NFC Playoff Race: The 49ers Need Some Help

Win the next two games and the Niners stay alive. Lose either one and it’s trouble.

January 20, 2024; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) during the fourth quarter in a 2024 NFC divisional round game against the Green Bay Packers at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Terada-Imagn Images / Kyle Terada-Imagn Images

This Sunday’s divisional game against Seattle and next week’s matchup in Green Bay are vital to the 49ers' playoff chances. Win both and their playoff hopes increase. Lose to Seattle and the division is essentially gone, lose to Green Bay and in likelihood no wild card. The season is now do or die.

SEATTLE

A win keeps their chances at the division crown alive. A loss likely knocks them out as they would have three division losses to Arizona’s zero. The Cardinals should win the division record tiebreaker, forcing the 49ers to have a better record than Arizona to win the division.

While the Niners only trail the Cards by a half-game right now, San Francisco has one of the league’s toughest closing schedules and Arizona one of the softest, with remaining games against New England and Carolina.

GREEN BAY

The Green Bay game is arguably the most important game of the year now, a win keeps them in the wild card hunt, a loss probably knocks them out of it.

Currently, Minnesota is the 5 seed and beat the Niners head-to-head, Washington is at 6, and Green Bay is 7.  The tiebreaker with Washington would go to conference record, the Commanders are 5-1 and the Niners 3-3. Washington still has two games against Dallas plus the Saints. If Philadelphia is the wild card, they have a 4-2 conference record and still play Carolina and Dallas.

Beat the Packers and the Niners win the head-to-head tiebreaker, then they’d need to match Green Bay’s record to get the final wild card slot. Which may also prove difficult. The Packers still play the fading Bears twice, plus Seattle and New Orleans.

The wild card is nearly out of reach, lose to Green Bay and I think that’s the nail in the coffin.

NFC WEST

Arizona controls its own fate. If the Cardinals beat Seattle twice and then the Rams in week 16 they will clinch the division tiebreaker with the Niners. Arizona will be at 5-0 in the division with one game to play and the 49ers will have at least two losses. The season finale with the Niners won’t matter. The Cards just need to match the Niners record to take the division.

49ERS PLAYOFF SCENARIOS

Wild Card – The Niners win in Green Bay and at least match the Packers final record, they are likely the 7 seed and would play the 2 seed in the wild card round, currently Philadelphia. Win that game and they go to Detroit in the divisional round with the Lions coming off a bye.

NFC West – Arizona loses a divisional game to Seattle or the Rams, and the Niners win the season finale over the Cardinals. Running the tiebreaker scenarios, Arizona needs to lose in Minnesota (in three weeks) and the Niners need to win at least three against Green Bay, Buffalo, Chicago, Miami, and Detroit. The Packers game looms large.

Win the NFC West and the Niners are probably the 4 seed. Atlanta is positioned to win the NFC South and has a 6-2 conference record to San Francisco’s 3-3. The 49ers would likely host Green Bay in the wild card round, win that and they go to Detroit if all the wild card teams lose.

NFC PLAYOFF PREDICTIONS

1. Detroit 14-2. The victory in Houston is the kind of game champions win. The Lions lead the league in point differential, another sign of a contender. Deadline addition Za’Darius Smith takes the field this week.

2.      Philadelphia 12-4. Washington on Thursday night is a huge game for the division. Outside the NFC East, they have the Rams, Ravens, Panthers, and Steelers left.

3.      Arizona 11-6. Playing their best football right now and facing an easy schedule.

4.      Atlanta 10-7. The Falcons are probably too inconsistent to make it to 11 wins.

5.      Green Bay 12-5. They should win at least three of their remaining out of division games: 49ers, Miami, Seattle, and New Orleans.

6.      Washington 11-6. Jayden Daniels is the OROY and adding Marshon Lattimore at the deadline will help.

7.      Minnesota 11-6. The 5-0 start set up the season. They nearly beat Detroit, this is a solid, well-coached club.

The 49ers are on the outside looking in. Even if they went 10-7 and beat Green Bay they lose on record in the division and the wild card. Going 11-6 would require winning every remaining game outside of Buffalo and Detroit. The team doesn’t have the consistency for that.

To have a chance at the playoffs, the 49ers will need to find consistency, complementary football, and 60 minutes of sharp execution by the Green Bay game in two weeks.

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