How Good is Kyle Shanahan?

If signing Garoppolo and trading for Lance were the biggest decisions of Shanahan's tenure, Purdy was his luckiest.

How good is Kyle Shanahan?

The year was 2017, 49ers fans were fresh out of the Trent Baalke era, and Kyle Shanahan was clean shaven, calling offense in the A. In a league full of brilliant young offensive minds, Shanahan was the market's hottest commodity. His Falcons unit was historically great, averaging a league-best 33.8 points per game. Back at 49ers headquarters, PR embattled Jed York keyed in on Shanahan to be his next head man. Niner fans collectively waited, as the divisional playoff round approached. They would all be watching their next head coach call plays. 

In the divisional round, the Falcons made quick work of the Seattle Seahawks. Shanahan’s high powered, well oiled offensive machine put up 36 points on an aging legion of boom, and the game was hardly competitive. The NFC Championship game came around, and the Packers suffered a similar fate. This time Shanahan’s unit hung 44. 

Back on the West Coast, Niners fans were hyped, dreaming of a red and gold offensive juggernaut and that ever elusive sixth ring. Hope was in the air. The previous two head coaches had been that bad. Shanahan was that good. He was young, the cool factor was there, the offenses were dominant, and he was an NFL blue blood. He was a Shanahan. 

The 2017 Super Bowl set up to be a chess match between two of football's sharpest minds. Young, hungry, cerebral Shanahan, faced off with the NFL’s alpha wolf, Bill Belichick. Belichick was battle tested, a defensive mastermind and widely regarded best coach in league history. But as Super Bowl 51 got underway, Shanahan got the better of the Patriots head man. For an entire half of football, Shanahan looked every bit the genius the football world had come to know, thoroughly outclassing the best defensive mind football had to offer. 

And then the fourth quarter came, and Tom Brady happened. The Falcons had the ball, up 16 points, and with only 8 minutes left to play. Within field goal range, Shanahan called a drop back pass play on 3rd and 1, exposing his quarterback to a sack. They came away with zero points. Brady took the ball and scored. Again the Falcons advanced the ball deep into Patriot territory. Shanahan again called two consecutive pass plays, resulting in a sack and a holding penalty. They came away with zero points. Brady took the ball and scored. The Falcons lost the Super Bowl. 

Shanahan was an offensive genius, many would say a great offensive coach, and his greatness was on display for an entire season. But when the stakes were the highest, when the pressure was ratcheted up, he underwhelmed. Many would defend him, concluding a coach could only do so much. Players have to execute the plays. But ultimately Shanahan was responsible to protect his players from such crucial, game-altering mistakes. He was young, and would have the opportunity to learn from the collapse. Only time would tell if the late game meltdown was a stroke of bad luck, or a fatal, psychological flaw in a mostly great young coach. 

The San Francisco 49ers inked Shanahan to a 5-year deal in January 2017, making him their head football coach. He took over a bad team depleted of talent with no future at quarterback. During the next six seasons, several key decisions would determine Shanahan’s success or failure as a head coach. 

Shanahan’s first critical decision came immediately, in the first offseason, before he had coached a single down of 49ers football. The Niners held an extremely valuable asset, the No. 3 pick in the NFL draft. In that 2017 draft class was a young man the entire world would soon come to know as Patrick Mahomes II, as physically gifted a quarterback as had ever come out of the college ranks. But Shanahan didn’t think Mahomes was worthy of a top 3 selection. He would later acknowledge, “I didn't look into him obviously as much as I should have”. The 49ers would go on to swing and miss on a defensive lineman. Patrick Mahomes would be selected by Kansas City at pick 10. By Year 2, he won the MVP and universally was recognized as the most talented quarterback of all time. All nine head coaches who passed on Patrick Mahomes have been fired, except for Shanahan. 

The next major decision Shanahan would be faced with came Year 1, when he traded for Jimmy Garoppolo. The Brady understudy arrived in the Bay Area with a million dollar smile and all the charm a franchise quarterback could hope to have. He played in the final 5 games, winning them all. 

Shanahan had a choice to make that offseason. Commit to Garoppolo long term, or keep his options open. He had a very small sample size of game film with which to evaluate number 10. Garoppolo had only started and finished six NFL games in his career. And while he flashed ability and confidence, he was still an unknown commodity. But Shanahan was sold. He gave Garoppolo $137 million dollars over 5 years. He had his franchise quarterback. 

During the next 3 years, Garoppolo was injured for two of them. The 49ers would lose 12 games in 2018, and 10 games in 2020, missing the playoffs both years. But in 2019, Shanahan and the Niners hit pay dirt. 

Heading into the 2019 season, Shanahan's head coaching career had been a bit underwhelming. His offensive genius was always apparent, but he hadn’t won much at all. Nevertheless, fans and media maintained that if provided adequate talent, Shanahan could be a great coach. 

The 49ers came into 2019 red hot. They started 8-0, with a strong defense and a creative run game. They would make the playoffs as the No. 1 seed and get a bye. Garoppolo was healthy, Shananan looked like a genius, and the 49ers had an opportunity to make a Super Bowl run. 

Much like the Atlanta Falcons run of 2017, the 49ers made quick work of their Divisional and Championship round opponents, thoroughly outclassing both Minnesota and Green Bay. Except there was one glaring spot of subpar performance. The quarterback. Garoppolo hadn’t been a good playoff QB so far. But that didn’t matter, because they were Super Bowl bound. 

Super Bowl 54 was an interesting and ironic matchup, Shanahan vs Mahomes. For the first 54 minutes, Shanahan’s offense was better. He managed the game well, building a 10 point lead late into the fourth quarter. Garoppolo had played adequately, but the game wasn’t over. And just as quick as the 49ers took a commanding lead, the pressure and expectations to close ramped up. 

What happened in the last six minutes of that game was difficult to watch for Niners fans, and even harder to stomach. Their head coach, quarterback, and football team crumbled. Choked. In the most pivotal moment of Shanahan’s young career, a moment that required leadership, poise, and greatness, he came up small. 

Players lost that game on the field of play, but Shanahan lost that game psychologically. He was a genius for 55 minutes. He was great for 3.5 quarters. But in the highest leverage moments, when he needed to be at his best, he could not close. The 49ers lost 31-20.

Shanahan took some heat for the Super Bowl loss. Many fans saw alarming similarities to the Falcons collapse in 2017. But Garoppolo had it even worse. He had come up small. And for the first time, doubt started creeping in about whether Shanahan had gotten the most important position right. Whether Garoppolo was good enough. 

The 2019 season would be used both by Shanahan’s greatest detractors and defenders. On one hand, Shanahan had built an extremely talented team and was dominant for 99 percent of the season. But critics would point to his inability to bring it home, along with his choice at quarterback. A choice he would eventually question. 

In 2021, Shanahan would make a decision that had career-defining ramifications. He determined that Garoppolo was not the future of his team. Next, he traded up to the No. 3 pick of the draft. Shanahan would right the wrong of the 2017 draft. He had passed on a generationally physically gifted quarterback before. Not this time. 

The 49ers played their cards close leading up to the draft. Rumor and debate raged every day for months. On April 29, 2021, Shanahan would select Trey Lance to be his future quarterback. He had to be right. 

Going into the 2021 season, Shanahan made a controversial decision, to sit the quarterback he had decided was his future, and start the quarterback he decided was not. Garoppolo was under center Week 1. 

The team would start 3-5. Fans were upset. Shanahan’s seat was getting warm. Many called for a change at quarterback. But Shanahan would stick to his guns, and the team would heat up on Monday Night Football against the rival Rams. 

Shanahan put on a brilliant display of coaching during the back half of the '21 campaign. His team beat the rival Rams in overtime of Week 18 to make the playoffs. They closed the season by winning 8 of the last 11 games and would go to Dallas in the Wildcard round. 

San Francisco beat Dallas. Shanahan was masterful. Deploying a weapon unlike anything the NFL had seen, Deebo Samuel, a unique blend of explosive acceleration, contact balance, upper body strength, and a determination to punish tacklers. Shanahan correctly and brilliantly identified Samuel as the player with which to ride to wins. Garoppolo wasn’t going to win you games. But Samuel could, and did. 

The 49ers beat the Packers a week later, and made the NFC Championship game for the 2nd time in 3 years. Shanahan once again updated his resume as a great offensive mind, and an ever-maturing head coach. He had silenced his critics, momentarily. And he had an opportunity to win a game, and be in the Super Bowl. 

Shanahan faced off with an old friend in the NFC Championship game, a former understudy in Sean Mcvay. Both Shanahan and McVay had made Super Bowls early into their head coaching careers, both losing. Both men were considered top five offensive minds of their generation. Both men were compared to one another, and debate raged who was better. Shanahan dominated McVay for six straight regular season games. But this was their first ever matchup in the postseason. 

Shanahan and McVay each carried the reputation as excellent young head coaches. And while both had moments of greatness, neither had been great enough when it mattered most. For that game though, McVay was a little better. His Rams beat Shanahan’s 49ers. Once again, Shanahan had put on a masterful coaching performance over the course of a season, but came up just short. McVay would go on to win his first Super Bowl two weeks later, cementing his legacy as a champion, and justifying all the hype he had built up since becoming a head coach. 

Shanahan had seen enough of Garoppolo -- for good this time. Heading into 2022, Lance was QB1. It was his team. Many of Shanahan’s biggest fans were convinced that it was lackluster quarterback play that failed Shanahan in his biggest moments, not coaching errors. And the belief was that Lance had the ability to fully unlock Shanahan’s greatness. Lance would be the quarterback to share Shanahan’s first taste of championship glory. 

The 2022 season was fast approaching. The Lance hype was at full pitch. Although young and inexperienced, the physical traits jumped off the screen. Lance was supremely talented, and a really good human at that. Then one day, 49ers fans opened their phones to breaking news. Garoppolo was coming back for another season to backup Lance. A sliver of doubt and concern set in. Was Shanahan fully committed to Lance? Did Shanahan believe in the quarterback he had mortgaged his team and coaching future for? Only time would tell. 

The 2022 football season was as wild and unpredictable as any I’ve witnessed. Tragedy happened early and horribly. Lance broke his leg Week 2, after Shanahan controversially ran him multiple times early. Fans were devastated and angry. Shanahan took a lot of criticism. Did he not believe in Lance's ability to throw from the pocket? Did he not care whether Lance got injured? Things started happening fast after that. Garoppolo was back under center, a reality all too familiar for Niners fans, and one many weren’t thrilled about. 

Garoppolo looked like Garoppolo. An inexplicably bad, bizarre performance in week 3 in Denver, followed by a few weeks of hit and miss, win and lose. 

Week 8, the Niners did what the Niners had become accustomed to doing under Shanahan. After a shaky start to the season, they started playing really good football. Garoppolo actually looked like a good quarterback for a stretch. He was consistent and protected the ball, two common knocks on him. Until he broke his foot. 

When Garoppolo left the field Week 13 against Miami, the season was over. A third string, Mr. Irrelevant rookie, was now the quarterback. Brock Purdy. Undersized, lacking arm talent, an afterthought. And then he started playing. 

If signing Garoppolo and trading for Lance were the biggest decisions of Shanahan's tenure, Purdy was his luckiest. The rookie was a gamer. They didn’t lose again. Snapping off six straight to make the postseason. On their 3rd quarterback, backs against the wall, the season all but lost, Shanahan coached Mr. Irrelevant to a postseason berth, averaging almost 35 points per game with Purdy under center. 

Shanahan received national, collective praise. This hadn’t been done before. It was his best coaching job to date. The team was loaded. The defense was league best. For the first time in Shanahan’s 49ers tenure, the offense resembled what fans imagined back in 2017. A super bowl run was realistic and fans were brimming with confidence. 

The 49ers beat Seattle, handily. And then they beat Dallas. Or, Dallas beat itself. Nonetheless, Shanahan once again led his team to the postseason, and won multiple playoff games in three of the past four years. Great. Genius. Brilliant. 

The Niners rolled into Philadelphia on a cloudy, championship Sunday afternoon. The Linc was buzzing, fans already a few drinks in and obnoxious as ever. As the 49ers took the field, they were met with a sea of green, boos, and a trash-talking Brandon Graham. But Shanahan’s players were confident. They carried themselves like champions, even though they weren’t. They believed this was their year. 

Shanahan won the toss, and made an early crucial error. He gave the fast-starting Philly offense the ball first. Within minutes, he made another costly mistake. He hesitated to challenge a drop on 4th down deep down the field by an Eagles receiver. Philly punched it in moments later for 7. Momentum secured for the home team. Pressure now on Shanahan's team. The crowd lathered up and at full pitch. And an Eagles defense now ready to pin its ears back and make Purdy's life miserable. 

One the very first drive, Shanahan called a play-action pass, working a deep developing route. His blocking assignments required a backup tight end to account for Haason Reddick one on one. Reddick came screaming off the edge, with total disregard for the tight end or run fake, and ripped Purdys elbow in half. Ball game. 

The 49ers would go on to fall apart mentally and emotionally. Philadelphia had beaten them inside of one quarter. It wasn’t fair. It wasn’t fun to watch. I don’t even think the Eagles wanted to win that way. The game was flat out terrible. But the result was the same as the year prior. Close but no cigar. 

Shanahan is now six years into his head coaching career. He has been great in many areas. A great team builder, accumulating one of the most talented rosters in the league. He has been great at player development, coaching up that talent into a really good football team. He has been a great offensive play designer and play caller, boasting one of the most creative and prolific offenses in pro ball. He has been great at hiring and building a staff, having three first-time coordinators get head jobs already. But he has failed to be great at two crucial aspects of his job: finding and developing a franchise quarterback, and winning in the highest leverage moments. 

Shanahan has become a polarizing topic of conversation around 49ers fan circles. Some have called for his job. Many have criticized him, pointing to an unwillingness to acknowledge decisions he may have gotten wrong. And still others defend him vehemently, placing the blame on injuries, Garoppolo, and bad luck in general. 

Who is Shanahan? He is a good head coach. He has some great abilities. Some great moments. But far too often, in the moment of truth, his football team crumbles. The sample size is growing now. He’s no longer a young, inexperienced head coach. He’s had six years to get the most important position in sports figured out. And yet he’ll enter offseason No. 7 with no sure answer at quarterback. To be considered a great head coach, to cement his legacy, he has to identify and develop his franchise quarterback. And he must deliver a Lombardi Trophy to 4949 Marie P DeBartolo Way.