Why Christian McCaffrey Will Have Massive Success on the Ground vs. Jaguars
Christian McCaffrey has been ineffective on the ground in the 49ers' last four games.
In that span, he is garnering 3.3 yards per carry and hasn't come close to a 100 yard performance. Much is contributing to his average outings. Part of it is the offensive line failing to open up running lanes consistently, while another part is the 49ers are finding themselves in a deficit. Those factors will always play a role in why McCaffrey cannot find daylight on the ground.
However, there are a couple of factors that have improved recently that will allow McCaffrey to have massive success running the ball versus the Jaguars. The first factor is that he is rested. In the 49ers' first four games, McCaffrey was being run into the ground. He was being so heavily utilized that there was a theory that Kyle Shanahan was trying hard to get McCaffrey to be the 2023 NFL MVP.
I suspect that having his number called so many times in those games has taken its toll. The wear and tear on running backs is always a rough one. Now that he is coming off the Bye week, McCaffrey should look explosive again and feel refreshed. And hopefully Shanahan starts to lean on the other running backs as well to preserve McCaffrey. Otherwise, he runs the risk of McCaffrey being ineffective again like in the last four games.
The second factor for McCaffrey finding success against the Jaguars is the return of Deebo Samuel. Much of why the running game is successful for the 49ers is because of the motions they incorporate. When defenses stack the box with eight or nine players, Shanahan uses the motion with Samuel to get one of them to follow him. Since Samuel has been gone, no one is falling for it. Considering it was Ray-Ray McCloud doing the motions in Samuel's absence, I wouldn't fall for it either.
Samuel's return should make for lighter boxes for McCaffrey as well as perfectly timed running lanes. Plus, Samuel is a threat in the backfield too, so should the 49ers dial it back to 2021, then it will only add a different dynamic that should make McCaffrey's life easier. With all that said, the Jaguars have one of the best run defenses in the league. They only allow 79.3 yards per game, which is fourth-best. However, the 49ers faced one of the worst run defenses in their last game against the Bengals and found zero success.
I think facing the Jaguars will be a nice "get right" game for McCaffrey on the ground now that he is rested and gets Samuel back to open things up. He goes for over 100 rushing yards in Jacksonville for the first time since the 49ers faced the Cardinals in Week 3.
