Pro Handicapper Says the 49ers Will Fall Short of Expectations in 2024

Don't be surprised if the 49ers win 11 or fewer games.

Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; Fox Sports broadcaster and former NFL player Michael Strahan interviews San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan after winning the NFC Championship football game against the Detroit Lions at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports / Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

The 49ers are almost universally considered the favorite to repeat as the NFC Champions. But professional handicapper and NBCSportsBet analyst Drew Dinsick feels they're being overrated.

Here's what Dinsick said recently on NBC's Bet the EDGE podcast:

"They have an absolutely brutal schedule. There are specific stretches where they are playing the Bills and the Chiefs and some of the better teams in their own conference at a huge rest disadvantage in the time of the season when you're dealing with injuries and you're trying to set yourself up for a playoff run. To me, it looks like trouble for this team. The cracks were pretty clearly present in the Niners defense last year, and now that unit looks to have taken a step back. The aging curve is looming for a lot of these guys. If this all of a sudden turns into Nick Bosa, Fred Warner and nine other guys, the defense looks susceptible to me, particularly against a schedule that has a ton of elite quarterbacks. Elite.

"I don't think the path goes through San Francisco 49ers in the NFC this year even though the market seems pretty convinced it will. This is in no way taking a shot at Kyle Shanahan who still is the best offensive coach in the NFL by a margin in my opinion. It's not taking a shot at Brock Purdy and calling for him to have any type of meaningful regression. But the swirling rumors that they may trade one of their top two targets -- don't love that. The aging and the replacement players they have now on the offensive line look a little dangerous to me. Using your first-round draft pick on Ricky Pearsall was a tough thing to swallow considering where their clear and obvious weaknesses are. The starting right tackle is Colton McKivitz. The roster doesn't look like a bunch of Hall of Famers anymore and I think the market is still treating them that way.

"The idea of them meeting expectations this year is going to be tough and it comes down to schedule more than anything else. They are up against the NFC North, they're up against the AFC East, they have to play the Chiefs and they're at a disadvantage against almost all of the good teams that they play including the Cowboys. They have to play the Cowboys off a Bye, they have to play the Bills off a Bye in Buffalo late in the season. If I did not know better, I'd think there was somebody in the league office who was putting together the schedule who wanted to really test the Niners this year. It's not going to be as easy for them. This is a team that won 12 games last year and skated to a no. 1 seed in a really off year for the NFC. This year, all of a sudden their division is tougher with a healthy Kyler Murray and a more talented Arizona team, a Rams team that even in the absence of Aaron Donald is still live to give you a test offensively, and then I think their defense has taken a meaningful step backward."

Dinsick's analysis is extremely fair and sober. Most people are unwilling to look at the 49ers this critically, so I applaud him. The 49ers are still an excellent team, but they're decidedly older and worse on paper than they were last season when their schedule was much easier.

Don't be surprised if the 49ers win 11 or fewer games.