Will the 49ers Go Into Purdatory?

The next few years will be defined by the decisions made this off-season.

Dec 12, 2024; Santa Clara, California, USA; San Francisco 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy (13) throws a pass against the Los Angeles Rams in the second quarter at Levi's Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images / Cary Edmondson-Imagn Images

With the loss to the Rams, the 49ers season ended several weeks earlier than hoped. That suggests a review of the leadership of the team, but the Yorks are not expected to make any changes.

The Athletic’s Dianna Russini reports that the organization trusts Kyle Shanahan and, “fully believes in his ability to lead the team forward.” She also notes that the team is “firmly committed” to Brock Purdy and plans to sign him to a multi-year extension this off-season.

Can the organization extend Purdy at market value, keep Shanahan as the holy trinity of the team (offensive coordinator, head coach, and defacto GM with personnel control), and win a Super Bowl?

In my opinion, no. I think the Niners would enter no man’s land, what I’m calling Purdatory. Good enough to be in the playoff mix but ringless.

On Purdy. Given his struggles with the deep ball against the Rams I doubt he’s fully healthy. Adding arm strength is a must, but is he topped out? After leaving Iowa State, Purdy tweaked his mechanics to produce extra velocity, primarily through more hip torque. If he has any velocity magic left, he’ll need to find it in the off-season.

The rain. This can’t be swept under the tarp. Seattle, Green Bay, Philadelphia, and Washington have wet outdoor venues. Add Santa Clara in the winter.

My greatest concern is Purdy not learning from his mistakes. The pick against the Rams mirrors an early season interception. The pattern of panicking when pursued and throwing the ball into coverage for an interception needs to be broken.

Purdy has to learn the value of throwing the ball away. Jimmy Garoppolo refused to do it, in my opinion to protect his stats. I don’t accuse Purdy of that, I think he’s just placing too much trust in himself and his teammates. Far better to throw it away than give it away.

Purdy has been at his best playing with peak Christian McCaffrey. Purdy is .500 in his last 18 games without peak CMC. The realistic expectation is Purdy can lead the 49ers to the playoffs, but he’s not good enough to carry a lesser team to a ring after he’s been paid. Purdy isn’t the problem but he’s also not the answer. His physical ceiling has to be factored in, along with the inherent injury risk of his smaller frame.

Critics oppose extending Purdy and ask for another season to evaluate him. The Yorks have been consistent in wanting to take care of Purdy this off-season. I think their reasoning is clear but never brought up, they see Purdy as the face of the franchise going forward.

George Kittle is 31, McCaffrey is 29, it’s time. Purdy comes out of central casting, he’s young, and has a great story. The organization knows Purdy has been the best bargain in sports, they’ll take care of him.

How much, to be determined. A team-friendly deal is in the eye of the beholder. To fans it’s the cap hit and the average annual value (AAV) of the contract. Only. My guess is the AAV will come in around $50 million per give or take a few million. The Yorks have a different definition of team friendly, and it’s not what Purdy’s agent got for Trevor Lawrence, $200 million guaranteed with $143 million upfront.

Whatever Purdy gets will need to be subtracted from the roster within 2-3 seasons when his full salary hits the cap. Can the 49ers still contend? Purdy’s 9-9 record without peak CMC would argue no.

Purdatory isn’t just about Brock, it’s also about Shanahan being given absolute power. He should have been stripped of personnel control after the Trey Lance trade failed. Instead, the Yorks continue to rely on the two-headed GM of Shanahan and John Lynch, where accountability can be evaded, and blueprint problems go unaddressed.

Can the 49ers evade Purdatory?

In my opinion, yes. It requires courage from the Yorks though. I’m not talking about firing Shanahan as coach or offensive coordinator. I fire Shanahan the defacto GM.

The best way to help Purdy is a serious upgrade for the offensive line. Shanahan’s blueprint goes against that, he scrimps on the OL to the right of Trent Williams to save on the cap. He then compounds that by not using high draft picks on the OL consistently.

As Shanahan says he values players that touch the ball or rush the passer, and his drafts reflect that, an overinvestment in weapons and defensive linemen, an underinvestment in OL.  Alex Gibbs the father of the wide zone emphasizes the scheme just needs dogs, not long-armed first round tackles. Shanahan takes that to heart.

Defenders can point to Dominick Puni, critics can point to the lack of OL picks, one first rounder and two second rounders in eight years. Keep Shanahan as defacto GM and that likely continues.

Both Super Bowl losses to Kansas City were aided by mismatches on the right side of the line with Chris Jones as the tip of the spear. Garoppolo 1-9 against pressure with a pick. Purdy struggling against nine unblocked pass rushers on blitzes.

So why Purdatory? In part this. Shanahan’s offensive line blueprint won’t optimize Purdy. The investment will be made in Purdy but not backed up. Just as Shanahan drafted two receivers and barely plays them, the lack of strategic coherence is a serious problem on this team.

The Niners have to let go of Deebo Samuel and Kyle Juszczyk, can Shanahan do it? I have my doubts. Hiring an outside GM would be a way of saving Shanahan from himself.

I would hire Ray Agnew, Detroit’s Assistant General Manager, learning from the last four years under the league’s best talent evaluator Brad Holmes. The 49ers need better talent evaluation and they need to nail this upcoming draft with higher picks than the norm. They’re failed often at defensive line and that’s where the first two rounds may land.

Will the Yorks replace Shanahan as GM, I seriously doubt it.

Next time: The 49ers rebuild in free agency.

Download and follow The Cohn Zohn Podcast.