The Linked Challenges That Stand In The 49ers Way
A single problem can be cleared like a hurdle, but linked problems can form a wall that has to be scaled. The Niners face several walls heading into this season, some new, some old, that stand between the team and their hopes of making it to the Super Bowl.
A sudden lack of depth, and a schedule with more travel miles and injury risk than last year.
The exhibition games have revealed that the Niners' depth is not up to past standards. The cumulative effect of free-agent departures and high draft picks spent in trades has emptied the cupboard.
The depth that used to be manned by seasoned veterans now falls to rookies and second-year players with inconsistent results.
Combine that with a demanding schedule where the Niners lead the league in having the least amount of rest compared to their opponent over the course of the year. They travel the 2nd most air miles, and flights to out-of-division road games are 75 minutes longer on average than last year. Four trips to the east coast.
It all adds up to put more pressure on injuries and recovery.
Last year the Niners benefitted from a closing schedule where ten of their final eleven games were in the Pacific or Mountain time zone. This year that closing stretch includes three east coast games.
The Niners have been one of the ten most injured teams in the league every year for a decade according to Football Outsiders, who track it. That’s due to location forcing a lot of travel, a physical playing style, and several additional factors. This year that injury risk needs to be managed proactively in rotations where depth does exist at running back, receiver, and linebacker.
If Trent Williams goes down with an extensive injury the season is over. Christian McCaffrey, good luck.
This is a new challenge for Kyle Shanahan, the team has had depth and favorable schedules lately, not this time.
A new defensive coordinator that prefers physical attributes, and a secondary where the best talent lacks size
Steve Wilks is faced with a pick-your-poison dilemma in the secondary. His preference at nickel is a corner with size to help against the run, but Isaiah Oliver has not played well.
Start Oliver and the run is helped but not the pass defense. Ambry Thomas and Samuel Womack are competing at cornerback, but both have given up big plays and Wilks says stopping that is the top priority. Deommodore Lenoir is a great talent, but he lacks size. The hope of developing big corner rookie Darrell Luter Jr. has been lost to injury.
Wilks has drawn a bad hand in Santa Clara. My guess is he'll go with Oliver on running downs and Thomas or Womack outside on passing downs. For now.
If Luter Jr. is redshirted on IR to create roster space, I wonder if the Niners look to be active once more at the trade deadline and shop for a corner with size. Everyone has their shopping list, right tackle and edge get expensive and a run stopper is hard to acquire.
Aging stars and roster holes with no high draft picks to replace them, plus a cap and scheme strategy that forces their hand.
Imagine having a first-round pick in the past draft and needing a tight end to groom behind George Kittle. Four impact players in the first 42 picks. Instead, Cameron Latu the converted linebacker taken at 101 faced a do-or-die game in the 2nd exhibition. Credit to him for coming through, but the gap between 42 and 101 at the position was huge this year.
The Niners liked Oklahoma tackle Wanya Morris, but he was selected a few picks after Ji’Ayir Brown. They passThe Linked Challenges That Stand In The 49ers Way on Dawand Jones as being too big and slow for the scheme but he’s playing well in Cleveland.
The double priority of low-cap investment and scheme fit needs at right tackle led to no picks in the draft and signing a low-cost non-scheme fit in free agency who may be cut. The cap and scheme priorities cut options down and the Niners are left with no NFL-quality depth at tackle.
Solutions are coming, but not until next year’s draft, not coincidentally when the high draft picks finally return.
Pass protection that's vulnerable to the top defensive lines, combined with an inexperienced or slow quarterback.
To me, this is why the Niners haven’t won a Super Bowl championship in the Shanahan Era. The lethal combination of shaky pass protection against the best pass rushers with an inexperienced or limited quarterback. The combination compounds the weakness of each. It ultimately proves to be too much to overcome in the biggest games.
A great quarterback with savvy and athleticism can manage a muddy pocket and make plays. When Jimmy Garoppolo was pressured in the Super Bowl, he went 1-for-9 with two picks. Ballgame.
When Brock Purdy was pressured on nearly half of his dropbacks in the Dallas playoff game, he went 4-for-12. The efficiency that the scheme depends upon stops. Purdy excels with a clean pocket, 15-17 against Dallas.
The offensive line getting beat limits the Niners to 19 points against the Cowboys. The combination of a lack of experience at quarterback to not step up in the pocket, plus a backup tight end quickly beaten by a 2nd Team All-Pro in pass protection, leads to Purdy exiting the game in six plays against the Eagles.
One can argue Dallas and Philadelphia's defensive lines beat everybody, but that's the path to the Super Bowl. So to meet the Quest for Six head-on, the pass protection must be upgraded or the Niners go ringless.
There are no Super Bowl titles until Purdy’s pocket is clean enough long enough or they get a seasoned high-level quarterback that can overcome frequent pressure. The pocket was barely clean enough vs. Dallas, it wasn’t vs. Philly.
Fans, commentators, and analysts want to make it about one thing - the quarterback or the offensive line. But that’s not it. It’s the combination of unstable pass protection against the best lines and an inexperienced, limited quarterback that’s the killer. In my view, that’s why Shanahan keeps coming up short, you cannot have both and win a championship.
Since the combination wasn’t addressed this year, I’m predicting the same result for the same reason. Lethal Weapon, but instead of “I’m too old for this ish” it’s “I keep doing the same ish.”
While the problem is both, the solution is addressing one of the two because then you break the combination. The solution is waiting in next year’s first round.
