Is Kyle Shanahan a Championship Caliber Head Coach?

Quantifying a head coach's impact on the outcome of a game is impossible. But we do know that really good coaches end up becoming champions.

NFL head football coach is one of the most highly scrutinized jobs in all of sports. Baseball is dominated by analytics. Basketball is dominated by star players. But in football, a head coach has an outsized impact on winning. The criteria with which to determine how good a coach is can get complex. There are so many variables at play that influence an NFL team's success or failure. But ultimately, championships are what separates the good ones from the great ones. 

Kyle Shanahan has been a head football coach for six years. His career win loss record is 52-46. It took him until his sixth season to climb above .500, but a lot of that had to do with the quality of the team he took over in 2017. Shanahan’s career playoff record is 6-3. He has one career Super Bowl appearance with one loss. 

Shanahan’s reputation around the league is one of high regard and respect for his offensive acumen. His last name has carried weight for some time thanks to paternal success. But it’s his first name that’s been ringing in league circles as of late. While Shanahan has had several seasons that would be considered successful, he has not won a championship. He’s still young in head coach years and likely has several decades of coaching left ahead of him. The question is whether or not he has the qualities to lead a football team to a Super Bowl victory. 

Winning in the NFL is hard. Winning in the playoffs is even harder. And winning it all is the ultimate challenge. The NFL is a league of parity. The NBA for example, may only have five teams or fewer on any given year who have a legitimate chance to win a championship. In the NFL, any team can win on any given week. 50 percent of the league is good enough to get hot and make a playoff run. To be champions, you need to be healthy. You need good quarterback play. You need to be able to protect the quarterback. You need your defense to make key stops at high leverage moments, and need a few balls to bounce your way. And you need really good coaching. 

Some of the league's great head coaches failed early on before ultimately finding championship glory. The greatest of all time, Bill Belichick, got his first head coaching job in Cleveland. In four seasons, he compiled a 36-44 record, making the playoffs once. He was subsequently fired, having won a single playoff game during that stretch. 

Belichick would then go on to to meet with Robert Kraft, and become the Patriots next head coach. Year 1, Belichick's team went 5-11. Year 2, they came out the gate 0-2. Belichick's seat warmed up in a hurry. His coaching staff later acknowledged they all expected to be fired if things didn’t turn around in a hurry. It was at that time when a ball bounced Belichick's way. Tom Brady would start Week 3 for an injured Drew Bledsoe. The rest is history. The Patriots would go onto win Super Bowl XXXVI. Belichick won his first Super Bowl at his second head coaching job, in his 6th season as a head coach, at age 48. He would go on to win six rings in total. 

Andy Reid is another all time great head coach. He was hired to coach the Philadelphia Eagles in 1999. Reid was really good right away, amassing 130 wins over a 14-year stay in Philly. He won 10 playoff games. But in his lone Super Bowl appearance, his team lost. Reid would be let go by Eagles ownership early 2013. He had a job with the Kansas City Chiefs a week later. 

Reid has coached the Chiefs for the past ten years. The first six looked much like his Philadelphia tenure. His team won games, made the postseason, but weren’t championship caliber. Many questioned if Andy Reid was a great coach. Questions lingered if he could win the big game. 

Those questioned were answered, in large part by way of a young, gunslinging quarterback who wore number 15. Patrick Mahomes was who Reid needed to unlock his full genius. Andy Reid won his first Super Bowl at his second job, in his 21st season as a head coach, at age 60. He has since won a second Super Bowl. 

Pete Carroll was a young, energetic, rising star within the NFL coaching ranks. He would get his first head job in 1994 with the NY Jets. Carroll would get fired after finishing 6-10. 

In 1997, Carroll was hired to coach Robert Kraft's Patriots. He enjoyed some quick success, winning a playoff game year one. His team wouldn’t win another for the two seasons following, and he’d be fired with a 27-21 win loss record. 

Carroll would go on to find massive success at the collegiate level. But he couldn’t stay away from pro ball. He’d take the head coaching job for Seattle in 2010. Carroll's Seahawks were competitive almost immediately. In 2012 they drafted a young Russell Wilson, who changed the Seahawks, and Carroll's fortune for the next decade. Carroll's team would win the Super Bowl in 2013. Carroll won his first Super Bowl at his third job, in his 8th season as a head coach, at age 61. 

In today's NFL, only two head coaches have won multiple Super Bowls. Belichick and Reid. Both men won their rings with maybe the two best quarterbacks to ever play, Brady and Mahomes. That does help. It took Reid two decades to win his first. Carroll didn’t win a Super Bowl until his head gig, and will go down as an all time great. Coaches such as Mike Tomlin, John Harbaugh and Mike McCarthy all won a Super Bowl quickly after taking over veteran, win-now rosters. They have all failed to return to the Super Bowl in the last decade. The point is that winning in this league is really hard. You need to be at the right place, at the right time, with the right quarterback. And you need to be both really good, and a little lucky. 

Shanahan has had several really good coaching performances throughout his first six seasons. But a coach, like a quarterback, is ultimately judged upon whether or not they are a champion. The question is whether or not Shanahan is made of the stuff of champions.

Quantifying a head coach's impact on the outcome of a game is impossible. But we do know that really good coaches end up becoming champions. It may take a long time. It may take multiple teams and multiple playoff runs with several different quarterbacks. But the cream usually rises to the top, talent eventually wins out, and really good coaching will inevitably yield a great championship run. 

I believe that Shanahan is a special football mind. He is a brilliant tactician, on the cutting edge schematically. He sees the game and its nuances in a way that many of his peers do not. Shanahan is unquestionably good at coaching football. 

Good coaching, even great coaching, does not automatically equate to winning a Super Bowl. But it gives you a damn good chance. Shanahan is young in head football coach years. 43 years old, with a wealth of early experience and knowledge. He will be a champion at some point. 

I would not bet on Shanahan over the field to win a ring in any single year. That would be foolish. The NFL is too competitive with too many determining variables. But I would bet on Shanahan vs. the field to win a Super Bowl over the next decade. Whether he does it in San Francisco or not, I cannot know. 

I see a good, young coach. A coach who did not inherit a good quarterback or a good roster. A coach who has suffered tough losses, swung and missed at quarterbacks and gained invaluable experience. I see a coach with a trajectory for greatness. Nothing is guaranteed in this league, but a guy who makes an NFC Championship game run with a 7th round pick rookie quarterback, is a guy who’s a good quarterback away from a ring. 

It took Belichick two jobs. It took Reid two jobs. It took Carroll three. It may take Shanahan a decade, but he will retire as a champion. He’s too good not to.