Why the 49ers can Afford to Whiff on Trey Lance

Trey Lance not turning into a franchise quarterback for the 49ers isn’t that consequential.

Brock Purdy is set to be the starting quarterback of the 49ers in 2023.

At least, that is what will happen if there is little to no drop-off from his performance last season after he is recovered from UCL surgery. Until then, the 49ers are having Trey Lance compete with Sam Darnold for the starting, and eventually backup, job at quarterback. 

Much has changed for Lance in the span of a year. He was the unquestioned starting quarterback that the 49ers were going to invest in going into 2022. Now he finds himself fighting for a backup spot. The 49ers traded so much to draft Lance two years ago. Lance not being able to be the franchise quarterback of the 49ers for years to come would be embarrassing. But at the same time, it’s not. If Lance does end up being a whiff, which it looks more likely than not that he is going to be, then the 49ers are still in a firm top position in the NFC.

Lance not panning out isn’t detrimental to the 49ers’ success. They have been winning games and going deep into the playoffs without him and the picks they used to get him. Now, Brock Purdy does make it easier to stomach considering he gives the 49ers a fantastic fallback. At the very least, Purdy is another holdover at quarterback for the 49ers until they find someone. That someone could be Kirk Cousins, but that’s a conversation for another time.

Lance failing is disappointing on all accounts. The 49ers failed him more than he failed them. Their evaluation of him was definitely not on point. It would’ve been interesting to see what would’ve happened if Lance received the adequate reps and support, then perhaps the 49ers could have had something special. That won’t be clear until the Niners move on from Lance. Should he look really good elsewhere, then it will look extremely bad on the 49ers end, but that’s a huge if and will take much time for it to be clear. 

Most franchises when they give up a haul of first-round picks like the 49ers did would end up being set back, especially because it is a quarterback that didn't work out. But the 49ers have been able to circumvent that with the vast array of talent throughout the team and with elite coaching on both sides of the ball. It also helps that the quarterbacks who have played since Lance was drafted gives the 49ers sufficient output to allow them to win. 

There is always the chance that Lance can end up doing something incredible and take the job this year. It would definitely be well earned given the uphill climb he has. I just wouldn't hold my breath on it since not much is in his favor.