If Brock Purdy Gets a $50M per Year Extension Can the 49ers Win a Ring?

Jared Goff’s extension in Detroit sets the bar over $43 million per year guaranteed and $53 million with incentives.

The 49ers have made clear that they will extend Brock Purdy, that he’s their franchise quarterback and future. The question is at what price? Some argue that Purdy’s character will lead him to make a team-friendly deal, others say he’s already been the best bargain in sports he’ll look to get paid full market value.

Jared Goff’s new deal with Detroit could provide a guideline, four years $212 million at $170 million guaranteed. The deal is around $43 million annually guaranteed with incentives taking it up to $53 million. Purdy’s extension should be in the same neighborhood.

49ers content creators Jessie Naylor @JNay_LSS and The Coach @ToughUpFront77 had a fiery thought experiment debate on their latest stream asking the key question, can the Niners win a ring if they extend Purdy around $50 million? A tip of the cap and thanks to them for inspiring this column and format.

NO
Naylor’s core point is you cannot pay elite money to a non-elite quarterback and win the Super Bowl. History shows the only quarterbacks to buck that trend were on rookie deals or limited cheap vets on loaded teams. There are a few exceptions to that but not many.

Naylor says there are typically 5-7 elite quarterbacks in a given year, he places Purdy from 8-10. Recent NFL history is littered with teams that paid full market value to non-elite quarterbacks and floundered.

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The history is undeniable. That the Niners will extend Purdy is also undeniable, and here’s the key point, they don’t have a choice. Kyle Shanahan has proven to be poor at quarterback evaluation, the Niners can’t afford to let Purdy go and fish for a truly elite QB. By the time Shanahan finds one the Super Bowl window will have closed.

So they are locked in to Purdy. To Naylor’s point if Purdy does not become elite, history predicts the 49ers likely go ringless. Some fans will argue Purdy already is top-five elite but in my view that’s fandom. If Purdy wasn’t a Niner would the same fans rate him top-five? Likely not.

YES
The Coach argues that while Purdy is not elite yet, he has the necessary traits to become elite in the near-term. His work ethic to improve, competitive drive, and leadership will continue to elevate his game over time. He argues Purdy has the football character shared by elite players, the integrity needed to continue to improve. A trait not shown by Jimmy Garoppolo.

The upcoming season will be a critical test. Coach points to a need for Purdy to improve his play in the rain, add velocity to his fastball, and improve ball placement.

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Coach’s do list is spot-on and realistic. Since Shanahan refuses to practice with a wet ball, Purdy will have to solve the rain issues on his own. Velocity and accuracy aren’t about Purdy’s deep ball, they’re about putting more zip on the ball into tight coverage and converting.

Last year, the Niners lost to defenses that excelled in press man coverage and could pressure the quarterback. This year, Purdy will need to be part of how the Niners beat that with tight window throws and scrambling.

Before he was drafted, Purdy improved his velocity by adding more hip torque in his mechanics. He’ll need to return to that well and look for other mechanical tweaks that can up the velocity, as well as put in upper body work. Improved ball placement can come with game reps and a focus on granular details.

THE MONEY
Coach makes the key point here, Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes made team-friendly deals that enabled their teams to remain competitive, while Aaron Rodgers was about Aaron Rodgers.

It was easier for Brady to sacrifice money given he was married to the top model in the world, but he still did it and it proved to be key for the Patriots to remain a contender. Mahomes is doing the same.

Purdy will also need to do the same. Given his character and desire to compete, I think he’ll make a reasonable deal. Much will depend on his agent and how involved Purdy will be in the process to get a fair deal done.

The Niners penchant to start contract talks by lowballing may try to calibrate salary based on the highest paid Niners in the 30s but that approach ignores the reality of what quarterbacks get paid. A contract around what Goff just received seems to be the blueprint, with the Niners pushing for a longer deal to backload the deal more and ease the early cap hit. Ideally a heavy cap hit from Purdy is timed to happen after Trent Williams retires.

THE RING
Purdy’s play and contract don’t guarantee a title or a ringless fate, but he’s a critical part of the equation. The key is that his play and contract aren’t factors in preventing a ring. That’s doable, provided Purdy elevates his game and signs a relatively team-friendly deal.

Then it’s on the Niners to go win a championship. Purdy’s play and contract extension are the first step of many. The next column will look at the barriers that stand between the 49ers and a ring.