Why the 49ers Should Think Twice About Drafting a QB in Round 1

If the 49ers draft a quarterback with the third pick, they won't necessarily get a good one, or one who lives up to expectations.

Grant Cohn | Apr 3, 2021

The 49ers have to draft a quarterback with the No. 3 pick. That's what people keep telling me.

You can't trade three first-round picks plus a third for anything other than a quarterback, they say. And they have a good point. Quarterback is by far the most important position. It's hard to justify trading all those assets for a tight end.

But if the 49ers draft a quarterback with the third pick, they won't necessarily get a good one, or one who lives up to expectations. The past 20 years, roughly 7 out of every 10 quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 failed to live up to expectations. Which means the 49ers have roughly a 3 in 10 chance to get their franchise quarterback.

See for yourself:

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS SINCE 2001 WHO LIVED UP TO EXPECTATIONS

1. Mike Vick

2. Carson Palmer

3. Eli Manning

4. Philip Rivers.

5. Ben Roethlisberger

6. Aaron Rodgers

7. Matt Ryan

8. Matthew Stafford

9. Cam Newton

10. Andrew Luck

11. Ryan Tannehill

12. Patrick Mahomes

13. Deshaun Watson

14. Josh Allen

15. Lamar Jackson

16. Kyler Murray

17. Justin Herbert

FIRST-ROUND QUARTERBACKS SINCE 2001 WHO DID NOT OR HAVE NOT YET LIVED UP TO EXPECTATIONS

1. David Carr

2. Joey Harrington

3. Patrick Ramsey

4. Byron Leftwich

5. Kyle Boller

6. Rex Grossman

7. J.P. Lossman

8. Alex Smith

9. Jason Campbell

10. Vince Young

11. Matt Leinart

12. Jay Cutler

13. JaMarcus Russell

14. Brady Quinn

15. Joe Flacco

16. Mark Sanchez

17. Josh Freeman

18. Sam Bradford

19. Tim Tebow

20. Jake Locker

21. Blaine Gabbert

22. Christian Ponder

23. Robert Griffin III

24. Brandon Weeden

25. E.J. Manuel

26. Blake Bortles

27. Johnny Manziel

28. Teddy Bridgewater

29. Jameis Winston

30. Marcus Mariota

31. Jared Goff

32. Carson Wentz

33. Paxton Lynch

34. Mitchell Trubisky

35. Baker Mayfield

36. Sam Darnold

37. Josh Rosen

38. Daniel Jones

39. Dwayne Haskins

40. Tua Tagovailoa

The Niners need to think twice about spending the No. 3 pick on a quarterback, because the guy they take most likely will let them down. And the tight end they pass up, Kyle PItts, is the best tight-end prospect of all time and most likely will be better than George Kittle.

The Niners have some thinking to do.

Published Apr 3, 2021

GRANT COHN

Grant Cohn has covered the San Francisco 49ers daily since 2011. He spent the first nine years of his career with the Santa Rosa Press Democrat where he wrote the Inside the 49ers blog and covered famous coaches and athletes such as Jim Harbaugh, Colin Kaepernick and Patrick Willis. In 2012, Inside the 49ers won Sports Blog of the Year from the Peninsula Press Club. In 2020, Cohn joined FanNation and began writing All49ers. In addition, he created a YouTube channel which has become the go-to place on YouTube to consume 49ers content. Cohn's channel typically generates roughly 3.5 million viewers per month, while the 49ers' official YouTube channel generates roughly 1.5 million viewers per month. Cohn live streams almost every day and posts videos hourly during the football season. Cohn is committed to asking the questions that 49ers fans want answered, and providing the most honest and interactive coverage in the country. His loyalty is to the reader and the viewer, not the team or any player or coach. Cohn is a new-age multimedia journalist with an old-school mentality, because his father is Lowell Cohn, the legendary sports columnist for the San Francisco Chronicle from 1979 to 1993. The two have a live podcast every Tuesday. Grant Cohn grew up in Oakland and studied English Literature at UCLA from 2006 to 2010. He currently lives in Oakland with his wife.