Game Preview: 49ers at Pittsburgh

An 80% chance of rain puts the game at the line of scrimmage with trench play likely deciding who wins.

The 49ers are 2.5-point favorites traveling to Pittsburgh, with the last-minute signing of Nick Bosa providing a welcome shot of confidence. George Kittle and Charvarius Ward are listed as questionable but the coaching staff said Thursday both were expected to play.

An 80% chance of rain puts the game at the line of scrimmage with trench play likely deciding who wins.

What Pittsburgh wants: A war of attrition. On offense, bell-cow back Najee Harris wears down the Niners' defense, with play-action setting up quarterback Kenny Pickett for shots downfield to receivers George Pickens and Diontae Johnson. On defense, the Steelers hope their pass rush forces Brock Purdy into inefficiency and turnovers.

What the Niners want: A clean efficient game. On offense, establish the run to set up the short passing game with Deebo Samuel and Christian McCaffrey in space, then use them as decoys for go routes to Brandon Aiyuk and George Kittle. Avoiding turnovers is essential. On defense, contain the run and give safety help to prevent the deep ball.

Opening Act
Mike Tomlin is 10-5-1 on opening day. This is the Steelers' first home opener in nine years. Kyle Shanahan is 2-4 with the Niners.

The narrative is that the Niners aren’t prepared to start the year as it takes Shanahan time to find the identity and rhythm of the offense. This year that’s not true though. The Niners know who they are on offense and how they succeed.

This year’s twist is to take advantage of defenses playing man and focusing on McCaffrey to then set up the rest of the Niner weapons. Aiyuk hinted at this saying the receivers are working on new go routes.

The common theme in the early losses of the last two years is turnovers. In their defeats last year, the Niners lost turnovers 11-2. Facing a physical defense with a talented and deep pass rush, and a smart ballhawk in Minkah Fitzpatrick on a slick field, avoiding turnovers is a must but exceptionally difficult to pull off.

What’s new in Pittsburgh
Quarterback Kenny Pickett has made the sophomore leap. He closed last year 5-2 and led the NFL with a perfect rating in the preseason, scoring five touchdowns on five drives. Running back Najee Harris is fully healthy, as is All-Pro edge T.J. Watt, who missed seven games last year.

Pittsburgh signed Eagles guard Isaac Seumalo to add power to the rushing attack. The draft brought in run stuffer Keeanu Benton, toolsy edge Nick Herbig had multiple sacks in the preseason, and tight end bulldozer Darnell Washington is another blocking weapon for the running game.

The key stat
Pittsburgh’s pressure rate against the Niner offensive line. With a clean pocket last year Brock Purdy completed over 73% of his passes, under pressure that dropped below 48%. Against Dallas in the playoffs, Purdy with a clean pocket was 16-17, pressured he went 3-12.

The Niners offensive line has its hands full against Pittsburgh. Watt had 21 sacks in 2021 and Alex Highsmith had 14.5 last year. Plus the Steelers have Cam Heyward, free agent DeMarvin Leal, and rookie Nick Herbig for the depth to maintain pressure and come in waves. Analyst Warren Sharp notes that when Watt played last year the Steelers had a pressure rate of 35%, 5th in the league.

The Niners will need to counter that by Purdy getting the ball out quickly, with success on the early downs to avoid 3rd and long. This will be a test for right tackle Colton McKivitz facing Watt. Shanahan will need to give him double support and chip help if Watt wins the matchup consistently.

The Niners on defense
With injuries and Bosa’s late signing the starters have yet to play together, creating many unknowns. Defensive coordinator Steve Wilks will have to adjust on the fly as he learns what works and what doesn't.

Wilks is helped by having played Pittsburgh last year in Carolina, losing 24-16 on a high-volume game for Harris and 10 catches for Johnson. Wilks knows the Pittsburgh personnel and how they succeed.

Bosa says he’s in peak condition. Javon Hargrave looks like he will need to play his way into game shape, which usually translates into a game of great pass-rush flashes mixed with getting beat against the run.

The question marks are the new starters, Oren Burks at linebacker and Isaiah Oliver at nickel. Oliver helps in run support but was vulnerable in the passing game preseason. Allen Robinson is the Pittsburgh slot receiver.

Special teams
The Niners special teams are a box of chocolates entering this game, not sure what they’re going to get from kicker Jake Moody. The rain won’t help, but a key for the kicking game, it'll be muggy with light winds.

A new engine
In years past, the Niner defense kept the team in games early in the season, now that flips to the offense as the engine. The short passing game has the league’s best set of weapons, and as the Pittsburgh defense focuses on McCaffrey, Shanahan can get CMC the ball and design around him to target Aiyuk at a new level, Deebo in 2021 shape, and hopefully get production in key moments from Kittle, Jauan Jennings, and Ronnie Bell.

Prediction
This pick assumes both Kittle and Ward play. The defense will need to find its way over the course of the game and may get burned deep for a score. Harris will get his but in small chunks. It’s the offense that wins this, specifically the short passing game, provided the Niners take care of the ball. Hard to run on the Steelers, but Shanahan will scheme guys open in the passing game and Purdy will convert red zone opportunities into touchdowns.

San Francisco 24 Pittsburgh 20