Why The 49ers Fall Short: Stat Dive on Offense

A statistical analysis of why the San Francisco 49ers offense falls short in critical moments.

Since 2019, the 49ers have had one of the most talented teams in the NFL, yet they can’t take the final steps to a championship. A deep dive into the numbers may help explain the gaps that need to be closed.

PASS PROTECTION
ESPN Analytics, with data from NFL Next Gen Stats, placed the Niners offensive line 20th in pass block win rate last year at 59 percent in the regular season. Trent Williams was not in the individual top 10. Two Niners linemen made the top ten on run block win rate: Jake Brendel and Mike McGlinchey both ranked fifth at their positions.

The gap to a title was demonstrated by the line play in the NFC Championship. Philadelphia’s offensive line, the league’s best: four pressures, no quarterback hits, no sacks. The 49ers line gave up 18 pressures, seven hits injuring both quarterbacks, and three sacks.

Pro Football Focus dropped the Niners offensive line from Top 10 last year to 18th going into this year, noting, “If it wasn’t for Trent Williams, this would be a concerning group on paper.”

You get what you pay for. The Niners are 17th in offensive line spending by cap dollars per Spotrac. Remove Trent Williams and the remaining four starters would be the cheapest group in the league.

So what does 17th buy you? 20th in pass protection regular season and one of the worst in the playoffs in pressures given up. If the Niners hope to get a ring, they’ll have to close the massive gap in line play with Philadelphia.

QUARTERBACK
For quarterbacks with at least five starts, Brock Purdy was 2nd in the regular season in expected completion percentage at 69.0 per Next Gen Stats. The stat factors air distance, target separation from the defender, nearest pass rusher, distance to the sideline, and passer speed if on the run, among others.

In the Seattle wild card game, 69 percent expected completion percentage dropped to 60.5, and Purdy dropped from 2nd to 10th out of 12. Against Dallas 61.4, 7th out of eight. Several factors why, a rookie in the playoffs, tailored defensive schemes, and an overmatched offensive line.

An 8 percent drop in expected completion percentage in the playoffs is significant, and why citing the regular season stats can be misleading. This is about a ring, the playoffs are the essential context.

Purdy will improve in confidence and experience this year, but the big leap probably has to wait another year when he hopefully has a healthy offseason to put in the development work.

RUNNING GAME
Once the Niners added Christian McCaffrey, the running game was one of the league’s best, and that meant facing a lot of 8-man fronts. CMC faced eight defenders in the box at the 7th highest rate in the league, 34.8 percent. For comparison, 10th was 29.5 percent, 20th was under 22 percent. The point being 35 percent is exceptionally high.

Ideally, a team looking to dictate with their running game needs a quarterback that takes the defense out of eight in the box by throwing deep and wide. If Kyle Shanahan wants to sign Kirk Cousins next year, this could be one of his arguments why. Shanahan will need to test Purdy downfield more often this year to see what he has.

The Niners running game is left-handed, to leverage Trent Williams. Against Seattle, CMC had 12 carries for 99 yards going left and three carries for 20 yards going right. Against Dallas, the Niners did not have success in either direction with McCaffrey running ten times for 35 yards. Elijah Mitchell was the team’s leading rusher with 14 carries for 51 yards.

In the regular season, McCaffrey ran left 86 times for 434 yards, averaging just over five yards a carry. Going right 74 times for 311 yards, an average of 4.2. So the question is if they run left more often and with more success, why is run blocking the top priority for the right side of the line?

RECEIVERS
The best set of offensive weapons in the league by consensus. ESPN just ranked them No. 1 in the league. McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle and Kyle Juszczyk. The challenge is to optimize them.

The draft has added three more receivers, led by the two tight ends. Shanahan adds new chess pieces in Cam Latu and Brayden Willis, they’ll be used to upgrade the blocking while also getting a few targets. Willis adds versatility and the pair of them give the Niners the possibility of creating two tight end sets.