Why It Promises to Be a Long Hot Summer in Bears Backfield

Analysis: Of all the positions with possible battles, running back looks like the most heated one as Khalil Herbert's past shows he can play at or better than D'Andre Swift's level.

Only injury last year kept Khalil Herbert from being at a higher level than D'Andre Swift at running back. / Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports

Training camps are extended in the modern NFL.

They run all the way back into OTAs. The players who show out better in OTA practices and in the meetings are going to set themselves up for a better starting point in training camp and ultimately preseason.

For the Bears this season, OTAs will be especially important because of the short time between the end of offseason work and start of camp. They'll be going to training camp almost two weeks earlier because of the extra preseason game.

So competing will begin when the full team basically hits the practice field in OTAs in two weeks for what is supposed to be non-mandatory work.

It appears to be a little more mandatory for this team with the highly competitive status of many starting and roster spots.

RB vs. RB

When free agency began, the Bears signed former Lions and Eagles running back D'Andre Swift. It looked like they brought in a probable replacement starter for Kahlil Herbert, who enters a contract year.

Nothing said so far suggests Herbert is keeping his starting job.

"So the weapons at running back with Swift and on the outside with Keenan (Allen), you know, (Gerald) Everett at tight end, you know, paired with DJ (Moore) and Cole (Kmet) are going to be tough to cover and it's going to be exciting to watch in how we put those guys together," coach Matt Eberflus said earlier in the offseason.

There are about 24 million reasons why they would favor Herbert. The $8 million a year is not chump change for running backs in this market.  They paid Swift more than they were willing to pay David Montgomery in 2022 free agency.

However, it's not so clear cut who the better back is. In fact, this position figures to be the best starting battle for the Bears.

Assumptions the best battle would be center are giving far too much credit to Ryan Bates because he's only snapped the ball 200 times. His experience is more as a guard.

In the case of the battle between Swift and Herbert, the analytics numbers say it's close to a dead heat and could actually favor Herbert.

Pro Football Focus grades take a back seat to overall yardage produced for playmakers, like backs and receivers. However, there are some critical numbers that yards gained and rushing attempts don't address.

Herbert's overall running back grades have been better than Swift's, according to Pro Football Focus.

Swift has had only one year out of four with a grade over 69.4 by PFF, and that came in his big third season with Detroit when he had an 78.1 grade, slightly better than Herbert's 72.1 for the Bears as a backup to David Montgomery that year. However, Herbert had a 77.1 running grade that year, so he was right in step with Swift.

Last year, Herbert had a better season by grade than Swift, although it was shorter due to injuries. Swift was at 66.5 and was ranked 45th out of all backs. Herbert was 14th overall among backs.

In terms of ranking overall grade compared to other backs, PFF has Herbert 15th overall in 2021, 35th in 2022 and 14th last year. Swift was 39th, 59th, 19th in his best year of 2022 and 45th last year.

The two players have comparable abilities through three years at breaking or eluding tackles, Herbert averaging 26.7 missed tackles forced and Swift 25.2. However, Swift's colossal 43 missed tackles in his fourth year pushed him close to Herbert's average. Herbert is going into his fourth year.

The only area where Swift is decisively better than Herbert over the course of his career, according to PFF's analytics, is in receiving. Even here, there is some doubt based on last year.

Last year Herbert improved his receiving game to earn a 67.5 grade, 20th best among all backs. Swift was 47th with a 53.5 grade as a receiver. Herbert's receiving grade in Philadelphia was worse even than that of former Bears back D'Onta Foreman, who was regarded as a detriment in the receiving game. Foreman was 42nd with a 58.3 grade.

There is another aspect of the passing game affected by running backs. This is pass blocking. The perception is Swift is strong but Herbert struggles. Again, it's not really true according to PFF.

While Herbert hasn't been great, Swift has not been outstanding by any measure. Just like with his overall game, Swift put up a career year in 2022 with a 73.9 PFF pass blocking grade. However, his other three pass blocking grades were 48.9 last year for the Eagles, 44.9 as a rookie with the Lions and an abysmal 28.2 in his second Lions season.

Herbert, meanwhile, has been steady, though not outstanding, as a pass blocker. He was at 53.3 last year, 54.4 in 2022 and 61.5 as a rookie.

It's definitely a case where Herbert only needs better health to be considered seriously for starting running back. He missed nine games the last two seasons. Even here, Swift hasn't been the picture of health. He has missed 12 games in four years.

None of this takes into account what Roschon Johnson can bring to the battle. He was a better blocker (64.8) than Swift in any of his seasons except in 2022. And he was also 7.2 points higher (60.7) than Swift as a receiver last year, according to PFF grade.

It's going to be an interesting backfield battle. And because of the schedule this year, it will be a long battle.

Twitter: BearDigest@BearsOnMaven