Trey Lance is Ready to Be the 49ers Starter

Trey Lance showed out on Sunday. He should start moving forward.

It took three months longer than it should have, but the Trey Lance Era in Santa Clara has finally begun. 

After whetting fans’ appetite for what he could do in a narrow road defeat to the Arizona Cardinals, Lance was back as the starting quarterback for the 49ers on Sunday and, although the Niners offense fell short out of the gate, Lance came roaring back at the end of the first half and carried that momentum into the second half, fending off a pesky Houston pass defense in a 23-7 victory over the Texans at Levi’s Stadium. 

But news broke today that Jimmy Garoppolo is set to throw this week in practice and may be ready to roll on Sunday against the Rams. Will Garoppolo start?

He shouldn’t. 

Here’s why.

Trey Lance Era Has Begun, Three Months Too Late.

After trading up to the No. 3 pick in the NFL Draft in late March, 49ers fans everywhere rejoiced as the front office clearly signaled their commitment to upgrade at quarterback with a rookie and send Garoppolo packing. Or so people thought. Despite inspiring a resurgent excitement in the team’s future in December of 2017, Garoppolo’s play plateaued and the luster that inspired an uptick of season ticket sales and seat licenses gradually showed itself to be pyrite.

With one magical Super Bowl run sandwiched between two injury-ridden seasons, Garoppolo proved to be a competently average NFL quarterback with no traits that warranted a second franchise quarterback contract from the 49ers. So the 49ers swapped first round picks with the Dolphins and shipped off two future first round picks and a third round pick for the rights to jump the Atlanta Falcons and draft Lance over Justin Fields, with Lance always being the apple of Kyle Shanahan’s eye.

However, Lance’s draft status and tantalizing profile as an athlete, passer, leader and offensive weapon took a back seat to the front office’s “plan” to run it back with Garoppolo. Was it to appease the locker room? Was it to pump up Garoppolo’s value in an attempt to trade him in the offseason after they were unsuccessful in their attempt to do so during draft season? Or was it because they genuinely felt Garoppolo gave them the best opportunity to win? Answers to those questions have proven hard to come by but, after Lance’s performance on Sunday, one thing became very clear: Lance should have started since Week 1 in Detroit.

Although Lance and the offense got off to a slow start, he started the game by showing glimpses of his ability to change the game with his legs by a rush for six yards to close out the first drive, a play on first down on the second drive where he kept his eyes down field while evading two rushers and made something out of nothing on a short pass and then broke off another QB keeper for a first down. To close out the first quarter, Lance continued to display his propensity to keep his eyes downfield, and gave Brandon Aiyuk a chance to separate while buying time with his legs to gain 12 yards on a crucial second and nine. And after a huge run by Deebo Samuel, Lance was back at it by extending the play outside the pocket, passing up the short checkdown to George Kittle and throwing a dart off his backfoot to Trent Sherfield for another 12 yard gain and a first down.

Despite that, Lance also showed his rust, which was compounded by Shanahan’s seeming reluctance to “get in his bag” and allow Lance to play quarterback. Drives stalled on fourth down, and Lance absorbed some monster hits from Texans defenders on designed runs. And with 9 minutes to go in the first half, Lance fired a dart toward George Kittle, didn’t recognize the underneath defender trailing and threw a drive-killing interception. To make matters worse, Deebo Samuel was running Scot free down the right sideline on a leak play that has become all too common a refrain for 49ers during the Garoppolo years.

But Lance responded at the end of the first half, showing his penchant for shaking off mistakes and moving forward by orchestrating a 38-second drive drill culminating in a Robbie Gould field goal that brought the score to 7-3 in favor of the Texans. During the drive, Lance worked exclusively out of shotgun, took some chances downfield, and almost connected with Aiyuk in the end zone on what would’ve been a spectacular touchdown.

Second Half, Second Chance to Shine

The second half was Lance’s time to shine. Although the first drive fizzled on fourth down, it was punctuated by a big-time throw to Aiyuk as Lance threaded the needle on a rope and Aiyuk gained 43 yards on a huge YAC gainer. On the next drive, Lance took to the air again, throwing deep and drawing a crucial defensive pass interference penalty, moving the 49ers into the red zone. After several tough runs by Elijah Mitchell, Lance made a smart checkdown to JaMycal Hasty while evading pressure, which led to an easy toss to Mitchell for a touchdown on a brilliant play design by Shanahan that had Texans’ linebackers crashing toward the run threat.

But Lance saved his best for last. In the Niners’ first drive of the fourth quarter, Lance needed four plays and two minutes to go 65 yards, culminating in a beautiful pass across his body to Samuel for 45 yards and a touchdown that put the 49ers ahead 17-7. These were the types of throws Lance got drafted for, and he was feeling it. And just before that, Lance showed incredible anticipation by hitting Jennings before he was uncovered for a big first down on third and three. Although Jennings bailed out Lance’s low ball placement, the decision making and anticipation were incredible.

On the 49ers’ last long drive of the game, Lance showed the world his greatest pass of the game on 3rd and 12, planting his foot in the pocket, recognizing Kittle down the middle and throwing an absolute 29-yard laser to Kittle, who made a one-handed grab after he was interfered with. If not for the contact by the defender, the ball would’ve been in stride, and Kittle very well may have ran it into the end zone. Later on in the drive, Lance had what would’ve been his first touchdown run of the game called back on a questionable holding penalty on Aiyuk, and the 49ers kicked a field goal.

Garoppolo’s Thumb, and Who Should Start Going Forward

The 49ers came out with what amounted to a dominant win over the Texans, and Lance had fans at Levi’s Stadium on their feet for most of the second half. So why is Garoppolo allegedly being considered to start this Sunday against the Rams? When asked by Jennifer Lee Chan of NBC Sports Bay Area about Garoppolo starting, Shanahan said this:

“If Jimmy is 100 percent healthy and can do everything perfectly, then I’m going to definitely go with Jimmy. I think it’s going to be hard for Jimmy to be 100 percent which is how most people are this time of year.” 

This, of course, can be interpreted in multiple ways. I view it as “coach speak,” and I fully expect Lance to be starting in what probably will be a “must-win” game against the Rams in Los Angeles this Sunday.

First, the severity of Garoppolo’s thumb injury is confusing, but I don’t know how much it is weighing on Shanahan’s thought process right now. If Garoppolo’s UCL in his throwing hand is torn, which it seems to be, then it requires surgery. When asked by All49ers editor Grant Cohn how it felt today, Garoppolo responded with a chuckle:

“It f****** hurts. I don’t know how else to describe it. It feels like the web in your hand is kind of tearing a little bit. Yeah, that’s probably the best way I can describe it. But it’s all good.”

I’ll take Garoppolo at his word, and this doesn’t seem to bode well when this injury, according to NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport, “can essentially prevent a quarterback from gripping a football. Throwing can be painful and difficult.” He also confirmed that this injury cannot heal on its own and will require surgery. Regardless of whether or not Garoppolo feels he can gut it out, I think Shanahan has seen enough. He was visibly frustrated once again after Garoppolo’s performance in Nashville against the Titans. And then you have the odd timing with all of this injury news following John Lynch trying to cover up the fact that he liked a tweet musing that the 49ers should have “left Jimmy in Nashville."

Despite Lynch’s effort to dismiss it as being bored with his family at church on Christmas Eve while doom scrolling Twitter, Garoppolo and Don Yee probably weren’t impressed. It was literally adding insult to injury, and Garoppolo, after being the lame duck all year, has probably had enough. But so has Shanahan. Regardless of how Garoppolo is feeling, starting him on Sunday would be foolish. Not only because he’s injured and can’t hold a football correctly, but because Lance is the better player and option for Shanahan’s offense.

Lance’s performance on Sunday confirmed for Shanahan why he drafted Lance in the first place. It wasn’t that Lance just performed well and bounced back with a vengeance in the second half. It was that his performance mirrored the traits and strengths that Shanahan became so enamored with while Lance was at North Dakota State. While writing for 49ers Goldmine during draft season, I had Lance ranked as 1B to Justin Fields as 1A as 49ers options to draft a quarterback, and that was before they made the big trade with the Dolphins. Most people agreed that Lance had the highest ceiling of any quarterback in the draft, but I argued his floor was higher than most as well. Here was my scouting report for Lance when I had the 49ers selecting him in a trade up in early March:

“Trey thrives as a pocket passer, but uses his athleticism when he needs to. He also takes shots downfield while only generating a turnover worthy play on 1.7% his throws. During his freshman season, his average depth of target was a whopping 11.5 yards. Accurate underneath and still willing to push the downfield while staying calm under pressure, it’s easy to forget that Lance also has the biggest gun in this draft. He effortlessly is able to flick the ball 70 yards at will, while showing elite ball placement. I would be ecstatic if the 49ers had the mettle to move up for who I believe is the unicorn of the draft. Some may feel it’s prudent to secure a veteran backup. However, I think Lance has the composure, intelligence, work ethic and pedigree to step in day one as a starter for the 49ers, and have the Niners confidently competing for a playoff spot in the hotly contested NFC West.”

The 49ers did end up selecting Lance, and on Sunday Lance confirmed everything I saw in my scouting profile. He doesn’t run first, like some think. He consistently kept his eyes downfield and went through his progressions. His penchant to hold the ball a a tick long is a byproduct of his ability to evade pressure and trust his abilities to make big time throws which he did multiple times against the Texans within and outside of structure. His 11.5 yards average depth of target at NDSU? Guess what? He uncannily averaged 11.5 air yards per completion on Sunday and 12 yards in average depth of target.

Although he made mistakes, he showed consistent composure and resilience, shaking them off and responding with confidence. Whether they were crossers, deep balls across his body or throws off his back foot, Lance consistently kept his eyes downfield and looked for big time throw opportunities that kept the 49ers in the fray in a game that wasn’t as close as it appeared. These are the traits that Shanahan fell in love with, and these are the traits that Lance manifested on the field on Sunday.

So why has Garoppolo been starting all year? Was it the locker room? Was it pump and dump? Was it because he gave them the best chance to win? I’m not sure, but I do know that it was a mistake. I do know that Lance’s performance on Sunday showed who he was in college, who he is now and who he can tantalizingly become in the future. And I believe Shanahan knows the right thing to do would be to start Lance not only on this Sunday, but for every game in the playoffs if they make them, regardless of Garoppolo’s injury. It’s time to rip the Band-Aid off, and move on.

The Trey Lance Era is here. The question is, will Shanahan let it continue?