What Chance Does 49ers QB Brock Purdy Have Winning MVP in 2024?

Brock Purdy was a finalist for the MVP award in 2023, which makes sense why DraftKings sportsbook has him as a fairly high favorite to win it in 2024.

Jan 28, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) holds the George Halas Trophy while after winning the NFC Championship football game against the Detroit Lions at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports / Kelley L Cox-USA TODAY Sports

Brock Purdy came up short when it came to winning the NFL MVP award in 2023.

While it was a bummer he couldn't win it, the fact that he was a finalist at all was nothing short of stellar. No one could've predicted that for him last season in his first year as a full time starter for the San Francisco 49ers coming off elbow surgery.

It makes you wonder what he can do in 2024 now that he has an offseason where he can actually work on himself instead of rehabbing. That is why DraftKings sportsbook has Purdy as a fairly high favorite to win the award next season.

As it stands, Purdy is tied with Lamar Jackson and Jordan Love for the fourth-best odds (+1400) to win the MVP award in 2024. Ahead of him are Patrick Mahomes (+450), Josh Allen (+850), C.J. Stroud (+850) and Joe Burrow (+900). So, what chance does Purdy have at winning MCP in 2024?

He may have the fourth-best odds, which is a great compliment, but I don't see Purdy coming close to winning the award. That doesn't mean I believe he won't have a sweet season in 2024, but the reality is that 2023 was a down year for quarterback performances. Purdy's numbers weren't THAT spectacular.

They were impressive because no quarterback has done that under Kyle Shanahan with the 49ers, or any quarterback for the 49ers in a long time. Plus, winning in the way the 49ers were doing made him an attractive candidate for the award. Purdy is deserving to be mentioned to the award, but I give him no more than a 10 percent chance of winning it.

Even if he does look amazing, better than 2023, then there will still be the narrative of him having an all-star crew around him, which can deflate his push for the award. The fact that Christian McCaffrey was an MVP finalist in 2023 along with Purdy only fuels that narrative.

Either way, all that matters is if Purdy can build upon the season he had last year and improve upon it. The MVP is just a side quest that indicates that he really is taking the next step.