Moving Day: Could the 49ers Trade Trey Lance or Brandon Aiyuk?

U-Hauls are circling the 49ers facility at Santa Clara like vultures.

The NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport says the Niners are fielding calls for Trey Lance. Rumors continue on Brandon Aiyuk possibly being dealt. U-Hauls are circling the 49ers facility at Santa Clara like vultures. With the Niners not picking until No. 99 currently, rumors of moving up in the draft have some wind in the sails if not logic in the deals.

Trey Lance
Con: They can’t deal Lance before they know what’s happening with Brock Purdy. They have to see what they have in Trey, they can’t dump him after four games, he has significant upside. They can’t start the year with Sam Darnold and a rookie. They gave up three No. 1s they can’t trade Lance without high value back.

Pro: This is now or never, trade Lance now and get a 3rd and change while you still can. If Lance sits or gets hurt, the most the Niners will get going forward is a 5th. They are already splitting reps with Darnold and view Lance as QB 2.5 at best. They are talking with Dorian Thompson-Robinson and evaluating mid-round quarterbacks. All of this comes down to their true evaluation of Lance, QB 2.5 is already a tell.

Clearing up myths:
The cap hit of trading Lance per 49ers content creator and capologist Jason Hurley is 1.55 million. There is no dead cap hit going forward. Trading Lance after the draft is highly unlikely. There have only been a handful of post-draft quarterback trades in the last three years and all of them have been for a fifth-round pick or later.

Who offers what?
On talent, Lance would be a 2nd round pick in this draft competing with Hendon Hooker. But what a team would offer also has to factor in that Lance has only played four games in the NFL with one year in college and has just two years left on his rookie contract. Realistically the Niners would be lucky to get a late 2nd-early 3rd in a trade deal and more likely a mid -3rd.

The 49ers need picks now. Next year they have all their selections and a slew of compensatory picks. Which may lead them to be willing to take a 3rd as the highest pick, provided they also get a 4th now. The Niners have no 4th round pick currently.

In terms of who, I begin with my golden rule of GMs, teams always value the player that killed them. Holds true in every sport. Trey Lance’s best game, Houston. The Texans coaching staff led by DeMeco Ryans and Offensive Coordinator Bobby Slowik know Trey and how he can contribute on the field and to the team culture. This time no veterans saying we want Jimmy Garoppolo. A clean slate. The Niners send Lance to the AFC and a good situation for him to develop. That part of it fits.

The offer is the question. Applying the realistic expectation of no 2nd rounders, Houston has No. 65, No. 73 and No. 104. They offer the latter two for Lance. Having two thirds makes it easier for the Texans to part with one of them. So No. 73 and No. 104 become the baseline and the Niners see if anything better comes in. Minnesota (87, 119), Washington (97, 118) and others could be interested but it seems reasonable that a Houston deal would be the best on the table.

Would the Niners take it? Again, everything depends on their true valuation of Lance. Most fans would say absolutely not, but I think the Niners might. Now is their last window to deal Lance for at least a 3rd, they believe they’re in a Super Bowl window, and are motivated to optimize the opportunity.

Those against trading Lance would then point to a quarterback room of Sam Darnold and a rookie. Those for a deal would point to Kyle Shanahan stumbling out of the gate annually regardless of the quarterback.

For me, I'd trade Lance even though I’m pro-Trey. The Niners won’t give him an opportunity to be the franchise quarterback, so give him a chance elsewhere.

Who would they draft?
As for 73 and 104, packaging both gets to 59 on the trade value chart. That puts them within range of Derick Hall at edge, Luke Musgrave and Sam LaPorta at tight end, Sydney Brown at safety, Kelee Ringo at corner and Joe Tippman at center. They could also use 59 as a platform to trade higher.

If they stayed put 73 is no man’s land in this draft, better value is had by moving up or down, going up could be worth it if Ole Miss wide receiver Jonathan Mingo is still on the board, dropping to the 80s can assure them of getting Wanya Morris or Blake Freeland at tackle.

104 could land Michigan State wide receiver Jayden Reed, safeties Ji’Ayir Brown of Penn State, J.L. Skinner of Boise State, or Cal’s Daniel Scott, East Carolina 4.3 running back Keaton Mitchell, or Pitt tackle Carter Warren.

Brandon Aiyuk
For several weeks there have been rumors of teams asking about Brandon Aiyuk, with one noting the New York Giants could offer No. 25 for him.

The thinking is the Niners can’t afford to have both Aiyuk and Deebo Samuel on the books. However, the NFL’s new TV deal takes effect this year and Over The Cap projects next year’s cap will go up $31 million to $256 million.

Estimates expect the cap to go up around $20 million per year for a few years thereafter. With the cap jumping by $70 million over three years, there’s more room than people realize. Aiyuk and Deebo is possible, at least for the next few years.

Who are the draft targets?
Parachuting to No. 25, the Niners would look first at right tackle. By nearly all projections, two Day 1 starting tackles would be left on the board. One would be Ohio State mountain Dawand Jones. At 6-8/374 he’s too massive to fit in a zone scheme, he has speed, leverage, and lateral mobility limitations. The other would be Anton Harrison of Oklahoma, the youngest of the elite tackles at 21. He’s 6-6/315 known for quickness, mirroring, a wide base, and playing with exceptional intelligence and recognition. He’ll need to work on power, as he only lifted 24 bench reps. He gave up one sack and nine pressures but did have eight penalties. Long term, Harrison would be a superb fit and give them a reliable anchor at right tackle.

BPA at No. 25 is who drops and the mocks for this draft have been all over the place. Notre Dame tight end Michael Mayer is expected to go in this range. If he’s the Niners target, they’d need to keep that under wraps until the pick. Jerry Jones has announced that Mayer won’t go past the Cowboys at 26. If he knew the Niners were drafting at 25 he’d leapfrog them to make sure he still got Mayer. The Niners and Giants would need to keep their trade incognito.

Mayer had a poor Combine but his game tape is all-world. Excellent receiver, the best blocker in the class, Mayer and George Kittle would be a lethal combination for the 49ers.

That said, it’s fun to think about, but while a Lance trade is possible, I think Aiyuk stays. The cap is moving up quickly, the Niners can keep Aiyuk and Deebo for at least two years.