The Dangers of the 49ers’ Wishing Things Into Being

Unlike Aladdin, these wishes aren’t being granted.

Jul 27, 2022; Santa Clara, CA, USA; San Francisco 49ers head coach Kyle Shanahan (left) and general manager John Lynch watches the players during Training Camp at the SAP Performance Facility near Levi Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports / Stan Szeto-USA TODAY Sports

Aladdin rubbed the magic lamp and got three wishes, the 49ers keep rubbing the lamp and…nothing.

Lots of wishing, no granting.

In business it’s called overoptimism, an unshakeable belief that a planned course of action will lead to the desired result: wishing it into being.

In Santa Clara it’s standard operating procedure for the 49ers. Wishing in the first round of the draft on Solomon Thomas, Reuben Foster, Mike McGlinchey, Javon Kinlaw, Trey Lance, and now Ricky Pearsall, repeating the Kinlaw wish of knowing a player is injured but picking him anyway.

Wishing that the contract negotiation strategy of lowballing early and relying on the deadline of the season opener will lead to team-friendly deals.

Wishing to avoid injury or catch a break with recovery time. Even wishing on challenge flags that have no shot but get thrown regularly.

It’s healthy for management to be optimistic, but it’s a problem to be overconfident, and more importantly not correcting the mistake. The Niners do many things exceptionally well, but overoptimism is a frequent mistake over several years that needs to be addressed.

Putting on my frayed business consultant/MBA hat, let’s take a deeper look.

The Niners apparently thought that Brandon Aiyuk’s stats relative to his contemporaries could be used to get a below market deal. Overoptimism not only leads to some level of wishing, it’s typically accompanied by a blind spot in missing potential negatives, not evaluating all 360 degrees.

With Aiyuk, the blind spot may have been not factoring in that his core concern was respect from the team given better treatment, more targets, and a big contract for Deebo Samuel.

The team needed to offer a market-value deal to show Aiyuk respect, such as what Amon-Ra St. Brown got from Detroit. Offer a similar contract in the wake of that deal, Aiyuk may well have signed. But when you are wishing into being, the focus is to get the below-market deal. Aiyuk has plenty of blame as well, but 49ers overoptimism has played a role in not getting a deal done yet.

With Trent Williams, not anticipating that Christian McCaffrey’s extension would lead to requests for the same deal from Williams, George Kittle and Fred Warner on times of their choosing.

It wasn’t hard to predict, I said that was likely coming out of the McCaffrey deal, and yet John Lynch in Wednesday’s press conference essentially admitted the team was taken aback by Williams’ request.

The common elements of overoptimism include overconfidence in the talents of management: I can do this where others have not. An inaccurate read of the amount of control management has over the situation. An overreliance on the inside view and an underutilization of an outside view, management reinforcing their optimism.

Also, a lack of voices contributing to decisions, not having a trusted contrarian in the room that can point to history, past mistakes, trends, and provide analysis outside of what management is focused upon.

Overoptimism frequently leads to waffling, not making a decision in the optimal moment. Instead, management lets things play out and wishes for the desired outcome to surface, such as John Lynch waiting for his price to be met and never making a Jimmy Garoppolo trade. Overoptimism leads to hesitation, such as not dealing Aiyuk just before the draft even though they didn’t want to pay him market value and the best trade return is in the draft window.

The solutions that are commonly prescribed. First, a recognition that overoptimism exists, and that steps need to be taken to stop it. Second, adding voices to the decision until all 360 degrees of a scenario positive and negative are presented and understood. Third, a willingness to change manifested in a blueprint to implement those changes.

Is that possible with Kyle Shanahan? I’ll just leave it at this, not addressing a years-long mistake is hurting the team. Change is needed.

Overoptimism is reflection of organizational culture. There are four culture types. For the 49ers under Shanahan the culture is a hybrid of two types: hierarchy and clan. Hierarchy is a top-down culture focused on process and structure. Clan for the Niners is a select subgroup of player leaders and the coach, the notorious Cabo Clique.

Teams need employee leadership groups, but management joining the group is an unusual step that leads to a perception of favoritism. Which feeds a situation like Aiyuk’s.

By comparison, the 49ers organizational culture under Bill Walsh was a market culture. A focus on individual accountability and a laser focus on market results.

An adjustment by the current regime to include market culture could help in the final tweaks necessary to win a championship.