How Does Brock Purdy's Future Change if he Regresses in 2024?

All arrows are pointing upward for Brock Purdy to improve in 2024, but what happens if that doesn't go as planned?

Feb 11, 2024; Paradise, Nevada, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass against the Kansas City Chiefs in the second half in Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports / Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

No one could've foresaw the season Brock Purdy had in 2023.

Not even the San Francisco 49ers would've predicted it was going to occur in that fashion where he finishes as an MVP finalist. The 49ers finally have their quarterback who is poised to take the next step in 2024 now that he has an offseason where he can work on his weaknesses.

All arrows are pointing upward for Brock Purdy to improve in 2024, but what happens if that doesn't go as planned? Purdy wouldn't be the first player who was expected to take a leap after coming off a sweet season and falling flat. Everything is on the table for him whether it is better or the same as in 2023, or even regress.

So, how does Purdy's future change if he regresses in 2024?

Well, he certainly won't be receiving a lucrative contract from the 49ers. His stock would've definitely taken a hit in how much the 49ers would be willing to offer him and he won't be able to use how he looked in 2023 either. This is a 'what have you done lately?" league and a regressed season would hurt him.

It really depends on how his regression looks. Does he simply take a couple of steps back? That is certainly manageable for the 49ers to continue to be a great offense. Or does he look far gone that the 49ers have to consider another option at quarterback?

No matter what kind of regression Purdy goes through, it would be the worst case scenario for the 49ers. It doesn't matter if they can save some money. Envisioning a 2024 season where Purdy plummets suddenly makes the thought of the 49ers cashing him out a blessing.

This is why so many teams end up overpaying for their quarterback because there are no alternatives. It's either pay this guy a little more than he is worth, or suffer in quarterback purgatory. Purdy's regression would hurt his next contract offer and start to stir doubt if he can ever return as a sweet player again.

It would also cause the 49ers to reassess what they have. Ultimately, I don't believe Purdy takes any relative step back from 2023. The worst he can look, for me, in 2024 is looking the same as he did last year because if you're not getting better you're getting worse. But I think Purdy looks at least a little improved in 2024.

The 49ers just have to acknowledge that there is a reality of him regressing and have to consider what that future would like for them and for Purdy.