Week 17: Best and Worst Case Scenarios

A win and the 49ers have a 94 percent chance to make the playoffs while that percentage drops to 55 percent with a loss.

The 49ers are set to take on a surprisingly resilient Houston Texans squad to close out their season at Levi’s Stadium. The hot topic this week has been the possibility of seeing rookie Trey Lance get his second start of the season, but the real story is the gravity of this pivotal matchup for the 49ers playoff chances. A win and the 49ers have a 94 percent chance to make the playoffs while that percentage drops to 55 percent with a loss. 

Let’s delve into the possible scenarios for this weekend's game.

Best Case Scenario: Lance is given the opportunity to actually play quarterback, Kyle Shanahan calls a balanced game and the 49ers rout the Texans.

It’s hard to imagine that Lance is still a complete unknown at this point in the season but here we are. The 49ers offense when executed is the perfect recipe for success against the Texans. The 49ers will need to lean on a running game that is getting healthier as the season progresses, Elijah Mitchell still has an outside chance to make his return and Jeff Wilson Jr. appears to be getting stronger with every game. The key will be to protect Lance and coach Shanahan’s game plan will do just that by mixing in play action passes for easy completions to get the ball to the playmakers on the outside. Deebo Samuel and George Kittle should be targeted in the passing game early and often.

The 49ers defense can only lose this game if they completely implode in the secondary. The Texans lack weapons on the outside to exploit the 49ers secondary and their offensive line will struggle to protect Davis Mills in this game. Expect the 49ers defense to have a relatively short day and spend most of their time on the bench. Fred Warner will have a vintage performance this week and the 49ers will completely neutralize the Texans offense.

Worst Case Scenario: Lance will look like a rookie making his second start and will play poorly. The Texans will see multiple short fields and Davis Mills will play efficient football that takes advantage of the 49ers offensive woes.

The last time we saw Lance in a game he was missing easy throws, wasn’t trusted to run the Shanahan offense and couldn’t convert consistently on third or fourth down. The Texans have been an opportunistic bunch -- they are eighth in turnovers forced this season. Lance has been inaccurate when playing but has turned the ball over just once so it's up in the air how he’ll perform against a defense that is good at forcing turnovers. The 49ers offensive line will be key in this matchup but if the 49ers are forced to pass it could end up being a disaster for Lance in his second start.

The Texans offense has been inconsistent but it is coming off its best performances of the year. Davis Mills has been a true Rumpelstiltskin as a rookie making gold out of straw with the group of castaways that makeup the Texans offense. The Texans really don’t have any consistent performers on the offense besides Mills and the difference between their team with and without Mills has been stark. This spells bad news for the 49ers as when that’s the case, it usually means the team has found something at quarterback with their ability to make average players perform at a higher level. Time will tell if Mills has “it” but the 49ers weak cornerbacks should definitely give the rookie confidence.

Chuy’s Prediction: The 49ers will pull out a close victory thanks to a dominant defensive performance and a mistake-free game from Lance. This will likely secure a playoff berth.

All eyes will be on Lance but the game plan should be centered away from him. In his only start of the season, Lance accounted for more than 80 percent of the offensive output which is way too much to ask a rookie to bear. Shanahan has undoubtedly figured out that the team must run the ball this season to be successful -- this not only protects their quarterbacks, but it also protects his defense. Look for rookie running back Elijah Mitchell (if he's active) and Jeff Wilson Jr. to have big games. Lance will be utilized running the football on the goalline, I could see him ending up with two goalline rushing touchdowns.

The defense will be given a pass this week as the game plan will be to control the time of possession. As long as they don’t completely fall flat, it should be a stress-free day to close out the season in Santa Clara.

Lance’s ability to convert third downs will be a major factor in getting the win. If he can do that then there is absolutely no reason for him to sit against the Rams next week.

Final Score Prediction: 49ers 24 - Texans 20