Why The 49ers Fall Short: Stat Dive on Defense

The Niners concerns entering 2023 are the edge production opposite Bosa, the impact of Hargrave, replacing Azeez Al-Shaair and what the secondary can achieve under the guidance of new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks and the success rate of his blitzing strategy.

The 49ers had one of the league’s top defenses in 2022, elite in total yards, points against and takeaways. Yet with that, the team felt the need to make a big investment in free agency in signing defensive tackle Javon Hargrave. A dive into the stats can reveal why they made that move.

PASS RUSH
Nick Bosa was dominant and won Defensive Player of the Year, but he didn’t have as much help as he did in 2019. Team sacks dropped from 5th to tied for 10th. Pressure rate per dropback ranked 11th at 22.9%. Quarterback hurry per dropback tied for 24th at 5.9%. All of that culminated in this critical stat, giving up 3rd down conversions 39% of the time, 16th in the league. The defense didn’t get off the field on 3rd often enough.

Javon Hargrave was brought in to fix that. Pro Football Focus graded his pass rush 3rd among defensive tackles at 91.1 behind the two All-Pros in Chris Jones and Dexter Lawrence. Hargrave is graded 2nd over the last two years behind Aaron Donald. PFF ranked the 49ers interior defense line 30th last year. Adding Hargrave and a healthy Arik Armstead should change that in 2023.

Hargrave was essential to the Philadelphia defensive line that accumulated 70 sacks. He had 11 sacks and ranked 19th in the league in total pressures. The Eagles were stacked with talent across the line, having a 2nd Team All-Pro in Haason Reddick outside him also set up Hargrave. The Niners are looking to Drake Jackson to fill that role and he’ll be a key factor in Hargrave’s production.

BLITZING

DeMeco Ryans was conservative with blitzing as the Niners ranked 20th in the league in blitz percentage per dropback. New defensive coordinator Steve Wilks plans to dial it up more often and from nearly every defender. Given the speed and tackling ability of the defense, blitzing more often is playing to a strength provided the secondary can cover it.

This will help the defense get off the field on 3rd down more often but needs to be balanced with giving up big plays. The Niners were 27th on air yards per completion and Wilks says preventing big plays will be a point of emphasis.

PENALTIES

If you thought the Niners gave up too many penalties on defense last year, your instinct is correct. The penalty stat rankings can be counter-intuitive, the rankings are for the highest number of penalties and yards. 19th in the league in defensive penalties, meaning they had the 14th-highest number of penalties. That translated into 25th in penalty yards against. Too many free yards. This contributes to the poor ranking in 3rd down conversions.

RED ZONE

The Niners led the league in fewest red zone touchdowns against. However, once a team got into the red zone the Niners had trouble stopping them. Teams scored touchdowns 56.8% of the time in the red zone against the 49ers, 20th in the league.

SUBTLE STRENGTHS
While the Niners fall short in some areas, a few subtle strengths are worth mentioning in the stat dive.

Charvarius Ward leads the league in Next Gen Stats tight window target rate, where the defender is within a yard of the receiver when the ball arrives. Since Ward entered the league in 2018 he has had the highest tight window rate at 36.7%. Jaire Alexander is 2nd at 33.3%, and only five players including Ward are above 30%.

Fred Warner has contributed to the Niners facing the least number of targets in the middle third of the field from 10 to 19 yards since 2018. Just 134 targets for 166 fewer yards than any other defense and the lowest completion rate at 56.6%. Warner’s pass coverage hit a low in 2021 but rebounded well in 2022.

The Niners concerns entering 2023 are the edge production opposite Bosa, the impact of Hargrave, replacing Azeez Al-Shaair and what the secondary can achieve under the guidance of new defensive coordinator Steve Wilks and the success rate of his blitzing strategy.

What has to improve: 3rd down conversions against at 16th, blitz percentage per dropback 20th, penalty yards 25th, and air yards per completion at 27th. Addressing those weaknesses on defense can help put the Niners in the NFC Championship Game for what would be the third straight year.