ball and limiting yards after the catch.

George Kittle should have his way with Eagles safety Kevin Byard in this game. Byard plays off his man to limit yardage, giving up a lot of catches but not a lot of yards. Kittle will look to get downfield in the gaps of the defense.

Brock Purdy should work the middle of the field consistently if he has the time to get receivers the ball. Philadelphia’s advantage upfront poses a problem with edge Haason Reddick and tackle Jalen Carter having mismatches across from them. Reddick has 8.5 sacks this season.

Eagles defensive coordinator Sean Desai hinted at his game plan. “We will have to have a good plan corralling him (Purdy) and getting tight to some of these routes so we can contest some of the throws that they throw.” Corralling sounds like encircling Purdy to not give him a scramble lane. Philadelphia playing tight man is expected they play the most man coverage in the league.

Brandon Aiyuk likely faces off against one of the league’s best in Darius Slay with Deebo Samuel matched against James Bradberry. Aiyuk winning that matchup can win the game.

SPECIAL TEAMS

The Niners can count on Mitch Wishnowsky pinning the Eagles deep, but outside of that is a problem. The Eagles' Jake Elliott kicked a 59-yarder in driving rain with the game on the line. Jake Moody, we’ll see. Ray-Ray McCloud has an injured rib and hasn’t practiced, and the Niners' best coverage man George Odum is out for the year. The Niners have given up long returns on kicks in recent weeks.

Special teams favor Philadelphia and could be a factor, the Niner rookies will have to step up.

PREDICTION (My record 8-3)

The Niners are playing well, helped by playing teams that can’t run or stop the run, which feeds into Kyle Shanahan’s blueprint.

This game is ultimately about blueprints, what the organizations have and have not invested in - how they choose to win.

Games are also about matchups and Philadelphia presents a problem because the 49ers don’t get their accustomed win on the defensive line, going against the league’s best OL. On the flip side, the Eagles' back seven faces a greater mismatch than normal against the Niners' arsenal of weapons.

Strength on strength only happens once, the Philly O Line against The Niner D Line. I expect the Eagles' offensive line to win the running game now that all their starters are back. However, unlike last year, the Niners should be able to get to Hurts on enough downs to flush him into mistakes.

Strength on weakness can get ugly. Philadelphia’s Josh Sweat is inconsistent in sealing the left edge against the run and the Niners live there with Trent Williams paving the way for Christian McCaffrey.

If Zach Cunningham is out the Eagles will have more trouble stopping the run and their linebackers and safeties will struggle against name the Niner in coverage. McCaffrey and George Kittle should have big days.

The question is how much time will Brock Purdy have? Haason Reddick against Colton McKivitz is the game’s biggest mismatch, McKivitz is vulnerable to speed. Reddick will play on fire after the Niners called last year's season-ending play on Purdy a fluke. Jalen Carter should also have success inside against Jake Brendel and Spencer Burford.

In a game this tight and competitive it’s the accumulation of little things that can get the win.

When the 49ers commit a penalty on offense on 1st down, they fail to get the first down 73% of the time. It’s a drive killer. The overmatched Niners offensive line may get flagged for multiple holding calls. For an Eagles defense that could struggle to get stops, 49ers penalties may be their ticket off the field.

I see the Niners jumping out to an early lead on their opening script drive. They lead the NFL with nine scores on their first drive, eight are touchdowns. Philadelphia has only scored two first half touchdowns in their last two games. Offensive coordinator Brian Johnson may be wise to start with a run-heavy script to get his offense in rhythm.

In the second half, part of why Shanahan defers on the kickoff is the 49ers' success after halftime, scoring a touchdown on the first or second drive of the second half in eight of their eleven games.

This game though will likely be determined by what happens after that second half score. Philadelphia has shown an ability to come back and is battle-tested in the final minutes. The Niners blueprint is to build a lead, let the pass rush close the game, and coast to the finish line.

In recent comments, 49ers legend Steve Young noted that Purdy’s anticipatory passing game gets harder when he must come back, when the defense knows he has to pass. Purdy is most effective out of play-action when the defense has to respect the run and the pass. 

The contrast between Purdy and Hurts is revealed in their splits in the last two minutes of halves.

Purdy’s completion percentage drops from 70% to 55%, his rating from 111 to 71. Part of that is a lower sample size, Young’s competitive context, and Shanahan’s blueprint not investing in pass protection.  For Hurts, in the last two minutes of a half, he completes 70% of his passes at a rating of 84.4.

Projecting a game that’s tied or close in the last possession, the Eagles are better equipped to score with the experience of Hurts and Elliott to close it out, while the Niners turn to 2nd year Purdy and rookie Moody.

The Niners have the league’s 4th oldest team, but the youngest quarterback-kicker tandem asked to deliver late with the game on the line and probably raining.

The 49ers need to build a lead and not leave Philadelphia enough time to come back.  I think the Eagles will lean on the run to keep the game within reach and then put it away in the final minutes.

Eagles 27 49ers 24