Bear Digest

A Reason for Bears Fans to Have Hope Despite Dismal Collapse

Around the NFC North: There is always hope in the NFL and the number of times teams go from last to first the next year is a good reason.

Gene Chamberlain

Aaron Rodgers loses the football when sacked by Akiem Hicks in 2018, the last season the Bears went from worst to first.
Aaron Rodgers loses the football when sacked by Akiem Hicks in 2018, the last season the Bears went from worst to first. / Appleton Post-Crescent-USA TODAY NETWORK
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Tis the season of hope, even for Bears fans.

A last-place finish for the seventh time in 11 years and third straight since former coach Matt Nagy's firing might paint a bleak picture. OK, it's more like a stain than a picture.

But it doesn't mean the Bears are destined to remain terrible in the NFC North after the coaching change.

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Teams go from worst to first in the NFL. It's fairly common.

Since the beginning of the 2000s, there have been 31 teams go from worst to first. In fact, the Bears did it themselves in three of the four division titles they've had during that period. The only time they didn't do it when they won the division was 2010, when they went from third in 2009 to the NFC North title and then the NFC championship game.

This is typical of their real problem and that is a lack of sustained success. They're a one-trick pony, going from the bottom to first and then rapidly fading out.

Only Lovie Smith seemed to sustain any success when he won three division titles in six years. Then Phil Emery had him fired, as George McCaskey signed off on it after a 10-6 season in 2012. They've had a record better than that once since then.

It's less common for teams with new coaching staffs to make the run to a division title after finishing last the previous year under a different coach, but it has happened 11 times. Matt Nagy's first team in 2018 did it.

Teams going from worst to first happens less now, as only four teams have done it since 2020 but from 2000-2009 there were 16 teams that did it.

At least the Bears can take heart in knowing this: If any team in the NFC North is going to do it, they're the team to do it.

In fact, since 2000 they are the only NFC North team to go from last to first.

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Week 16 On SI NFC North Rankings

  1. TIE Lions, Vikings, 3. Packers, 4. BEARS

Minnesota Vikings

Joe Nelson, Minnesota Vikings On SI

This week: At Seattle (3:05 p.m. Sunday)

Impact player this week: I could say Sam Darnold, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, Blake Cashman, Stephon Gilmore, Jonathan Greenard or a number of other impact Vikings stars, but I got a feeling the biggest impact player this week will be rookie kicker Will "The Thrill" Reichard. The analytics indicate this will be a close game and it could lead to Reichard needing to make a kick in a pressure moment for the first time in his NFL career. Is he up to the task of doing the job when it matters most and helping the Vikings overcome a kicker curse?

Keys to victory: Handling crowd noise at Lumen Field is typically a big deal, but the Seahawks are 3-5 at home this season and the "12th Man" in Seattle doesn't appear to be what it used to be. It's unusually quiet to the point that DK Metcalf this week basically called out Seahawks fans, saying he wishes "as many 12s didn't sell as many tickets as they did." If the Vikings can build an early lead, Seahawks fans might not have the energy to rally the players.

Green Bay Packers

Bill Huber, Green Bay Packers On SI

This week: Home vs. New Orleans (7:20 p.m. Monday)

Impact player this week: Josh Jacobs. Jacobs has been the heartbeat of Green Bay’s offense all season. In a dominating win at Seattle on Sunday, the Packers started the game with a 10-play touchdown drive. Jacobs got the ball on the first eight plays and scored the touchdown on the 10th. Talk about setting the tone. Jacobs is third in the NFL in rushing while the Saints are 30th with 4.94 yards allowed per carry. That unit played well in last week’s near-upset of the Commanders, but this should still be a matchup that tips heavily in Green Bay’s direction.

Keys to victory: Pressuring the quarterback. Last week, the Packers knocked out Geno Smith in the third quarter and dominated his backup, Sam Howell. Howell led the NFL in passing attempts last season, so it’s not as if the Packers feasted on some no-name rookie. In 12 under-pressure dropbacks, Howell was 2-of-7 passing for 17 yards. With 21 yards on four sacks, the Seahawks averaged minus-0.24 yards. With Derek Carr likely sidelined by a broken hand, rookie Spencer Rattler is expected to make his fourth start. His under-pressure passer rating, according to PFF, is 51.7.

Detroit Lions

John Maakaron, Detroit Lions On SI

This week: At Bears (noon Sunday)

Impact player this week: DE Za’Darius Smith. The Detroit Lions’ defense lost multiple key players to injury in last week’s loss to Buffalo, including defensive tackle Alim McNeill and cornerback Carlton Davis. With a secondary that will be missing its top cornerback, the pass rush will face more responsibility to put heat on Caleb Williams to make life easier for Terrion Arnold and others. Detroit would benefit greatly if Smith and the rest of the defensive line could replicate their performance from the first time against Chicago.

Keys to victory: The Lions need a fast start. They put themselves in an early 14-0 hole against the Bills as the offense punted on its first two drives. Though the Lions were able to make the game a shootout, their slow start put them at a deficit that they couldn’t overcome. As a result, a faster start will allow them to take the pressure off a battered defense.

Chicago Bears

Gene Chamberlain, Chicago Bears On SI

This week: home vs. Lions (noon Sunday)

Impact player this week: RB D'Andre Swift. Last week Swift decided to lower his shoulder and run through some tackles, especially in the second half of the game. The Bears haven't been able to score in the first half of the last three games and the reason is their anemic running attack and poor pass blocking. Swift's 79 yards rushing last week showed he can get the job done if he gets blocks. Because of the Lions' depleted state of health on defense, look for the Bears to hit them with Swift so they can buy Caleb Williams time to throw.

Keys to victory: Amping up the pass rush on Jared Goff rates No. 1. He's already well known as a QB who doesn't usually play well in the cold. His passer rating for 12 career games with temperatures in the 30s, based on NFL statistics, is 75.53. This is almost 20 points lower than his career passer rating.  The Bears must blitz and put on pressure like they did against Minnesota before that game got out of hand. They need to be prepared to gamble on both sides of the ball because they're incapable of stopping Detroit's offense over an extended period, like they did at Soldier Field in last year's 28-13 win.

Worst to First

Division winners who finished last in the division the previous season

2000-20023


2000 Saints 3-13 to 10-6*

2001 Bears 5-11 to 13-3

2001 Patriots 5-11 to 11-5

2003 Panthers 7-9 to 11-5

2003 Chiefs 8-8 to 13-3

2004 Falcons 5-1 to 11-5*

2004 Chargers 4-12 to 12-4

2005 Bears 5-11 to 11-5

2005 Buccaneers 5-11 to 11-5

2005 Giants 6-10 to 11-5

2006 Ravens 6-10 to 13-3

2006 Saints 3-13 to 10-6*

2006 Eagles 6-10 to 10-6

2007 Buccaneers 4-12 to 9-7

2008 Dolphins 1-15 to 11-5*

2009 Saints 8-8 to 13-3

2010 Chiefs 4-12 to 10-6

2011 Texans 6-10 to 10-6

2011 Broncos 4-12 to 8-8*

2012 Redskins 5-11 to 10-6

2013 Panthers 7-9 to 12-4

2013 Eagles 4-12 to 10-6*

2015 Redskins 4-12 to 9-7

2016 Cowboys 4-12 to 13-3

2017 Jaguars 3-13 to 10-6*

2017 Eagles 7-9 to 13-3

2018 Bears 5-11 to 12-4*

2020 Washington Football Team 3-13 to 7-9*

2021 Bengals 4-11 to 10-7

2022 Jaguars 3-14 to 9-8*

2023 Texans 3-13-1 to 10-7*

Twitter: BearsOnSI

Published |Modified
Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.