Game Preview: New York Giants at 49ers

The Niners are favored by 10.5 and that’s conservative.
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The 2-0 49ers come home for a Thursday night game against the hobbling Giants, who are missing star running back Saquon Barkley and starters at left tackle, left guard, and linebacker. For the Niners, Brandon Aiyuk is out with a shoulder injury, and Chris Conley has been called up to replace him.

The Niners are favored by 10.5 and that’s conservative.

What the Giants want to do: Pick on the 49ers’ secondary intermediate to deep. Down 20-0 at halftime last week, Daniel Jones went 17-21 for 259 yards in the 2nd half for the comeback win. 

Chunk plays were key with a 58-yarder to Jaylin Hyatt and two passes over 25 yards. Jones also rushed for 59 yards on nine carries. Former 49er Matt Breida will fill in for Barkley and is a threat in space with his breakaway speed. On defense, the Giants like to blitz and need to pressure Brock Purdy.

What the Niners want to do: Pressure Jones into turnovers, limit his scrambling, and take away the big plays. On offense, same ol’. Feed Christian McCaffrey, and hopefully Elijah Mitchell and Jordan Mason this time, as Purdy distributes the ball in the short game. Establish a rhythm, build a comfortable lead, and then get the starters off the field to avoid injuries in a short week.

Giants trying to avoid a tailspin

New York was lucky to come out of Arizona with a win, and now the schedule does them no favors, they may lose their next five facing the Niners, Seattle, Miami, Buffalo, and Washington. Without Barkley, they’ll need to generate big plays and will have to gamble both ways. Deep balls, blitzes, high risk-reward plays.

On defense, New York is 4th in the league in blitz percentage but they have yet to generate a sack and their pressure rate is in the lower half of the league. The Giants front four is led by 2nd-Team All-Pro nose tackle Dexter Lawrence, but top-5 pick Kayvon Thibodeaux has yet to emerge. Linebacker/safety Isaiah Simmons has played well. The secondary is young outside, the Giants start rookies Tre Hawkins III and Deonte Banks at cornerback.

On offense, the Giants get possession receiver Wan’Dale Robinson back for this game.

The key stat

No injuries. Short weeks are notorious for injuries. Kyle Shanahan and the coaching staff are notorious for milking players and not using a rotation. The Niners need to avoid both pitfalls. Run up a cozy lead and then sit everybody as soon as you can.

49ers on offense

The Giants are 25th in the league against the run, giving up 4.6 yards per carry, so the Niners will pound the ball with Christian McCaffrey. New York going sackless with a low pressure rate is great news for Brock Purdy, who has completed 74% of his passes this year with a clean pocket.

With Aiyuk out, that will create more opportunities for George Kittle, who broke out in the last Niners Thursday night game with two touchdowns. There also might be more targets for Jauan Jennings and possibly rookie Ronnie Bell.

The Giants' pass rush and blitzing will be the bellwether, if they can’t pressure Purdy the game’s over.

49ers on defense

Entering the year, Steve Wilks said one of his top priorities was to prevent the big play. This explains the soft zones, keep everything in front of you. Against a Giants team that wants to go intermediate to deep, Wilks may open with soft zones again.

The Giants offensive line has given up 10 sacks in two games and the left side of the line is out injured. The Niners need to capitalize. This is a great opportunity for Nick Bosa to start gathering sacks.

Wilks has not coached a team playing wide-9 before, which doesn’t bode well for the Niners stopping Jones from scrambling. The solution from Robert Saleh and DeMeco Ryans was to coach the front four to maintain lane discipline, they didn’t, a wide-9 always attacks. Then Bosa goes past the quarterback and a 6-lane highway opens up. The Niners will hope that Drake Jackson’s speed can help to contain Jones when he leaves the pocket.

Fred Warner and Dre Greenlaw will have their hands full with Jones’ top target tight end Darren Waller and the backs, so Oren Burks and the nickel will need to provide help against Jones scrambling. A wide-9 may best be paired with a spy on the QB, but a defensive coordinator would rather drive blindfolded than use a spy.

Jones will probably get his on the ground, a scrambling quarterback is wide-9 kryptonite, it’s the price you pay for playing it.

Prediction (Record 2-0)

The Giants can’t stop the run or sack the quarterback, they did give up 20 to Arizona in a half. The Niners should have their way with them. New York probably stacks the box to stop McCaffrey and then Purdy picks them apart. Shanahan will need to have a blocking plan to neutralize Dexter Lawrence.

Thursday night games can have sloppy execution, the Niners must protect the ball. Turnovers are the only realistic way New York can stay in this game.

On defense, one twist Wilks can bring to solving Jones' scrambling is to send five on passing downs to fill the lanes. Jones will likely get a few of those back-breaking 3rd and long conversions on scrambles, but the Niners will eventually roll up the score.

Niners 31 Giants 13


Published
Tom Jensen
TOM JENSEN

Tom Jensen covered the San Francisco 49ers from 1985-87 for KUBA-AM in Yuba City, part of the team’s radio network. He won two awards from UPI for live news reporting. Tom attended 49ers home games and camp in Rocklin. He grew up a Niners fan starting in 1970, the final year at Kezar. Tom also covered the Kings when they first arrived in Sacramento, and served as an online columnist writing on the Los Angeles Lakers for bskball.com. He grew up in the East Bay, went to San Diego State undergrad, a classmate of Tony Gwynn, covering him in baseball and as the team’s point guard in basketball. Tom has an MBA from UC Irvine with additional grad coursework at UCLA. He's writing his first science fiction novel, has collaborated on a few screenplays, and runs his own global jazz/R&B website at vibrationsoftheworld.com. Tom lives in Seattle and hopes to move to Tracktown (Eugene, OR) in the spring.