Will Deebo Samuel Have Over or Under 7.5 Receiving Touchdowns?

Six touchdowns is what Deebo Samuel tallied in 2021. Will he exceed that in 2022 for the 49ers?

It is unclear when the 49ers and Deebo Samuel will agree to a contract extension.

What is clear is that Samuel will play in 2022 and be a productive player. Replicating what he did last season will be tough for him to do. He’s now set a standard for himself that he’ll find difficult to uphold. 

Still, Samuel is an electrifying player who will be a force to be reckoned with even if he’s solely or mostly used as a wide receiver. Samuel essentially reached 1,000 receiving yards around midseason and finished with a nice six touchdown tally. Samuel will look to increase that this season. 

DraftKings sportsbook has set the over/under at 7.5 receiving touchdowns for Samuel. Whether or not he has an extension, Samuel will look to earn/validate his money. He’s never put up more than six touchdowns before. Then again, he’s never had a quarterback who can sling it more than 10 yards, so Samuel can be utilized in ways that he hasn’t been as a wideout.

Will Samuel have over or under 7.5 receiving touchdowns in 2022?

I’m going with the over. If the 49ers end up using Samuel exclusively at wide receiver or even just reducing his running back usage, he’ll still find a way into the endzone. Let’s say Trey Lance can’t connect with Samuel on over 10 yard plays for whatever reason. The 49ers have always managed to get the ball in his hands through the air quickly and still have him do damage to set up a touchdown. 

Even Lance should be able to execute that if he’s struggling. A simple screen or flip pass play to him is enough to get the job done as it can replicate his running back usage without lining up in the backfield. The Chiefs have done that with their offense by getting receivers in motion and just having Patrick Mahomes flip it to them in scoring situations. Or the 49ers can always do what they did with Jimmy Garoppolo and just sling it to Samuel as soon as the ball is snapped.

To put an exact number on it, I’d say Samuel gets nine touchdowns this year. Taking the over isn’t that much of a struggle to come to grips with here. Star players will find their way into the endzone. Samuel just needs the ball in his hands by any means through the air and that’s sufficient to give him the opportunity to score.

Would you take the over or under on this?