Why the 49ers Will Beat the Cowboys in the Wild Card Round
The moment is nearly here.
49ers versus Cowboys. You could not think of a more attractive matchup in terms talent, history, and the popularity of these two franchises.
It’s a tale of two stories when it comes to these teams regarding how they reached the playoffs. The 49ers looked out of it early, but climbed out of the depths with a fiery second half surge. The Cowboys pretty much had a cakewalk to their playoff berth as the NFC East hosts putrid teams.
In fact, that is exactly why the Cowboys are in the playoffs in the first place. They play in an abysmal division. Both Washington and the Giants are jokes. They’re laughable franchises, and as for the Eagles, they’re fraud playoff contenders. Of the 12 wins the Cowboys tallied this season, six of them came via the division. They’re 6-5 against teams outside the division, which is revealing.
This is why the 49ers will beat the Cowboys to advance to the divisional round.
Dallas is not THAT impressive of a team. When they’re not facing average or lowly opponents, they become exposed. Against the NFC East they have a plus-22.2 point differential, whereas they have a plus-3.6 differential against everyone else. They struggle when they have to face teams they aren’t familiar with and aren’t as weak. Facing the 49ers is going to be like cold water hitting the body for the Cowboys.
Ultimately, the Cowboys are going to lose because they’re a finesse team.
The 49ers always own these teams and force them to submit. Dallas is a passing team. They ride and die off the performance of Dak Prescott. The days of Ezekiel Elliott’s dominance is over. San Francisco will make quick work of him and then force Prescott into a panic most of the day. Defensively they can handle the Cowboys. It does not matter if they have Amari Cooper and CeeDee Lamb. The 49ers, even with their “questionable” cornerbacks, can slow them down.
Offensively, the 49ers will make them tap out with the run game. This is where the Cowboys will have that feeling of cold water hit them. Since Week 8 (excluding Week 18) eight of those 10 games they faced teams that were 21st or worse in rushing. The only two times they faced a rushing team higher than that resulted in a loss to Denver and Kansas City (h/t Javier Vega of 4th and Gold Podcast).
So long as Jimmy Garoppolo takes care of the football, the 49ers should win this game without too much stress. Much like with the Titans game, the 49ers just have to show up and not shoot themselves in the foot. It looked like they would run away with it in Tennessee until Garoppolo started having wreckless turnovers. The 49ers true opponent on Sunday is themselves. Self-inflicted wounds is the greatest weakness of theirs.
If they can be forceful early and bring that aggression that is true to them, the Cowboys will be done before the game is even finished.
