Trading Trey Lance: It’s Unlikely But Possible

Putting on my devil’s advocate horns, let’s dive into it.

Bay Area media veteran Larry Krueger has stirred up a social media firestorm with his bold prediction that Trey Lance will be traded before the draft. Krueger has received a lot of pushback, but I give him credit for having the courage of his convictions in laying out how and why a trade could happen.

Krueger begins with statements John Lynch made at the Combine, “We’re fine with Trey Lance right now.” Not exactly a ringing endorsement. Since then, Lynch and Kyle Shanahan have equivocated on Lance and pivoted to, "What we wanted was a quarterback on a rookie deal." That leaves the door open to a Lance trade, implying “meet our price and he’s yours.”

Putting on my devil’s advocate horns, let’s dive into it.

ANSWERING THE OBJECTIONS

The Niners can’t trade Lance before knowing when Brock Purdy will return.

This depends on their evaluation of Lance. They are splitting OTA reps between Lance and Sam Darnold, they’ve named Brock Purdy as “the leader in the clubhouse” to start, it’s possible that they see Lance as QB3 and a movable asset.

There’s also the element of people can’t see beyond their own choices. Fans are known for being risk-averse, the team may not be. That said, the risk of trading Lance is undeniably high, which adds commensurate pressure to the return.

If they deal Lance they start the year with Sam Darnold and a rookie.

Again, driven by evaluation. If they see Darnold as the better option, then in their mind they are switching out Lance as the backup with a rookie QB.

It also needs to be pointed out that the Niners have a recent pattern of stumbling out of the gate. A 3-4 start, a 3-5 start. Kyle Shanahan rolls into the season slowly, he doesn’t play for January in September. So given that, does their record take a hit by starting Darnold? Maybe, but the bar is set around .500.

They gave up a mint for Trey, they’ll take a big loss by trading him now.

That’s inevitable. Those No. 1s are not coming back in trade.

Why trade now? Why not wait until you know what’s happening with Purdy and then trade Lance?

After the draft, the trade market dies. Teams have their quarterbacks. There have only been six post-draft quarterback trades in the last three years, and all of them have been for a fifth-round pick or later. In likelihood, it’s trade Lance by this draft or fast forward to April 2024.

Ok then, why not wait until 2024?

Because Lance’s trade value tanks. It will very likely never be higher than now. Lance sits when Purdy returns and may sit in favor of Darnold. Plus the contract, as of 2024 he’ll be on a relatively cheap rookie contract for only one more year, and will be eligible for an extension. His number of starts will likely be limited and the benefits of his contract will diminish, offers will go down.

The Niners kicked the can on Jimmy Garoppolo knowing he would eventually sign a big contract in free agency returning a third-round comp pick. That won’t be true of Lance, he may only get a 5th. So the return choice is a 3rd now with high risk, or a 5th later. Time also factors in though, as a pick now likely helps the 2023 season.

Is a 3rd round pick worth all this risk? They’ve missed on 3rd round picks annually.

Keep in mind that the 49ers picks in this draft are 3rd round comp picks, meaning they’re really 4ths. If they could make a Lance trade and get a pick in the 60s or 70s that’s essentially a round of picks higher than where they are now at No. 99. It’s a significant jump.

In addition, they could jump from that pick to climb higher up the draft and pursue an impact player. The fan hope of trading up for one of the six Day 1 starting tackles at least becomes a possibility. The risk of whiffing on the pick is there, but they’re already taking bigger risks. Trading Trey Lance is the Niners betting on themselves.

Could they get higher than a 3rd?

Maybe, depends on the trade partner and the total trade package. I would argue no given that Lance has two years left on his rookie contract, is paid as the No. 3 pick, and only has four NFL starts with a limited career resume. Another factor is this draft has a talent cliff around No. 50, teams with picks above that will be reluctant to give them up.

What about the cap hit?

Capologist Jason Hurley of 49erscap.com says the Niners would lose 1.55 million in cap room if they traded Lance before June 1st. He notes that the Niners can restructure Christian McCaffrey’s contract to create around 8.5 million in cap room. Since the trade is before June 1st there’s no dead cap hit going forward. 

What about a possible rule change to allow three active quarterbacks on game day?

The NFL Competition Committee tabled this to May. The idea reportedly has “a lot of support.” However, the debate in Arizona focused on where the 3rd quarterback can come from, is it the roster or the practice squad? The latter would seem more likely, and if that’s the case, a team’s 3rd quarterback will be a late draft pick or UDFA player, not Trey Lance or Sam Darnold.

Doing right by Trey

Krueger gives this as another factor in trading Lance. The Niners know he needs to play right now, and that they prefer Purdy. The best thing to do for Lance is to deal him and give him the opportunity he won’t get with the Niners. Lynch and Shanahan always speak to the quality of Lance’s character, they may be motivated to give Lance a chance with a new club that will put him on the field and views him as a potential starter.

As with any choice, this is risk vs. reward. The fan focus is on risk, the team focus could be on reward. The now-or-never component of a Lance trade hasn’t been discussed but should be, his value only goes down from here and it’s deal before the draft for a 3rd or wait it out and get a 5th. If the Niners believe the risk of trading Lance far outweighs the return, they pass. If they think the pick is high enough to make a tangible difference in their Super Bowl hopes for 2023 and going forward, trading Lance is possible.