What the Over/Under for Receptions is for George Kittle in 2023

He didn't really pop off with catches last season, but much of that had to do with him becoming the scoring specialist for Brock Purdy.

George Kittle became an elite scoring specialist for the 49ers in 2022.

Much of that had to do with the switch from Jimmy Garoppolo to Brock Purdy. For whatever reason, Purdy was able to always find Kittle in the optimal scoring positions more than Garoppolo. 

However, despite being a touchdown machine for the 49ers, Kittle's numbers in receptions took a hit. 60 receptions is what he reeled in last season, which is his lowest since 2020 when he only played eight games. He wasn't generating the immense catches that has been accustomed with him, which is why DraftKings sportsbook has set the over/under at 57.5 receptions for Kittle this upcoming season. 

So, will Kittle have over or under 57.5 receptions in 2023?

Without hesitation, it's the over. There is no way Kittle is hitting that under. He's only ever been under 57.5 receptions twice in his career. The first time was when he tallied 43 catches as a rookie with only seven starts. He wasn't even the fulltime starter for that season and hadn't emerged as a great player yet. The second time he went under was in 2020 with 48 catches, but only played in eight games. Injuries capped his stats for that year, as it did for so many other 49ers players, which explains why he went under 57.5.

The two examples of Kittle hitting the under were never under normal conditions. When health wasn't too heavy of a factor after his rookie season, Kittle has gone over 57.5 catches every season. Taking the over for 2023 is one of the easiest player prop bets on the 49ers to take. The only reason why Kittle's over/under is set at 57.5 is because he totaled 60 catches last year. He didn't really pop off with catches last season, but much of that had to do with him becoming the scoring specialist for Brock Purdy.

A rapport was certainly built between Purdy and Kittle that should carry over to this season. This is why I think that despite all the great receiving talent in the offense that Kittle can still put up some sweet numbers when it's all said and done. He and Purdy already have the scoring threat on par with each other, which means there is great trust. Purdy could start to lean on Kittle more in passing game on top of what Kyle Shanahan is dialing up in the play designs. I see no reason why Kittle won't exceed last year's total in receptions in 2023.