Upcoming 49ers Decisions In Navigating the Cap

When the Philadelphia Eagles faced a similar transition to make room for Jalen Hurts’ extension, they lost seven starters.

Managing the salary cap while trying to keep a title-contending roster intact is a difficult balancing act for a top-heavy 49ers team loaded with All-Pros and Pro Bowlers. The challenge for Kyle Shanahan and John Lynch is to maintain contention while managing a transition from the league’s 4th oldest team to a younger and cheaper roster.

Brock Purdy is the best bargain in sports through next season, then the clock strikes midnight. Purdy will be eligible for an extension beginning in the 2025 season when his contract is projected by overthecap.com to go from one million per year to over $36 million.

When the Philadelphia Eagles faced a similar transition to make room for Jalen Hurts’ extension, they lost seven starters.

General Manager Howie Roseman said the change was stark. Players he normally would have re-signed for extensions became free agents and the team entered contract negotiations with a restricted budget.

The 49ers have yet to shift to letting impact starters go in free agency rather than extending them, but that may need to change as of this off-season.

Brandon Aiyuk and Chase Young

Aiyuk is central to the offense and given his chemistry with Purdy it would not make sense to let him go. In theory, Aiyuk can be dealt for a first-rounder and then the 49ers can draft his replacement, great talent is readily available in the draft.

The NFL has had mixed results with that though. Minnesota swapped out Stefon Diggs for Justin Jefferson, but Kansas City replaced Tyreek Hill with Rashee Rice.

Young is a tougher call with a projected market value of $13.6 million per year. The defensive line proved their dominance with a 61.5% pressure rate against Philadelphia. The Niners front office is proven somewhat ineffective at drafting pass rushers, adding to the argument to keep Young.

Despite their spotty DL draft history, if the Niners let Young and Randy Gregory go, a first-rounder is more likely to be spent at edge. The clear team need though is to invest in long-overdue high draft picks on the right side of the offensive line.

Cap guru Jason Hurley of 49erscap.com says that both Young and Aiyuk can be re-signed without having to move Deebo Samuel. However, that would require Aiyuk and Young to accept long-term backloaded deals of up to five years with incentives. The 49ers would also need to restructure deals to make it work, starting with Samuel.

Hurley expects the Niners to carry up to $37 million in cap room into 2024, plus another $4-6 million in potential unmet incentives. He says restructuring Samuel, Arik Armstead, Dre Greenlaw, and Charvarius Ward can save another $43 million if executed before the new league year in mid-July.

Brock Purdy

The good news is that the current salary cap of $224.8 million is forecast to grow quickly. Overthecap optimistically projects a $31 million jump to a $256 million cap in 2024 and $282 million in 2025. The bad news is the Niners will still have to part with players they’d want to keep.

Potential cap casualties this off-season will likely begin with backups like Jauan Jennings Ray-Ray McCloud, Sam Darnold, and possibly Javon Kinlaw.

It’s also possible the Niners may win a title and players could retire after this year or next. Trent Willams is 35, Kyle Juszczyk 32, Javon Hargrave is 31 soon, Arik Armstead and George Kittle are 30. However, with advances in diet and workout regimens players can extend their careers and may well want to keep playing for rings at their peak earnings.

For the first time in the Shanahan and Lynch regime, they may have to be the bad guys and cut highly productive but expensive veterans to clear cap space to extend Purdy. Some players carry big dead cap hits, but if they are cut post-June it’s lessened.

Decisions will be difficult, keep the proven vet or dip into the draft for a cheap young replacement. Young, Talanoa Hufanga, Juszczyk, Armstead, Hargrave. Something and someone will have to give, Purdy’s contract goes up by at least 35 million a year. His contract can be backloaded with a huge bonus but as Philadelphia proved in extending Hurts, there is no pain-free path.

Draft Reveals

Hints at the long-term plan could come in the draft. An unexpected early pick may indicate a cap casualty move, such as wide receiver, free safety, or a pass-rushing defensive tackle. The expected path is edge if Young walks, right tackle, right guard, and defensive back. Any deviation from that in the early picks could indicate a future cap move.

The salary cap potentially going up by $57 million in two years will help significantly. The Niners will have more room to work with than the Eagles did with Hurts, but Shanahan and Lynch will still have to be strategic and precise. They’ll have to make unpopular but necessary moves. 

There will be blood.