The 49ers Season at Risk: Talent Evaluation and the Draft

In part 2 of why the 49ers season is at risk, poor talent evaluation and undervaluing the draft.

Sep 22, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan looks on as players warm up prior to the game against the Los Angeles Rams at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

It follows that a team doubling down on veterans would also undervalue the draft and struggle in talent evaluation. All of that fits together. If talent evaluation falls short, the team has to turn to veterans in trade and free agency, as the draft takes on a lesser role.

Christian McCaffrey and Trent Williams acquired through trade. The impact drafted players on offense currently led by two seventh rounders (Brock Purdy and Jauan Jennings) and an undrafted free agent (Jordan Mason).

The primary example of poor talent evaluation and undervaluing the draft, the trade for Trey Lance. Three first-round picks for the wrong guy. Also the trade for McCaffrey, it proved worthwhile but the cost in draft capital was high, showing a team that doesn't place their highest priority on the draft, giving up picks in the 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 5th rounds.

The 49ers have been saved by comp picks in the draft, if not for that, draft picks would have been scarce. The comp picks essentially saved the Niners from themselves and their preference to move picks for vets.

THE DRAFT

The 49ers hit rate in the draft has been poor in the early rounds (through the 4th) and outstanding late (5th through 7th). That speaks to misses by Kyle Shanahan early and a weakness in his talent evaluation.

Since Shanahan and John Lynch took over in 2017, in the first four rounds the Niners have drafted two impact starters on offense and two on defense: Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, Fred Warner, and Nick Bosa.

The Samuel pick stemmed from Shanahan coaching at the Senior Bowl and seeing Deebo live. Credit to Shanahan that he identified the talent, but is the pick made if Shanahan wasn’t at Mobile? Fortunate.

The Aiyuk pick was on a recommendation from then-Arizona State coach Herm Edwards to his buddy Lynch. The Bosa pick was a gimme at #2 overall. So the lone impact player in the first four rounds that was scouted and picked is Warner.

By the numbers

On offense in the first four rounds, two impact starters in Samuel and Aiyuk out of 15 picks, nine busts. An impact hit rate of 13% and a bust rate of 75%. The nine busts all Shanahan picks at quarterback, running back, wide receiver, and tight end. That’s the danger of having an offensive coordinator picking for his offense out of self-interest as the defacto GM.

On defense in the first four rounds, two impact starters in Warner and Bosa out of eleven picks with six busts. An impact hit rate of 18% and a bust rate of 54%.

Why do the 49ers lack impact young talent, especially on defense? Poor talent evaluation with too many busts, and a bias toward offense picks, all to be expected under Shanahan. As a reminder, on roles and responsibilities, this quote from Lynch, “Kyle has the 53, I have the 90.”

All the picks through four rounds and only one of them an impact starter as a product of scouting and selection with no special circumstances. When I say that Shanahan is the biggest barrier to a 49ers championship, poor talent evaluation like this is a key part of why.

The evaluation weakness is further compounded by Shanahan’s clear bias for veterans, and players fully versed in his system. Purdy, Mason, and Jennings were all buried or with limited roles until injury forced them on the field.

Shanahan’s bias played out in the Rams game late with Ronnie Bell inexplicably on the field and targeted with the game on the line, despite a drop earlier in the game, and a camp with more of the same.

Poor talent evaluation can also lead to overvaluing players from Bell to a reliance on Jake Brendel at center and Colton McKivitz at right tackle. Shanahan’s cap philosophy of using the offensive line as a cap-savings center comes at a cost on the field. Would Brendel or McKivitz start on any other team? Probably not.

The offensive line is also hurt by another Shanahan bias, this time in the draft, not to draft offensive linemen early. That bias then plays into another GM mistake, not using what the draft gives you. The best OL class in a decade, and only one pick is used on the line. A big credit to Shanahan that the pick is Dominic Puni, who looks like a great find, but imagine if more linemen from this class were taken given what Puni has shown as a 3rd rounder.

The evaluation weakness also plays out in free agency. Javon Hargrave, an unfortunate injury, but he hasn’t played up to his contract. Leonard Floyd is not a factor yet, De’Vondre Campbell and Isaac Yiadom have both been liabilities.

The Niners find themselves in this 1-2 hole as an accumulation of bad decisions, most of them by Shanahan as head coach and defacto GM.

The Niners have time to recover and regroup, but these are systemic problems. As has been true throughout his tenure Shanahan is both gift and curse. A brilliant play designer and scripter, a very good head coach with a few blind spots that genuinely hurt the team - and an average to poor GM.

Next time, a look at what the Niners need to do to recover, both this season and long-term.