Super Bowl Preview: 49ers on Defense, Willis to HOF

Analyst Warren Sharp notes that since Week 10, the Niners rank 27th in the league in the percentage of drives that reached goal to go at 18.8%, nearly double what Kansas City has allowed.

Patrick Willis, Hall of Famer. Overdue and well-earned. Bryant Young welcomed his teammate into the Hall in a moving goosebump moment as they shared a heartfelt hug that took them from then to now.

Ray Lewis, Junior Seau, Patrick Willis. The NFL's elite linebackers. Smart, fast, violent. Willis, the best linebacker in 49ers history, is finally in.

The 49ers wish they could have Willis for this one. The San Francisco defense enters the Super Bowl as an enigma.

In the playoffs, the run defense has been gashed for 159 rushing yards per game. Two sacks, both by Nick Bosa. The defense that taught the league how to stop Philadelphia is over two months in the rear-view mirror.

Their A game has shown up for big plays, but rarely the sequence of three plays needed to get off the field quickly. Analyst Warren Sharp notes that since Week 10, the Niners rank 27th in the league in the percentage of drives that reached goal to go at 18.8%, nearly double what Kansas City has allowed.

Scheme
Steve Wilks likes to open games in base defense with zone coverage back to deny the big play deep. If he does that in the Super Bowl, he’ll likely spot Kansas City with a 7-0 lead on the game’s opening drive.

A theme on both ends of this game is that the Niners will need to be the aggressor and attack the Chiefs creatively. If the defense plays back and challenges the Chiefs to slowly march down the field, that’s exactly what Kansas City does. The Niners must go out of their comfort zone to create stops.

Wilks may utilize a five-man front to match up with Kansas City’s 12 and 13 personnel. The Chiefs have used multiple tight end sets on 45% of their plays in the playoffs.

The danger of a five-man front is Patrick Mahomes in the passing game. If the Niners are to make a five-man front work, they will need to apply tight coverage against Kansas City’s primary passing targets Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice.

Running Game
Isaiah Pacheco has run for over 250 yards in three playoff games with three touchdowns. He averages four yards per carry evenly split inside-outside.

In the playoffs, the Niners rushing defense is solid up the middle allowing four yards a run, but vulnerable wide allowing 6.9 yards per carry. The wide nine defensive front leaves gaps that were exploited by Detroit and Green Bay - hence the possible shift to a five-man front or bringing a safety up to stack the box.

Pacheco ran for 935 yards on the season, over 40% of his yardage came after contact. The Niners will need to swarm to the ball and can’t afford the effort and pursuit angle mistakes of the last two games.

Passing Game
Mahomes hasn’t thrown an interception in his last six playoff games and has been sacked only five times. He protects the ball and down-distance, so the 49ers goal needs to be speeding him up to force Mahomes to throw the ball away.

Sending six rushers in cover zero fills the scramble lanes so Mahomes has nowhere to run, and it speeds him up. That will need to be part of Wilks' arsenal, along with simulated pressure with blitzes from unexpected places.

Baltimore produced a sack by playing an overloaded line that forced the Kansas City offensive line to shift to protect. That opened an unblocked blitz lane on the weak side for Kyle Hamilton to get the sack. The Niners can try to duplicate that by sending Fred Warner or Dre Greenlaw to finish the play and sack Mahomes.

Andy Reid is known for screens and Rice led the league in screen yardage. Kansas City is 2nd in the league in success rate off screens while the Niners are 30th in stopping it. Once again the Niners will need to go off-script to succeed.

The Chiefs' go-to pass play is a 3-level perimeter attack where targets are split by five yards vertically and flood zones to set up Kelce and Rice. The Niners cover three base defense succeeds in the middle of the field but can be challenged wide.

Twist
Steve Wilks’ expertise is defending the passing game. The twist he’ll need to try to execute is how to take away Kelce and Rice. In the playoffs, the Chiefs have focused more of their offense on three players: Pacheco, Kelce, and Rice. Wilks needs to take the passing targets away and make Mahomes beat the Niners with the other receiving targets.

How? Put Charvarius Ward or Ambry Thomas on Kelce on passing downs. Double Rice. Free the linebackers to focus on Pacheco.

Reid presents Wilks with a choice. Do what you do and protect against chunk plays deep and secure the middle or deploy resources from the middle to stop his wide attack. Wilks will have to give to get in this game, he will need to sacrifice something he doesn’t want to surrender middle to make the play wide and get the stop, or speed Mahomes into an incompletion.

If the Niners do what they do the Chiefs have long touchdown drives. The 49ers must change it up. Five-man fronts, simulated pressure, unexpected coverage schemes.

Wilks must take risky gambles to create the stops the Niners need to get off the field and win the game. Welcome to Vegas.