Ranking the Likeliest Scenarios the 49ers Bring in a Quarterback
Quarterback discussions has taken over the realm of the San Francisco 49ers.
There is no doubt that they are and will continue to explore their options as the offseason plays out. However, there are some scenarios that are more likely than others to occur.
Here are the rankings of the likeliest scenarios where the 49ers will bring in a quarterback.
3. Trading for a quarterback
The 49ers tapped the shoulder of the Detroit Lions about Matthew Stafford. Unfortunately for them, they could not reel in Stafford regardless of if they offered a package for him or not. The Los Angeles Rams swooped in and immediately priced them out. There are still options out there to trade for like a Deshaun Watson. However, I just do not envision a scenario where the 49ers pull the trigger on Watson or any other quarterback in a trade.
Trading for a quarterback would mean that the 49ers are swinging for the fences. It takes a lot of risk in mortgaging the future with draft picks, which is the likely cost of acquiring an established quarterback. That is something the 49ers do not have in their DNA. Where the Rams love going all out to build their team in the short-term, the 49ers take calculated risks and stick to the more conservative side. Even the trade that got them Jimmy Garoppolo wasn't that risky. So unless they can get a quarterback out there for less than a first-round pick, they will not pull the trigger or inquire on a trade. It is unlikely at best.
2. Signing a free agent
Excluding bringing back Josh Rosen and any of the other backups, I don't think signing a veteran free agent is a goal for the 49ers. Lets say Ryan Fitzpatrick is their priority, since he is arguably the best available, and he has mutual interest. The 49ers are looking at a one-year deal and salary floating around $5 to $8 million range. Keeping him as a backup would not be wise because now the 49ers have worsened their quarterback situation salary cap wise. So do they cut Jimmy Garoppolo then?
I don't believe they would. That is yet another risky move for the 49ers to execute. If their salary cap was in a manageable state, then perhaps they do leave Fitzpatrick as a backup. And if you're Fitzpatrick, you're probably thinking it is a sweet deal because you know Garoppolo is going to get hurt at some point. Unfortunately, the 49ers do not have this luxury. If they go the free agent route, then they would have to cut Garoppolo and look to draft a quarterback. These are moves that the 49ers do not have in them, so I would lump this scenario almost as unlikely as a trade.
1. Draft a quarterback
Ding ding ding.
This is the scenario that is the likeliest of them all. The 49ers can approach this in a ton of different ways and its by leveraging their 12th pick. They can use that and other picks to move up to get a premier quarterback talent, stand pat and take whoever falls to them, or move back down for a developmental player to sit behind Garoppolo. It is just easier to execute for the 49ers and not as risky as the others. Best part of all is the cost-control the 49ers will have with a rookie quarterback.
The only path that I can see with Garoppolo being let go in this scenario is if the 49ers traded up for a guy. At that point, the 49ers would have invested pretty heavily in a rookie while paying a premium salary to Garoppolo. That just wouldn't fly. It wouldn't be a smart business decision in that sense.
With that said, I would say that the 49ers are keeping Garoppolo. I'd call it 80-20 right now in favor of keeping him, which can obviously change. The offseason is still building up. The 2020 season isn't even over yet. Everything is fluid right now, but regardless do not expect any serious gambles on the 49ers' end.
