Bear Digest

A Sure Thing? Caleb Williams' Hitting Over for Passing Yardage

CBS gaming experts Jason LaCanfora and Emory Hunt agree in a video that Bears rookie passer has a very low bar set, especially with the Vegas over/under.

Gene Chamberlain

Caleb Williams whips the ball out to a receiver during passing drills at Bears training camp. His over/under for passing yards this year is 3,475.5 yards.
Caleb Williams whips the ball out to a receiver during passing drills at Bears training camp. His over/under for passing yards this year is 3,475.5 yards. / David Banks-USA TODAY Sports
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The Bears might be the subject of one of the easier prop bets to win  for this coming season.

At least a pair of CBS sports analysts on sports betting have suggested as much. Jason La Canfora and Emory Hunt both agree Caleb Williams should have little problem going over the 3,475.5-yard total for passing yards this season posted by FanDuel.

This was also the thinking of SI's Conor Orr when he projected rookie QBs' efforts. Bears On SI concluded the same thing earlier this offseason.

While this would be a top 15 all-time for rookie passers, both Hunt and La Canfora agree it's a case where there is too much help and the situation lends itself to Williams going over.

"The 17th game is why like this number to go over, plus he's a very talented quarterback," Hunt said. "He was my No. 1 quarterback, I guess everybody's No. 1 quarterback coming into this draft.

"And when you look at all the weapons that they have in tow, receiver, tight ends and pass-catching backs, good protection up front. This is tailor-made for Caleb Williams to hit the ground running."

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Even La Canfora can' disagree, and his assessment of anything to do with the Bears has often taken on a negative tone over the years in his various jobs.

La Canfora conclusion seems sound here even if his logic does not.

"When I look at a lot of these player futures, I generally do it especially with young players, to the portal of the coach and the coordinator and how much pressure they're under and sort of what's the back story here," La Canfora said. "And let's be real, the Chicago Bears have been looking for a quarterback, we all know, right, since Sid Luckman. And Eberflus gets him. He's got a year with him. If it doesn't work out, if it doesn't look the way ownership thinks it should look, ownership, guess what? They're going to go get an offensive-minded head coach, probably a play caller from Sean McVay's family tree."

The logic of what they'll do in 2025 at coach doesn't really seem to have much impact on what Williams does for yardage this year and, in fact, might even work against him reaching the over total. Eberflus is not an offensive coach, it's true, and as a result he is more likely to be playing it closer to the vest to help his defense and take fewer chances.

La Canfora is supposed to be focusing on this year, not next year. There is no direct correlation.

"I think they're a good team, an ascending team," La Canfora said. "I don't think they're a great team."

But he sees plenty of opportunity for Williams to get some inflated passing yardage numbers. This definitely seems the case.

"I think he's good for 3,500, 3,700 passing yards something like that," La Canfora said.

There are legitimate reasons to doubt the Bears can win enough games for the playoffs but hitting a relatively low number of passing yards is likely barring an injury.

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Gene Chamberlain
GENE CHAMBERLAIN

BearDigest.com publisher Gene Chamberlain has covered the Chicago Bears full time as a beat writer since 1994 and prior to this on a part-time basis for 10 years. He covered the Bears as a beat writer for Suburban Chicago Newspapers, the Daily Southtown, Copley News Service and has been a contributor for the Daily Herald, the Associated Press, Bear Report, CBS Sports.com and The Sporting News. He also has worked a prep sports writer for Tribune Newspapers and Sun-Times newspapers.