Why Quarterback Committees could become the NFL's Next Trend

Big-money franchise quarterbacks could become dinosaurs.

The 49ers might trade Jimmy Garoppolo after next season, but not because of his play. They might trade him because of his contract.

Garoppolo is a good quarterback. When the 49ers signed him to an extension in 2018, they paid him the going rate for good quarterbacks. And that rate has become outrageously high. NFL teams overpay good quarterbacks. There’s a quarterback financial bubble in the league, and it could burst soon.

Teams believe they have to have a good quarterback to win the Super Bowl. And there aren’t many above-average quarterbacks in the NFL. So teams pay above-average quarterbacks more than they should.

In 2020, three quarterbacks will earn at least 14 percent of their teams’ salary cap -- Russell Wilson, Jared Goff and Dak Prescott. Keep in mind, no quarterback ever has won a Super Bowl while earning 14 percent of his team’s cap. Steve Young won a Super Bowl in 1994 while making 13.1 percent of the 49ers’ cap -- the highest percentage ever for a Championship quarterback.

So there’s zero evidence that overpaying good quarterbacks is smart.

And yet, in 2021, at least nine quarterbacks will make more than 14 percent of their teams’ cap -- Ben Roethlisberger, Matt Ryan, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Carson Wentz, Matt Stafford, Kirk Cousins, Wilson and Goff. And Ryan Freaking Tannehill will earn 13.7 percent of the Titans’ cap. And we’re not counting Patrick Mahomes or Dak Prescott, both of whom could sign mega-huge extensions by next year.

Which brings us back to Garoppolo. He isn’t absurdly expensive, but he’s borderline. Last season, he earned just 8.6 percent of the 49ers’ cap, which was reasonable. But in 2020, he’ll earn 12.9 percent of the cap -- a big jump. This explains why the 49ers couldn’t keep DeForest Buckner or Emmanuel Sanders. And in 2021, Garoppolo will earn 12.5 percent of the 49ers’ cap. Only Young has won a Super Bowl with a higher cap percentage.

Now Garoppolo needs to play even better just to offset the losses of Buckner and Sanders. But what if Garoppolo can’t raise his game? What if he continues to play well in 2020, but the 49ers’s record is 9-7 and they miss the playoffs? How can they reload and improve while Garoppolo takes up more than 12 percent of their salary cap?

The easiest way would be to trade him and free up $24.1 million in cap space, and use that money on other positions, like cornerback, wide receiver and tight end.

Then, the 49ers could replace Garoppolo with Nick Mullens, who’s cheap and average -- maybe better than average. He posted above-average numbers on a bad team as a rookie in 2018. And he could split time with a running quarterback the 49ers would draft next year. He could be their Tayson Hill -- the Saints Wildcat quarterback, who mostly runs but also passes sometimes.

Neither Mullens nor the rookie running quarterback would be as good as Garoppolo, but together they would give the 49ers’ above-average production from the quarterback position while earning almost nothing. And they would create a more diverse offense that would be more difficult to prepare for.

We know the Wildcat works in the NFL -- the Ravens proved that the past two seasons with Lamar Jackson. Ten years ago, the Wildcat was a gimmick because teams used running backs as Wildcats. Now, the NCAA provides a near endless supply of athletic Wildcat quarterbacks who can run and throw. So the Wildcat is not a gimmick anymore. It’s an entire offense that every team should incorporate into its existing schemes.

Meaning the quarterback committee could become the next trend in the NFL. The Patriots might use one this year with Jarrett Stidham and Cam Newton. And the Saints use one already with Drew Brees and Taysom Hill. When Brees retires, Hill probably will get even more playing time, but likely won’t ever become the full-time franchise quarterback -- he’s not a good enough passer. He probably will join a platoon with a pocket passer -- maybe Jameis Winston.

Big-money franchise quarterbacks could become dinosaurs, the way big-money bell-cow running backs did.

Garoippolo still could have a terrific career. But he might not stay with the 49ers long term or earn as much money as he expects.

Not his fault. This is business.