Is Shanahan a Genius or Fools Gold?

The blatant and obvious truth is Shanahan just hasn’t won a lot as the coach of the 49ers.

In the offseason of 2017, the 49ers were just coming off another disappointing season. The Faithful were growing tired of their current head coach, and then Jed York finally made the decision to part ways with Chip Kelly and look for a new coach. 

The hottest commodity at the time was Kyle Shanahan, a young hip offensive coordinator who had just helped Matt Ryan have an MVP season and led his team to the Super Bowl. He's the son of the 2 time Super Bowl winning coach Mike Shanahan, who was known to be an offensive guru. How could you go wrong?! He has the look, he has the credentials, and it is in his blood!

The 49ers hired Shanahan, and the expectations were that the 49ers would go back to the golden years, when Coach Bill Walsh had the 49ers offense humming, and once again the 49ers would be title contenders year after year. Well, here we are five years into the tenure of Kyle Shanahan, and we have yet to see consistent genius and, more importantly, consistent winning.

Let me preface this by saying I was the biggest Shanastan out there. I would go on shows with Grant Cohn and Jessie Naylor of All49ers, and continuously defend Shanahan to their dismay, and I would do it PROUDLY! I still want Shanahan to succeed, and that is because I am a 49ers fan. However, this offseason my Shanastan glasses came off, and it forced me to look at some harsh truths about Shanahan’s tenure with the 49ers.

The blatant and obvious truth is Shanahan just hasn’t won a lot as the coach of the 49ers. Outside of the 2019/2020 season (which did lead to a Super Bowl appearance) the 49ers have had losing records and missed the playoffs. He has won less than 46 percent of his games. In the past when I was faced with those facts, I would argue, “Well, he inherited a terrible roster, and injuries have been a major issue, and when he had a full season with a healthy starter he went to the Super Bowl." I would walk away feeling smug, like I had won the argument. Truthfully, I probably did, in 2019/2020, but in 2021/2022, the same arguments cannot be made.

This is Shanahan's roster. We can argue about why this team has so many injuries -- is it the training staff? Is it drafting players with questionable health issues? Is it bringing in veterans who are past their prime and injury prone? I don’t know, and to be honest I don’t care to argue that.

The promise of Shanahan was that he was an offensive genius, and we would go back to the Walsh years of having a dominant offense year after year. It wasn’t until the end of the loss to the Seahawks this week that I realized, in the 5 years that Shanahan has been the coach of the 49ers, the strength of this team hasn’t been the offense, it has been the defense. That made me further ponder, well what is the point of having an offensive genius if the offense isn’t good, let alone great? Then I further thought, wait a minute, how is he an offensive genius if there is nothing genius about the offense?!

I know it sounds like blasphemy, and I admit it’s a little salacious to say the least, Shanahan is a very creative play caller, and his schemes definitely fall under the “genius” category. The harsh reality is though, as the head coach of the 49ers, outside of the 2019/2020 season, this offense has been fairly mediocre.

I get it, you don’t believe me! I’m just a hater. Well, let’s look at this season. The 49ers have played 4 games this season.

Week 1: Detroit Lions. The 49ers had the whole offseason to get ready for this game. Every rep, and every practice, was geared toward how the 49ers would play the Lions. How many points did the 49ers put up? 41, a great number. However, the Lions defense gives up 31 points per game. Of course, 41 is better, however 7 of those points were scored by a pick 6 from Dre Greenlaw. So, the offense truly only scored 34 points. That is very close to what the Lions give up on average.

You must be thinking, well I’m sure in the next 3 games, the 49ers were able to outplay the rest of the league in offense. Shanahan has a healthy starting quarterback and weapons! He is a genius!!!

Week 2: The Eagles. Their defense gives up on average 21 points per game. The 49ers scored 17.

Week 3: The Packers. Their defense gives up 28 points per game. The 49ers scored 28

Week 4: The Seahawks. Their defense gives up 26 points per game, the 49ers scored 21.

Based off the numbers, the 49ers offense, in Year 5 of Shanahan, the offensive genius, is average at best. Possibly even below average.

You may be thinking, “Shanahan hasn’t gotten the guys he wants, and hasn’t had a chance to work with the talent that he wants.” Well, lets look deeper into the make up of his offense today.

1st Round Talent Shanahan has drafted: Mike McGlinchy, Brandon Aiyuk (Traded up), Trey Lance ( Traded 3 1s).

2nd Round Talent Shanahan has drafted: Deebo Samuel, Aaron Banks.

Players he has Traded for: Jimmy Garoppolo, Trent Williams, Dee Ford.

Players he has gotten through Free Agency: Alex Mack, Mohamed Sanu, Trent Sherfield, Samson Ebukam

Most of the offensive starters the 49ers have right now, are guys Shanahan and his staff have handpicked.

My biggest critique of Shanahan is the development of his quarterback. The truth is, there is none. Jimmy Garoppolo has been in Shanahan's system for a full 3.5 years now. Where is the improvement? Shanahan has done so well with developing Garoppolo as a starting QB, that he traded away 3 firsts to be able to get his replacement. How much confidence can you really have that the next 3 years from Trey Lance will show drastic improvement, when we haven’t seen any from the 3 years Shanahan has had with Garoppolo?

I don’t claim to have all the answers, I understand the situation is probably more complicated than I am laying out. The fact is, the 49ers are now 2-2, and in last place in an extremely competitive NFC West. They have 2 quarterbacks who at any point can be the starter, and an offense that has failed to be anything more than mediocre according to the stats. The season is young, and there are still 13 more games for the 49ers to turn things around and Shanahan to right the ship.

However, it is becoming more and more of a reality that maybe….just maybe….Shanahan isn’t the “genius” we all were told that he is.