What the Over/Under for QB Sacks is for Nick Bosa in 2023

Will the reigning Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa go over or under this many quarterback sacks in 2023?

It was never a question on IF Nick Bosa would win a Defensive Player of the Year award, but WHEN. 

That much was always clear during his rookie year when he was a complete monster for the 49ers. Every season, excluding 2020 due to injury, he has elevated himself and become a walking nightmare for opposing lineman and quarterbacks. 2022 was a peak year for him when he led the league in sacks with an astounding 18.5 to easily win his first, and likely not last, Defensive Player of the Year award. 

While winning the award yearly isn't a lock for him, accumulating double digit sacks is. That is why DraftKings sportsbook has set the over/under for quarterback sacks for Bosa in 2023 at 15.5. This past season is the first time that Bosa has ever exceeded 15.5. Prior to that, he had 15.5 sacks in 2021, then 9 in 2019. Bosa has set the bar extremely high, so getting over 15.5 is kind of expected of him.

So, will Bosa have over or under 15.5 sacks in 2023?

I would take the under. Bosa is definitely capable of going over that set number, but the defensive line overall has strengthened for the 49ers. They're more top heavy with the addition of Javon Hargrave, a healthy Arik Armstead, and an expected breakout year from Drake Jackson. I see Bosa getting to 14 or 15 sacks in 2023, so he'll be just a smidge off. 

Of course, the same could be said that with all of that talent, Bosa should be able to get over 15.5 easier now with help. But I think offenses will rather take their chances with any other lineman that the 49ers have than Bosa, so they will do their utmost to slow him down and not let him take over. 

There is also the expected uptick in blitzes from the 49ers defense with Steve Wilks taking over as defensive coordinator. That is one of his staples when calling a defense, so some sacks could swing towards others because of that and take the pressure off of Bosa.

Which side of the over/under would you take?