The 49ers Season at Risk: The Problem With Doubling Down on Vets

The first of a series on the big picture problems that have the team in a 1-2 hole

Sep 22, 2024; Inglewood, California, USA; Los Angeles Rams cornerback Tre'Davious White (27) defends San Francisco 49ers wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk (11) on a pass play in the first half at SoFi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images / Jayne Kamin-Oncea-Imagn Images

With Javon Hargrave out for the year, the 49er injuries are increasing and the season is in danger of slipping away. A number of big-picture mistakes are all hitting at once. Three weeks into the season there is certainly time to regroup, but do the solutions exist and will they arrive in time?

The big picture mistakes are formidable obstacles, some are years in the making. This is part one of a series on those mistakes and what can be done about it now.

DOUBLING DOWN ON AGING VETS

Bill Walsh as defacto GM was known for his credo of letting veterans go a year too early rather than a year too late. Sometimes that burned him as Jerry Rice had a long post-Niner career and Joe Montana had solid years in Kansas City.

Most of the time Walsh’s approach succeeded, working the soil of the roster to cultivate fresh new fruit.

Championship football is about achieving balance in a hundred different factors, Walsh’s year too early works the hungry-satisfied axis. This is even more pronounced now in the salary cap era, needing balance between the young player working hard for his first big contract and established vets who lack that hunger. This is clearly out of balance in the current roster.

Kyle Shanahan as defacto GM has chosen to double down on veterans. Presumably this improves the Niners chances of winning a Super Bowl, but it’s also a core philosophy. Shanahan prefers the vet who knows his system over the superior younger talent. The problem with that is demonstrated in Jordan Mason and Jauan Jennings buried on the roster and underutilized for years.

System experience over talent leads to decisions like putting Ronnie Bell in the Rams game over Jacob Cowing. Bell then predictably drops a game-winning catch as Shanahan acts out in frustration after the drop, unaware that fans had the same reaction - when Bell was put in the game.

AP’s Josh Dubow reported that when Shanahan was asked why he did not play Cowing against the Rams, Shanahan indicated Cowing “was not at that level yet” and needed more knowledge in the system and consistent production in practice. Shanahan focused on the vet and his system, when the top of the fan checklist would ask, “can he catch the ball?”

The evaluation process is broken. And Shanahan is stubbornly doubling down on it.

The McCaffrey Extension

Overinvesting in aging vets is best demonstrated by the Christian McCaffrey extension.

McCaffrey is in Germany to evaluate if the “regenokine” process can help him as it once did Kobe Bryant’s arthritic knee. Presumably, McCaffrey is looking at stem cell injections to take down inflammation and accelerate the body’s healing process. The FDA limits that practice in the States, hence the need to go to Europe.

Regenokine worked for Kobe, but it speaks to McCaffrey’s current condition that nothing is working for him, and he’s looking outside the box for answers

Under Walsh, McCaffrey is moved a year too early, under Shanahan he is rewarded with a rich extension. Key vets will ask for the same treatment, as Trent Williams did in his holdout. I believe Fred Warner is elevating his game this year in pursuit of his own McCaffrey extension after this season, and that George Kittle will ask for one at some point as well.

Rewarding vets points to Shanahan’s philosophy, as well as his thinking that this improves his chances for winning a ring. But in so doing, it hurts another balance factor: Injuries.

Double down on vets and the injury risk increases exponentially. Do not play young players due to lack of system knowledge and the depth isn’t developed fully.

Now the injuries are piling up due to so many playoff games in recent years with the same core, and the resulting lack of rest. Vets go down and young players are not ready to step in.

Shanahan’s approach leads to an overdependence on vets, and a need for them to stay healthy. When those vets go down, the season can go off the rails.

On defense, on-field results will force Shanahan’s hand to replace underperforming veterans. De’Vondre Campbell and Isaac Yiadom got the starting nod due to their years in the league, but both must be replaced. Dee Winters and Renardo Green will need to be given a chance now. Both have drawbacks in their games, but it’s clearly time for next man up.

On offense, the talent isn’t there to step in. The dropoff to the backup is too steep at center, right tackle, and tight end. There’s a need to increase team speed and yet 4.3 Jacob Cowing is on the sideline as Ronnie Bell drops a critical pass.

If system experience remains a primary gatekeeper to reps, the team will be slow to react to on-field needs, and that can contribute to losing more games the Niners should win.

The lack of fully developed young talent speaks to another big-picture problem with talent evaluation and undervaluing the draft, a look at that next time.