Kyle Shanahan's 49ers Report Card
Recent conversations on YouTube and Twitter have asked if Kyle Shanahan is criticized unfairly. Let’s give credit where due and criticize him when it’s earned.
SUCCESS STORIES
Coaching Staff: One of the primary jobs of a head coach is picking his staff. Bobby Turner, Chris Foerster, Kris Kocurek, Johnny Holland, and now Steve Wilks, each the best in the league at what they do. All while losing defensive coordinators to head coaching gigs and the offensive assistants that go with them. Shanahan excels here. Grade: A+
Offensive Scheme: There’s scheming guys open and then there’s scheming guys wide open. The Niners are among the league’s best in target separation from the defender. Shanahan’s scheme allows his quarterbacks to not have to throw into tight windows. Jimmy Garoppolo and Brock Purdy led the league in expected completion percentage in the regular season at 69.3 and 69.0 respectively. The running game was also one of the league’s best after adding Christian McCaffrey. Grade: A
Defense Diagnosis: Niners players talk of how Shanahan can see what a team is looking to accomplish against his offense and call a play on the fly that burns the defense for a long gain or a score. Grade: A
Performance: Three Final Four appearances in four years, but no ring. Grade: A-
Adjustments: Last year in each game that McCaffrey had a full week to prepare, the final nine games of the season, the Niners scored on the first or second possession in the second half of every game. They scored a touchdown on their first possession of the second half in five of the nine. In the playoffs, three touchdowns and a field goal vs. Seattle in the 2nd half. A punt and then a touchdown and field goal vs. Dallas. Why do the Niners always elect to kick off after winning the coin toss? Here you go. Grade: A-
Game Planning and Play Sequencing: Shanahan is one of the league’s best, but he isn’t infallible, it usually takes six to eight games for the offense to find itself. It’s also a weakness to feature the running game but have a passing attack that doesn’t take advantage of eight defenders in the box with only one safety in the middle of the field by going deep and wide, tying into the quarterback profile. That said, once CMC arrived, the game plans worked, averaging 27.5 points per game. Grade: B+
WE’VE GOT PROBLEMS
Preparing for the Season: The Niners take it easy in camp and barely play the starters in the exhibition games. The problem is then they open the year not ready to play and not knowing their offensive identity. Contention since 2019 when they opened hot at 8-0, but since then: 2020 4-6, 2021 3-5, 2022 3-4. By not playing for January in September, the Niners concede the No. 1 seed. Grade: C
Closing Championship Playoff Games: Up 10 in the Super Bowl 4th quarter and most fans blame the defense, but the offense not burning the clock kept the defense on the field and they became gassed. Five plays for 17 yards, 3:04. Three plays, five yards, 1:03. Seven plays for 27 yards, 1:19. Kansas City scored touchdowns after each of those drives. Complementary football, needed to run the ball more to give the defense rest. Didn’t. Lost. A recurring theme for Shanahan. Grade: C-
Game Management: Shanahan has had his share of clock management issues over the years. On the DeVonta Smith play, a head coach of six years has to know instinctively with no help, throw the flag. Why are you prioritizing first-half timeouts over a play that can set up the game’s first touchdown if you do nothing, or a long field goal attempt if you’re right? Shanahan cannot repeat that mistake. Grade: D+
The Madden Mindset and The Purdy Injury: Shanahan is criticized by some as investing in the play design and execution and downplaying players. That overuse of the starting running back in the first half with minimal rotation is about optimizing the play and injury risk isn’t considered. All we can go by are the results, a lot of injuries.
The Purdy injury play, what catches my eye is this. Against Dallas, Shanahan brought extra help on Micah Parsons, but against Philly, he has fresh off the inactive list Tyler Kroft solo on Haason Reddick - 2nd Team All-Pro. Should Purdy have stepped up in the pocket? Absolutely, but he’s a rookie and short with a lifetime instinct of not stepping up. Shanahan needed to factor in Purdy, Kroft, and Reddick and didn’t. X and O not who. It’s not frequent, but it happens. I’m concerned by that. Grade: D+
The Draft and the Island of Misfit Toys: A rite of spring. Shanahan reaches for an offensive toy in the draft in the second, third, or fourth round. The player bombs and is given a one-way ticket to the Island of Misfit Toys. C.J. Beathard, Joe Williams, Dante Pettis, Jalen Hurd, Trey Sermon, Ty Davis-Price, and imo Danny Gray - wasn’t a fan before, during, or well after he was picked, Invasion of the Body Catchers. Grade: D
Injuries: The Niners are one of the ten most injured teams in the league annually going on a decade. That precedes Shanahan but he’s also done nothing to address it. Running backs are overused and go down. Now that they have CMC, rotations are a must, particularly with a deep room this year. The media interviews ex-Niners who say the team pushed for them to come back early when they weren’t fully healed. Look at the pressure on Purdy to play Week 1. Grade: D
Quarterback Evaluation, Development, and the Lance Trade: Start with Jimmy Garoppolo and the Tennis Court of Doom. 20 yards and in, the numbers in, Jimmy can complete it. Outside of the tennis court can be risky. Sanders in the Super Bowl, Juice in Nashville. They were seduced by wins and then paid the price.
The Niners were eager to pay the price for DeShaun Watson with three No. 1s and then his legal trouble hit. The picks burn a hole in Kyle’s pocket and he turns to the draft, when he should have pivoted to another vet. If you are giving up that much, know what you are getting. Instead, it’s Lance. Rocket arm, can run, bright, nice kid, no reps. But his development arc didn’t match the team’s win-now mindset. Lance is not developed.
This is a huge problem for the organization with Kyle being accountable to no one. No wise old owl in the organization to tell him no, you aren’t doing that. And here we are. Grade: F
Shanahan’s Team Blueprint: Non-elite quarterback, right side of the offensive line acquired specifically for outside-zone run blocking, pass protection a lesser priority. They have to save cap room somewhere, but the offensive line is not the place to do so.
Niners vs. Dallas, the Cowboys applied a 48.5% pressure rate on Purdy's dropbacks, where he went 4-12 for 55 yards. Therefore with a clean pocket, Purdy was 15-17 for 159 yards. This isn’t worth investing in? Purdy’s clean pocket numbers last year were astronomical. The best investment in improving the offense is improving the pass protection.
Pass block win rate last year was 57% per ESPN Analytics, 20th in the league. And that was the regular season. Playoffs were worse. The Eagles had a pressure rate of 61.9%. Why did Dallas hold the Niners to 19 points? Pass protection. How was Purdy knocked out for the season and the offseason? Pass protection. What is the Niners biggest barrier to a ring? Pass protection. I don’t understand why Shanahan doesn’t get this, or why he allows it to continue. Cap strategies can easily adapt.
Fortunately, they can finally get a great right tackle cheap in next year’s draft. Some fans say no no get a left tackle Trent Williams will retire soon. Wrong answer. If Williams retires he can be replaced in free agency. This draft has 1st and 2nd rounders with needed experience at right tackle. The Niners need bookend elite tackles, left and right. Shanahan’s blueprint has to change, it must evolve. Until then, Grade: F
I will be accused of hindsight, but I’ll point out that all of this is fixable, preventable, and helps the team succeed.
Am I calling for Shanahan to be fired or traded? No. I am watching two things, whether the Niners pick a right tackle in the first round of the 2024 draft and if the 2024 starter will be Brock Purdy or Kirk Cousins. My warning on Cousins, season on the line 4th and 8 he throws the ball two yards – because he’s playing for his stats.
2024 is the year to evaluate Shanahan and we’ll see what he does.
