Trey Lance Needs to Start Sooner Rather Than Later

Lance needs football experience as early as possible. He has started one season in college and one in high school.

The 49ers have an open quarterback competition. But it doesn’t mean that they can completely oust their starter and anoint Trey Lance. 

Not yet, at least.

Jimmy Garoppolo is clearly well respected by the locker room and, as Kyle Shanahan noted earlier this offseason, he would be ‘very surprised’ if Garoppolo didn’t start Week 1.

Kyle Shanahan said that Trey Lance won't be taking any first team reps just yet.

"Jimmy's played too good of football and is too good of a player. Trey's trying to learn everything and soak it all in, so that's why I'd be very surprised if he was able to do that." pic.twitter.com/xFcyGCntcc

— KNBR (@KNBR) August 2, 2021

Even if you don’t believe part of Shanahan’s comments when he says he won’t get any first team reps (because he reverted back on this four days later), the truth from Shanahan appears to be that Trey could start but he has to exceed expectations.

Given Garoppolo’s status with the team and his experience, it's difficult to hand the reigns over to the rookie right away.

So should Garoppolo start the entire season for San Francisco? 

No. 

In fact, it would be unprecedented to not play and start Trey Lance.

Just want to put this out there again (per Ben Meyerson stats & info):

🔘 Since 2011, 13 QBs were selected in the top-3. All played their rookie season - only 4 didn’t start Week 1.

🔘 The 4 who did not start: Goff, Bortles, Mayfield, Trubisky

🔘 All but 1 played 12+ games

— Benjamin Meyerson (@ByBenMeyerson) August 12, 2021

Will Lance start Week 1 vs Detroit? Likely not right now. But over the course of the 49ers season, it would be a mistake to bubble wrap him.

Given the success of rookie quarterbacks early in their career, sitting them is minimizing how much they can maximize their potential in Year 1.

Yes there will be growing pains with Lance, but in the long run getting him experience in the NFL as early as possible is paramount to maximizing the rookie contract.

Currently the 49ers have the second-highest paid quarterback room in the league between Garoppolo and Lance. They are dedicating 17.5 percent of their cap to that position (per OTC). That is an unsustainable way to contend for a deep playoff or Super Bowl run.

In 2019, when the 49ers did contend, they were spending 8.9 percent of the salary cap on Garoppolo. Even then the team did not win the Super Bowl.

Over the next four seasons, Lance will be on the books for: 3.2% (’21), 3.7% (’22), 4.1% (’23) and 4.2% (’24). With just Lance and Sudfeld on the roster they would combine for 3.6% of the cap which would rank 28th in the NFL.

Lance needs football experience as early as possible. He has started one season in college and one in high school.

Per College Football Reference

With only 318 attempts at the D 1-AA college level, Lance needs to get more playing time. Quarterbacks get better with more attempts and in-game experience.

Did it benefit Justin Herbert, Bake Mayfield, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson to sit? In hindsight, their respective teams should have started them sooner rather than later.

Delaying the inevitable only hurts the long-term outlook of your franchise. If the 49ers want to contend again it will be with Lance (and no other quarterback) with all they have invested in him.

Will Lance actually get the nod Week 1? It’s not likely, but he should.