Will the 49ers Ground (and Pound) the Falcons?

Normally, I would say that the 49ers playing the Falcons in Atlanta is the definition of a trap game, but this week is looking pretty far from normal.

A trap game is when a heavily favored team loses to a weaker team, due to focusing too much of their attention on a top team (such as the Chiefs), that they are set to play the following week. Overlooking any NFL team can be a deadly trap. This happened to the 49ers when they lost to a much weaker Falcons squad in 2019, just before a divisional showdown with the Rams, that had big time playoff seeding implications.

Normally, I would say that the 49ers playing the Falcons in Atlanta is the definition of a trap game, but this week is looking pretty far from normal. 

All world left tackle Trent Williams is out and so is his very solid backup Colton McKivitz. No. 1 running back Elijah Mitchell won't play either. Same with No. 2 cornerback Emmanuel Moseley, who won't be back this season. No. 3 linebacker Azeez Al Shaair won't suit up. Starting free safety Jimmie Ward will miss at least a couple weeks. No. 1 defensive tackle Arik Armstead is almost sure to miss the game.  And no. 2 defensive tackle Javon Kinlaw has showed no signs of playing.

Then we have the question marks. All-world defensive end Nick Bosa injured his groin in Carolina and hasn't practiced as of Wednesday. Rising star defensive end Samson Ebukam has a sore Achilles. Year 2 left guard phenom Aaron Banks even has a knee issue that popped up. And kicker Robbie Gould has a knee contusion, which might be the biggest one of all. 

The 49ers are extremely deep, but it's difficult to imagine a team that is this banged up taking any NFL opponent lightly. I know that I certainly won't be. They have the No. 3-ranked offensive line for pass block win rate, plus phenom tight end Kyle Pitts and rookie sensation wide receiver Drake London. They are the No. 3 team in rushing yards and No. 2 in rushing Defensive Value Over Average. Star running back Cordarrelle Patterson is out, but that won't stop them from running the ball well. Quarterback Marcus Mariota probably can't beat the 49ers with his arm, but he is very mobile, which tends to neutralize the 49ers pass rush. The Falcons defense has Grady Jarrett - a top defensive tackle and AJ Terrell - a top cornerback. 

The Falcons special teams are No. 7 in DVOA, while the 49ers special teams are No. 29 and that was with Gould mostly healthy. This looks to be a huge disadvantage.

The 49ers defense is ranked No. 1, but all these injuries are bound to slow them down eventually. Will this be the week?

Jimmy Garoppolo has been playing well, but is it just due to facing very banged up secondary players?

The 49ers should be able to run the ball well against the Falcons defense. This may be the key to victory.

Falcons' rushing defense ranks:
* Yards Per Carry: 19th
* DVOA: 27th
* Adjusted Line Yards: 28th
* EPA/Play: 30th
* Success Rate: 31st

Jeff Wilson Jr. and Tevin Coleman on deck for good performances on Sunday.

— Akash Anavarathan (@akashanav) October 12, 2022

Running back Tyrion Davis-Price was back at practice Wednesday, but I doubt that he will get much play. Tight end Tyler Kroft was limited. His return would be very welcome, as the 49ers only dual-threat tight end, other than George Kittle. Safety Tarvarius Moore was limited, but his punt coverage sure hasn't been.

The 49ers are favored by 5.5 points, but I think this game could be closer than that. As always, I will reply to this article with my official score prediction, about an hour before kickoff, once we know who will play and who won't.